Thursday 22 July 2021

Matchplay quarters

Pity about de Sousa. Thought he was going to be a lock to win at more than one stage of the match, but fair play to Smith for getting through it. Would be great if he finally breaks his major duck, would probably be the player I want to win from his half of the draw (would take whoever wins from Ratajski/Rydz in the other half).

Quarters ongoing, the Ratajski/Rydz line looks spot on, Krzysztof's been playing more than well enough to justify his price, I'm getting it spot on 75/25, so nothing of value there. Price/DvdB is close to the same story, Price is correctly favourite, but he's not a 4/6 (only available on one obscure book) favourite. It's a 55/45 matchup. Sadly, nowhere's offering anything like long enough to make the defending champion any sort of value.

Tomorrow starts with Wright/Smith, I've got Wright as a bit better than 60%, but not quite a two in three winner. The market agrees. Which just leaves the van Gerwen/Aspinall game - I thought Nathan hadn't played well enough this season that 4/9 on van Gerwen might be considered value, even accounting for MvG playing better than results, but it isn't. It's more or less a perfect line.

As such, nothing can be recommended, and I doubt we see anything for the semis or final if the market's assessment of everyone that's left is as accurate as it appears right now. Maybe, just maybe, if Ratajski comes through he becomes undervalued, but we'll wait and see.

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