Tuesday 2 January 2024

Quarter final thoughts, semi final bets

Cross/Dobey - Jesus christ, that might have been the biggest collapse of all time. Dobey was absolutely cruising - then Cross only allows him one leg in the remainder of the match where he's one away from winning, Dobey only getting one dart at the bull in that one. Blimey.

Littler/Dolan - Thought Brendan would be more competitive in this one. First and third sets were obviously the key ones to have got, but it is what it is, and it's not as if Luke was playing badly, he likely still goes on to win the match even if Dolan had have got things to 3-3.

Williams/van Gerwen - What an upset. God knows what Michael was doing on his doubles, but it created enough chances for Scott, and he generally took them - I say generally, as he should have been 3-1 up at the third break but for missing set darts.

Humphries/Chisnall - Bit one sided. Chisnall played well. Humphries just played that bit better.

Onto the semis:

Cross/Littler - Think this is another one where the market hype is too much. Littler is not the better player here and should not be going off as favourite. That said, on newer samples it's pretty much a coinflip, and year long I'm only getting Cross at around 55% in the first place. That'd be enough to consider taking the 6/5 that's available in a couple of places, but it is not unreasonable to come to the conclusion that Luke's improved over the course of 2023 and the newer sample is the closer one to the mark. So no bet, but gun to your head I'm taking Cross.

Williams/Humphries - Really, really cannot see Luke making the same mistakes that van Gerwen did yesterday, he's just too used to winning and has not let being in tricky spots affect him in the slightest in this tournament. Coralbrokes and Hills are offering enough to play, 0.5u Humphries 1/6, I can't see any sample in the data where Scott even has a 10% chance of winning this one, so this looks like a fairly safe one. Williams' winning chances went up higher against van Gerwen, but Luke's seemingly even better. Cannot see any way lightning strikes twice.

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