Saturday, 22 November 2025

PC Finals round three projections

Wasn't able to get round two projections up. Simply knackered last night so couldn't get the data entered, but am now up to date, aided and abetted by a lot of quick wins in this afternoon's session. Usual form to not form trend with the composite figure at the end.

Gerwyn Price v Martin Schindler - 74/75/72/74
Nathan Aspinall v Danny Noppert - 58/58/47/54
Luke Littler v Ricardo Pietreczko - 95/95/94/95
Krzysztof Ratajski v Josh Rock - 16/14/23/18
Daryl Gurney v Adam Lipscombe - 47/71/72/63
Andrew Gilding v James Wade - 40/41/50/44
Jermaine Wattimena v Ryan Searle - 38/45/42/42
Chris Dobey v James Hurrell - 75/74/76/75

Most of these are pretty consistent across the board so I think we're relatively safe, the longer data throws out a fair bit of a difference for the Wade and Aspinall games, but neither are hugely variant and kind of make sense given the eye test on the two players I mention of late. The one that does look a bit odd is the Gurney one, which says on medium and long data Gurney's a solid favourite, but Adam rates to edge it of late. That doesn't seem crazy - Lipscombe's scoring nearer 92 than 91 on winning legs and just a shade under 90 overall with no notable consistency issue, while Gurney's a tad lower but over 90 overall with a pretty low (i.e. good) consistency number. Lipscombe isn't over the largest sample though (although still big enough to be reliable), and this must surely be unchartered territory in terms of both major depth run and match length size (I forget what he did in the UK Open). Up to you as to how you handle the intangibles in this one.

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