We're leaving together, but still it's farewell

So it's not going to be the classic changing of the guard match that many thought it might be, with the GOAT not making it through the semi final to face the old GOAT for one last match, instead it's still very much an old versus new game, as Phil Taylor, winner of a squillion major titles, faces up against Rob Cross, a professional for less than a year in just his second major final. In what must be a first, this will be the first time the two players have faced off against each other in any competition, somewhat understandable as Taylor's played none of the tour this year and Cross has played none of the tour prior to that, but still an amazing stat regardless. Their stats so far in this tournament are rather similar - Cross has won five more legs, slotting in 18 twelve dart legs to Taylor's 16, Taylor has an extra five visit leg won leading 40-39, while Cross leads the six visit leg won count 21-18, leaving just three legs between them in more than six visits, Cross bagging two to Phil's one. Cross has lost a lot more legs with several of his games going the distance, losing 72 legs at an average of 95.15, whereas Phil's lost just 43 at a slightly lower average of 94.06. So overall on this tournament, very little to separate them. If you look at the season long stats, there's not a huge amount of variation - recall from previous writeups that Phil has zero legs from before the Matchplay, so his figures for the first two stat rows will be identical and the variation is just down to Cross, and you can see that Cross does a bit better in the more recent stat range, which you'd kind of expect, as it wasn't until a few months into the circuit that Cross really exploded in form. Take out the period from the Matchplay to the European Championship and Phil does ever so slightly better on the numbers, perhaps surprising given you're removing a tournament that Taylor won, but then look at just this tournament and you get the best sample for Phil outside of the full data set.

I've calculated the match score figures on a set by set basis for one reason only - it's Taylor, and he's been doing that thing again where he gives away the darts even if he wins them, so I can safely project Rob throwing first (Rob winning the bull and giving Taylor the darts would be great stuff), so the match scores will naturally lean towards Cross taking an even number of sets in the cases Phil wins, and Phil taking an odd number of sets when Cross wins. If that doesn't make sense, think about what Taylor needs to do to win exactly 7-1, 7-3 or 7-5 - he needs to close the match out in a set where Cross has the darts. You can see in the graphic that the median score in every data set is a game that goes the distance - this threatens to be an extremely tight game, and the market reflects that with Phil being a generally available 10/11 and Cross a generally available evens, very slightly longer on some obscure books. As such, I'm not placing any bets on this as it's way too tight to call. If you are wanting to bet, it's a case of how much you think Phil's experience will count for - he's played a trillion finals, been there, done everything, but it also is a question of how you think Phil will react when tested, as you feel he surely will be here. Lewis might have asked a few questions if he'd pinned some key doubles, Anderson's score was close but the game wasn't as close as the scoreline suggested, whereas Cross has been taken to deciders three times and survived match darts in two of those games, so he will not be concerned if the game becomes close. If Cross is able to hold his throw in the initial sets and get a break, perhaps to lead 4-1, then it asks big questions of Taylor and becomes a question of whether he can answer them.

Edit 1/1/18 morning - have updated the graph on the data sheet, while my explanations indicate that Cross is likely having the darts first, the calculations were made based on Taylor having it, whoops. This is now corrected (was only throwing some of the more probable scores off by a percent or so), but still, you're not actually placing bets on silly markets like correct scores, are you?

Semi Final not so mega post

What a great day of darts. With the scheduling it's not really possible to get anything super in depth up despite the games taking place in the evening - it's a Saturday which means it's a football day, normal service will be resumed for the final, but for now I'll just shove all the figures through the master computer and see what gets thrown up. Given the way the matches have worked out, I don't see a great deal of value in doing anything other than the full year - van Gerwen and Cross have such huge samples on everything that I don't think there'll be a lot of variance in any given chunk of the data, whereas Lewis and Taylor's data will look the same, if only because so much of it is rear-loaded due to their limited schedules for differing reasons during the first half of the year.

van Gerwen against Cross is one that we've seen many times before, van Gerwen's come through every time on the big stage, but not without a few scares, the biggest coming in the Grand Slam where he was pushed to a decider in the group stage and was only 3 legs better out of 29 in the knockout stage. Cross does have a win over van Gerwen this year, but he's been close quite a few times, so let's see what the figures say.

Unsurprisingly, the data favours van Gerwen - reckoning that he wins his sets on throw over 70% of the time, compared to Cross falling just short of 44%. Grouping things together the most likely result looks to be a van Gerwen 6-3 or 6-4 victory (for those who are interested, I look at sets in pairs, so that I don't need to consider superfluous variables such has who has won the darts - I don't faff with correct score betting so it's irrelevant to me), which is kind of what you would think, but it only seems a fraction more likely than a van Gerwen victory 6-1 or 6-2. It's pulling through 72% for van Gerwen to win overall compared to Cross at 11%, with the remaining 17% going to a deciding set. I'd honestly have thought this would be closer, but van Gerwen's ridiculous 25%+ rate of killing in twelve darts or less compared to Rob's 16% is probably something that the model thinks is just too hard to overcome in what is quite a long match in a race to 11 sets. The marked has it at around 80/20 van Gerwen, not too unexpected in that it's closer than the van Barneveld game (and he really should have come through that), so if I was going to bet anything it would probably be just on the Dutchman, but I think that Cross is probably playing better than his whole year figures now, whereas van Gerwen is maybe slightly below, but it's not by much and it's not by enough to swing it into betting on Cross to get through.

The other game is Phil Taylor up against Jamie Lewis, the Power having come through a 5-3 game against Gary Anderson that is probably a bit closer than the actual run of the game suggested, whereas Lewis swept Darren Webster with relative ease and will be much more rested up than Phil, which could be a factor. The more pertinent factors will probably be the crowd being on Phil's side, Phil's enormous banks of experience, and Phil seeming to peak at the right time in the tournament. Despite Jamie's incredible performances in this tournament, the model still favours Taylor - reckoning that he holds his set on throw 63% of the time, whereas Lewis is a touch over 51% - so in theory a closer game, while the bookies have it a bit more one sided at 2/9 Taylor against 9/2 Lewis (only a percentage point or two mind you). Over the course of a long match, the model reckons that the most likely outcome is a close Taylor win, 6-3 or 6-4 being the most likely outcome at nearly 30% of all trials, with Phil coming through 53% of the time overall compared to Lewis grabbing 24% of wins, with the remaining 23% being decided in an eleventh set. This should hint at a Lewis bet, but I think that a bunch of intangibles mentioned earlier could come into play enough that it moves things into where I doubt there's much of an edge, so I'll leave this one alone. It could also play into Lewis's mind that he's played Phil twice before - once in a final on the European Tour, where he lost 6-1, and then again on the floor three years later, where he lost 6-0. Jamie's a different player now, but Phil isn't.

Quarter Final Preview Megapost

72 men entered, 8 remain

Let's first talk about the lines. The bookies have the Lewis and Taylor matches as flips, Cross as around a 75/25 favourite, and van Gerwen as a 85/15 favourite more or less. If we've learned anything from this tournament it's that we should take nothing for granted, so how shall we go about analysing these games?

We'll kick off at the start with the van Gerwen/van Barnveld match, which with no disrespect meant to anyone else left in at this stage, is one of the two games that will create the most interest. They've met twice before in world championships - van Gerwen put Barney out in the semi final last year 6-2, in a game where both were playing very well and one where commentators that don't grasp that averages are positively correlated will have gone "Barney's averaging some big number and he's getting destroyed". However, two years previously, Raymond pulled off a big upset in a 4-3 victory at the last sixteen stage resulting in a level series at this level. This game is right in between the two in terms of length, and they've got a big history of games to draw upon - 50 previous meetings per dartsdatabase with Michael holding a 31-18-1 lead, although once van Gerwen started getting it, it's been a bit more one sided - following Barney's win in the Grand Slam final in 2012, van Gerwen's had a 27-9-1 clip - half of Barney's wins were when van Gerwen was still a kid, he had an eight game losing streak but that was over five calendar years.

Barney's really had no trouble to this stage, Vincent was looking alright early but couldn't put together anything consistent and seemed to go to pieces once behind, whereas van Gerwen should have been 3-2 down in sets to Gerwyn Price, but put him away fairly easily once the Welshman blew his chance. The best we can get on Barney is 11/2, which needs us to get to around 16% equity in order to consider a bet on him. He seems live in this one, has potentially crucially had a day off which should help him more than it would help van Gerwen, and he's playing well - Michael's not really looked quite himself, which is odd to say given that he's managed to dispatch an opponent in twelve straight legs without reply earlier in this tournament. It probably doesn't happen, but it is a good price and if it stays close through four sets the crowd could get into it - 0.1u van Barneveld 11/2

Second game is Dimitri van den Bergh, fresh off a biggest win of his life against Mensur Suljovic, in straight sets no less, against Rob Cross, the story of the year to date who's looking to push through to yet another potential showdown against Michael van Gerwen. I can't find any head to head record in dartsdatabase, while they do have a minimum of two games, it's probable that there may be nothing previous, and one game isn't going to mean a great deal. Dimitri beating Suljovic wasn't that much of a surprise - my read before the game was that the line looked OK and given Mensur didn't look too great in his first couple of games he seemed live. Dimitri was able to get twelve legs, but was allowed to get half of them in more than fifteen darts. Cross got past a determined John Henderson in this round, getting 10/13 legs in fifteen darts, and while the scoreline looks one sided, the actual game could have been a lot closer, with the big Scot hitting some key scores to threaten to take sets only for Cross to come through when it mattered.

Cross is priced up at 3/10 which seems more or less on the money. Both are in unchartered territory and this should be a good game, particularly since Dimitri was able to get a win over a big name on a big stage, and he has the potential to keep things close, but even if he does, Cross showed against Michael Smith that he can come through if the other guy lets him off, so I'll not be betting on this one.

The third game is the unlikely lineup of Darren Webster against Jamie Lewis. Jamie's been a revelation, dominating his first three games (including the prelim) before not quite hitting the huge peaks that he did earlier against James Richardson, but still keeping up the scoring power for long enough to come from a set down to win 4-1. Webster had probably his best game to date to dispatch the Spanish qualifier Antonio Alcinas (not having any of that Toni bollocks) in straight sets, but in that game he only won half of his legs in fifteen darts. Tag on that against Whitlock he could only get one out of twelve legs won in fifteen darts, that asks the question - will Lewis be able to deny him the chances he's been taking to get him to this stage?

I think it's perfectly possible, and I think a few of the intangibles have been answered in tonight's game against Richardson. Up until that game, he's basically been playing with no pressure, not expected to do anything, and he's played a lights out game. Against Richardson, he was the favourite and expected to win, and probably my strongest play of the tournament if you factor in the bet sizing and the odds - and he came from a set down (on Richardson's throw to be fair), still managed to slot in another three twelve dart legs, which added on to the six fifteen dart legs to make 9/14 legs won in par. Webster's an opponent kind of in the middle - he's not as good as Wright, he's better than Richardson, but he has Richardson's dogged mentality to be able to grind things out. We can grab 5/6 on this one, which I think I will, I'm just going to go for a soft 0.5u Lewis 5/6, if only because there's a small sample, but he is doing enough to make me think he gets there often enough.

Our final game could potentially be Phil Taylor's final game ever (until he gets bored in ten months and enters the BDO qualifiers for a laugh and binks Lakeside), as he faces Gary Anderson, twice winner here. Phil seemed to be, at least on the numbers, finally clicking against Keegan Brown, averaging 101 and slotting in 9/12 won legs in fifteen darts, which included three twelve dart legs. Anderson was able to come through against Steve West, but that game could have been a lot closer than the 4-2 scoreline suggested - West had 60 for the set but only managed to get one dart at double, shanking the first attempt into the five and allowing Ando to pin 104 to break, he missed another dart at double for the fourth set to boot. Pin those and we're talking about him here instead, oh well. Ando's looked progressively worse in each game to this stage, whereas Phil's looked a bit better each time, which is an interesting trend.

It's a big step up in quality for Phil - nothing against Dobey, Pipe or Brown, but Gary Anderson is an entire different level of quality. The bookies have him as a tiny, tiny favourite, and the question is whether Phil can maintain the level of play he has over a nine set match. Both players have played today and will be straight in, but you have to think that the short turn around will favour Anderson, and the recent head to head favours Anderson - 3-1-1 in his favour, while none are ranked Phil only got the one win in the second round of the Premier League, when both were probably looking safe to advance anyway. I'm going to avoid this one.

Enjoy the event, it should be spectacular.

Round 3 Previews Final Part - Now not featuring Peter Wright

Jamie Lewis v James Richardson (evening session, 28th)

Round 1: Lewis 3-0 vs Clayton, Richardson 3-0 vs K Huybrechts
Round 2: Lewis 4-1 vs Wright, Richardson 4-1 vs Norris

2017 head to head record: Lewis 1-0 (minor ranked)
All time head to head record: Lewis 3-2 (all minor ranked)

Set winning chances on throw (all 2017): Lewis 67.43%, Richardson 45.18%
Set winning chances on throw (Matchplay onwards): Lewis 80.95%, Richardson 30.01%
Set winning chances on throw (Euro Champs onwards): Lewis 86.51%, Richardson 21.12%

Scoreline projections (all 2017): 13.66% 4-0 Lewis, 43.11% 4-1/4-2 Lewis, 27.05% 3-3, 14.00% 4-1/4-2 Richardson, 2.17% 4-0 Richardson
Scoreline projections (Matchplay onwards): 32.11% 4-0 Lewis, 51.89% 4-1/4-2 Lewis, 12.63% 3-3, 3.04% 4-1/4-2 Richardson, 0.33% 4-0 Richardson

Scoreline projections (Euro Champs onwards): 46.57% 4-0 Lewis, 46.69% 4-1/4-2 Lewis, 5.79% 3-3, 0.87% 4-1/4-2 Richardson, 0.08% 4-0 Richardson

As mentioned on Twitter earlier today, this is the first match at this stage of the tournament not to feature a seeded player in eleven years, dating back to Darren Webster against Wynand Havenga in Barney's last title run, following James Richardson eliminating Alan Norris to follow up his first round win over Kim Huybrechts, and Jamie Lewis pulling off an upset that nobody apart from FRH readers saw coming with a sensational performance featuring seven twelve dart legs (nobody else has had more than four in a match so far this year, and nobody has had seven this calendar year - obviously you need a decent length match to do that but the last player to do that was van Gerwen in last year's final, where he had 13) and it could easily have been more, not getting a fourth visit after the failed nine dart attempt for example. These numbers all heavily favour Lewis, and for very simple reasons - he's been playing the darts of his life by a large distance, these darts make up the bulk of his sample size, and as I mentioned in the preview of the Wright game, his darts in the run up to the worlds weren't bad either. Richardson's games haven't been amazing - he has not hit a twelve dart leg so far this tournament (Lewis has twelve), and while his game against Huybrechts was clean enough, against Norris he could only get six from twelve legs in fifteen darts, and in the ten legs he let Norris win, he averaged 76.

We've not had a bet yet in this round, but I think we have one here, because the market has this one surprisingly close - 1.5u Lewis 4/7. Even in the whole 2017 sample, Lewis gets home over three times as often as Richardson does, which is ample enough to bet on its own, factor in that Lewis is playing well and the numbers are overwhelmingly in his favour, the only question is whether we don't bet larger. Richardson hasn't played someone that's been playing well yet - he has now, and waiting to grab chances may just see him not get chances at all.

Will not do the MvG/Barney preview now, will group all the quarters in one post. Price, for me, did enough tonight to make the Premier League, pity he threw away the fifth set or that could have been epic.

Round 3 Previews Part 4 - Alcinas/Webster

(23) Darren Webster v Antonio Alcinas (afternoon session, 28th)

Round 1: Webster 3-2 vs Petersen, Alcinas 3-1 vs Reyes
Round 2: Webster 4-1 vs Whitlock, Alcinas 4-1 vs Münch

2017 head to head record: 1-1 (1-0 Webster major ranked, 1-0 Alcinas minor ranked)
All time head to head record: Webster 3-1 (1-0 Webster major ranked, 2-1 Webster minor ranked)

Set winning chances on throw (all 2017): Webster 74.49%, Alcinas 37.27%
Set winning chances on throw (Matchplay onwards): Webster 65.08%, Alcinas 48.14%
Set winning chances on throw (Euro Champs onwards): Webster 62.94%, Alcinas 51.09%

Scoreline projections (all 2017): 21.84% 4-0 Webster, 50.12% 4-1/4-2 Webster, 20.05% 3-3, 7.10% 4-1/4-2 Alcinas, 0.90% 4-0 Alcinas
Scoreline projections (Matchplay onwards): 11.39% 4-0 Webster, 39.84% 4-1/4-2 Webster, 28.91% 3-3, 17.03% 4-1/4-2 Alcinas, 2.83% 4-0 Alcinas

Scoreline projections (Euro Champs onwards): 9.48% 4-0 Webster, 36.47% 4-1/4-2 Webster, 30.30% 3-3, 20.17% 4-1/4-2 Alcinas, 3.58% 4-0 Alcinas

Our seventh and penultimate preview sees a last sixteen competitor from the previous year, Darren Webster, face a much easier opponent than he did last year in Antonio Alcinas. Looking at Alcinas first, the winner of the Spanish qualifier was much improved in his second round game this afternoon against Münch, winning nine of fourteen legs against the German qualifier in fifteen darts or less including two legs in twelve visits, while Kevin wasn't as good as he was against Lewis, it was still a marked improvement from the Spaniard and somewhat akin to the form that he had in his previous world championship outings and possibly something like the form his results on the floor might have indicated. Webster was in a redo from last year, beating Whitlock 4-1 but with a much worse performance, only taking two out of twelve won legs in fifteen darts or less - he was averaging 94 in the eight legs Whitlock took though, so maybe it wasn't all bad and he was just taking what Whitlock was giving him and keeping the Aussie under pressure at other times.

These two have met before, and it was very recent too - a 6-3 win for Webster in the Players Championship Finals, where Webster finished it off with a ten dart leg. Alcinas didn't play too badly there, only losing by the one break with Webster having the darts, and getting two of his legs in the par of fifteen darts, the same ratio as Darren did. Alcinas's numbers do have a sample size problem, with no play between the Matchplay and the Euros the only difference between the two sets of figures is as a result of changes to what Webster did. The market's opened up at not quite 75/25 in Webster's favour - in the whole year stats we should pile in, but that would be silly given we know Alcinas's form is pointed more towards this end of the season, where over the Matchplay set of data, Webster clocks out before a decider in a 51/20 ratio which is as close to the market line as to be the same, and in the European set of data which favours Alcinas a bit further (it's weighting Webster's worlds a bit stronger, at more than a third of the sample), but still 46/24 in Webster's favour. That's not even 2/1 though, and we're being offered better than that on the underdog. I'm not inclined to bet it though, as I don't think Webster will play quite so poorly, and it remains to be seen whether Antonio can do this twice in a row on TV.

That makes it a seventh no bet - Münch losing costs us our big winning streak, but Webster getting home keeps things ticking upwards slightly, and makes the Jamie Lewis bet tonight a freeroll.

I will update the FRH rankings now at the end of the second round - there's still one game to go, but Peter Wright can't move, so if Lewis pulls off the upset just move him up two places to above Richard North. Bolded players are still alive as of right now:

1 Michael van Gerwen
2 Peter Wright
3 Daryl Gurney
4 Gary Anderson
5 Mensur Suljovic
6 Phil Taylor
7 Simon Whitlock
8 Rob Cross
9 Dave Chisnall
10 Michael Smith
11 Gerwyn Price
12 Raymond van Barneveld
13 Alan Norris
14 Ian White
15 James Wade
16 Benito van de Pas
17 Kim Huybrechts
18 Darren Webster
19 Jelle Klaasen
20 Joe Cullen
21 Adrian Lewis
22 Stephen Bunting
23 Mervyn King
24 Kyle Anderson
25 Steve Beaton
26 John Henderson
27 Jonny Clayton
28 Justin Pipe
29 Cristo Reyes
30 Robert Thornton
31 Steve West
32 James Wilson
33 Vincent van der Voort
34 Christian Kist
35 Chris Dobey
36 Jermaine Wattimena
37 Mark Webster
38 Dimitri van den Bergh
39 Brendan Dolan
40 James Richardson
41 Ronny Huybrechts
42 Jan Dekker
43 Richard North
44 Keegan Brown
45 Jamie Lewis
46 Robbie Green
47 Zoran Lerchbacher
48 Kevin Painter
49 Steve Lennon
50 Jamie Caven
51 Antonio Alcinas

With 13 grand to the winner of each last 16 match there's room for some movement - Cross can overtake Whitlock, Barney can overtake Price should Price lose, Webster can get into the top 16, Henderson can get above Adrian Lewis, West can get above Clayton, van der Voort can get above Wilson, van den Bergh can pass Kist, Richardson and Lewis can pass Dobey, Brown can pass Dolan, and Alcinas can pass North.

Round 3 Previews Part 3 - Henderson/Cross, Suljovic/van den Bergh

(20) Rob Cross v (29) John Henderson (afternoon session, 28th)

Round 1: Cross 3-0 vs Asada, Henderson 3-0 vs Kantele
Round 2: Cross 4-3 vs M Smith, Henderson 4-2 vs Gurney

2017 head to head record: Cross 2-1 (all minor ranked games)
All time head to head record: Cross 2-1 (all minor ranked games)

Set winning chances on throw (all 2017): Cross 70.17%, Henderson 44.31%
Set winning chances on throw (Matchplay onwards): Cross 72.12%, Henderson 41.79%
Set winning chances on throw (Euro Champs onwards): Cross 75.32%, Henderson 37.01%

Scoreline projections (all 2017): 15.27% 4-0 Cross, 45.29% 4-1/4-2 Cross, 25.64% 3-3, 12.06% 4-1/4-2 Henderson, 1.75% 4-0 Henderson
Scoreline projections (Matchplay onwards): 17.62% 4-0 Cross, 47.53% 4-1/4-2 Cross, 23.58% 3-3, 9.91% 4-1/4-2 Henderson, 1.36% 4-0 Henderson

Scoreline projections (Euro Champs onwards): 22.51% 4-0 Cross, 50.50% 4-1/4-2 Cross, 19.48% 3-3, 6.68% 4-1/4-2 Henderson, 0.83% 4-0 Henderson

Now for what's easily the most interesting quarter of the last sixteen that's come up so far, if only because the previous analysis features three huge odds on favourites, and the first match we'll look at is Rob Cross, who cruised through his first round game but then needed to survive match darts from Michael Smith in the second round in a high scoring instant classic featuring a staggering 29 180's, against John Henderson, who after a routine win against Marko Kantele, produced the biggest shock of the tournament so far in terms of the highest seed going out (if you think that Münch > Lewis wasn't a bigger shock then you're wrong), avenging his Grand Prix loss against Daryl Gurney with relentless ton scoring. His reward for that win is to be priced as an even bigger underdog in this round.

Henderson needs to win this game 15% of the time for us to even start to consider a bet, and he's nearly there in the largest sample and would easily make up the difference in those games he wins 4-3, but the figures become more and more in favour of Cross as the year goes on, with the most recent sample where Cross is in peak form reckoning Henderson doesn't even get to 8%, leaving him needing to win a deciding set more than one time in three, which would seem a big ask. Henderson has at least got a win over Cross this year, where he won 6-4 in the first of the Ireland Pro Tour events, and kept him close the following day, only losing a deciding leg. The other game was 6-1 in favour of Cross, but that was right at the start of the year. As ever, also bear in mind that the stats don't include the Grand Prix, so while it doesn't include Henderson's best run, it also doesn't include Cross bombing out in the opening round, then again as he only won two legs there it's not going to dent the figures in the slightest.

I can't recommend a bet either way. Henderson probably has the game to get there just about often enough that the line looks close enough to accurate. It's not going to be one where the Henderson, after pulling off an upset, is then spent and can't go further, he'll have had plenty of time between games and it wasn't a factor after beating Michael van Gerwen in Dublin. Then again, Cross is so good that I really don't think he messes this one up.

(5) Mensur Suljovic v Dimitri van den Bergh (afternoon session, 28th)

Round 1: Suljovic 3-0 vs Painter, van den Bergh 3-1 vs Bunting
Round 2: Suljovic 4-2 vs Thornton, van den Bergh 4-2 vs Dekker

2017 head to head record: 0-0 (most recent game: 2015)
All time head to head record: 2-2 (all minor ranked games)

Set winning chances on throw (all 2017): Suljovic 64.95%, van den Bergh 50.94%
Set winning chances on throw (Matchplay onwards): Suljovic 49.90%, van den Bergh 66.46%
Set winning chances on throw (Euro Champs onwards): Suljovic 48.19%, van den Bergh 69.93%

Scoreline projections (all 2017): 10.15% 4-0 Suljovic, 38.00% 4-1/4-2 Suljovic, 29.88% 3-3, 18.78% 4-1/4-2 van den Bergh, 3.19% 4-0 van den Bergh
Scoreline projections (Matchplay onwards): 2.80% 4-0 Suljovic, 17.20% 4-1/4-2 Suljovic, 29.18% 3-3, 39.73% 4-1/4-2 van den Bergh, 11.09% 4-0 van den Bergh

Scoreline projections (Euro Champs onwards): 2.10% 4-0 Suljovic, 14.14% 4-1/4-2 Suljovic, 27.49% 3-3, 43.14% 4-1/4-2 van den Bergh, 13.13% 4-0 van den Bergh

Hmm, now for the first time in this round we've got a game where the figures look a bit different to what you might expect. Mensur's around a 65/35 favourite in the market, and looking at the whole year's worth of stats, he gets home 48/22 before a deciding set, which is nearly the same ratio, but from the Matchplay onwards, Dimitri comes in as a very tidy favourite. We only need to look at the preview for the previous round's game against Jan Dekker - Dimitri has not played a lot of darts at all since the Matchplay, and the primary chunk of data then was his first round match, where he was godmoding. That Dekker match wasn't quite the same story, but was still solid - nearly a 95 average, 50%+ on doubles, six maximums, half his legs won in fifteen darts. That summarises Dimitri's run, Mensur's has been mediocre by his own standards, not breaking 95 in either game on standard average metrics, needing a huge out to avoid a final set against Thornton who'd just missed bull to force the issue, only just getting over 50% in legs won in fifteen darts or less (12 from 23), and he's only managed the one twelve dart leg - the final leg against Thornton where he needed it the most.

The market has already adjusted quite a bit as mentioned, so the take people have to make is whether van den Bergh, if he had more sample than the 150 legs (split evenly between wins and losses) isn't enough to give a true idea of form over a long period and that he wouldn't be able to sustain his stats and Mensur should thus be the favourite, or whether the more recent information is more pertinent, and that Dimitri's form (and Mensur's lack of it) is the critical bit of data that you're looking for and he's a very live underdog. The obvious thing is that Mensur will need to improve - if he plays as he has been doing, Dimitri's current game, even the not quite so excellent one he showed against Dekker, should be enough to win. I think Mensur will improve, but I think to about the point where he makes it such that it's not a bet. My stats don't include the world youth, which Dimitri won, or the World Series finals where Dimitri made the quarters. Mensur's been here in big TV events a lot more than Dimitri has, and while he's full of confidence, this is already the deepest he's run in any major event and the potential enormity of what he might do could easily catch up with him.

Six of the last sixteen written up, and still no bets. Seems odd, but that's where we are. Expect the Whitlock/Wright section to appear tomorrow evening/Thursday morning, I'll likely push to get the Whitlock game up first as all the information should be ready when I'm back from work and it's the first game on on Thursday, the Wright game may wait until the morning.

Round 3 Previews Part 2 - Taylor/Brown, Anderson/West

Wanted this up yesterday but dartsdatabase was down all evening and I couldn't get the head to head stats, oh well, it's here now!

(6) Phil Taylor v Keegan Brown (evening session, 28th)

Round 1: Taylor 3-1 vs Dobey, Brown 3-2 vs Wade
Round 2: Taylor 4-0 vs Pipe, Brown 4-2 vs Lerchbacher

2017 head to head record: 0-0 (most recent game: 2014)
All time head to head record: 2-2 (all minor ranked games)

Set winning chances on throw (all 2017): Taylor 79.55%, Brown 32.30%
Set winning chances on throw (Matchplay onwards): Taylor 79.84%, Brown 31.79%
Set winning chances on throw (Euro Champs onwards): Taylor 83.16%, Brown 29.67%

Scoreline projections (all 2017): 29.00% 4-0 Taylor, 52.03% 4-1/4-2 Taylor, 14.62% 3-3, 3.91% 4-1/4-2 Brown, 0.44% 4-0 Brown
Scoreline projections (Matchplay onwards): 29.66% 4-0 Taylor, 52.03% 4-1/4-2 Taylor, 14.19% 3-3, 3.71% 4-1/4-2 Brown, 0.41% 4-0 Brown

Scoreline projections (Euro Champs onwards): 34.21% 4-0 Taylor, 51.80% 4-1/4-2 Taylor, 11.27% 3-3, 2.47% 4-1/4-2 Brown, 0.25% 4-0 Brown

The first of two games which are so one sided that Taylor's a 1/12 shot and is the longer price sees the reigning Matchplay champion look to get a seventeenth and final world title, against surprise package Keegan Brown, who's doing a good job of rebuilding a career that peaked 2-3 years ago but has gone off the boil since. Taylor has had little trouble so far, only dropping the one set against Chris Dobey when he was already cruising in the match, and not dropping a set against Justin Pipe who played OK in patches but missed far too many doubles. Brown produced a great performance to see off James Wade in the opening round, but regressed quite a lot and was tangled up in a scrappy affair against Zoran Lerchbacher in the second round, each set going with throw until, at 3-2 in sets in a deciding leg, the Austrian missed one dart at tops for the set and let Keegan in to pin a 108 outshot for the match.

If Keegan is going to stand any chance, he's going to have to play with freedom and the quality that he showed in the first game - if he plays like he did against Lerchbacher, then this match may not go on very long at all. That said, if he does play as he did against Wade, then his chances are not completely zero - in that game he managed eight out of twelve legs won in fifteen darts or less (including one twelve darter), and was there or there abouts when Wade was winning with a 91 average in the losing legs. Phil so far this tournament has managed 16/23 legs in fifteen darts or less for about that same two in three ratio as Keegan managed against Wade, and only had the two twelve darters, and also averaged 90 in the legs that he lost, so overall their stats seem close to identical if you compare Phil's current tournament and Keegan's best game. This said, Phil hasn't been firing on all cylinders and may opt to try to crank it up a bit to warm up before a potential quarter final with Gary Anderson, Keegan may potentially be overawed with playing Phil (as Pipe appeared to be, at least in interviews) in what is the biggest match of his career to date, and will not have the crowd on his side - there's a lot of things that need to go perfectly for Brown to realise his best case scenario - which only puts him at a coinflip.

(3) Gary Anderson v Steve West (evening session, 28th)

Round 1: Anderson 3-0 vs J Smith, West 3-1 vs van de Pas
Round 2: Anderson 4-1 vs Lim, West 4-1 vs Wattimena

2017 head to head record: 3-0 Anderson (all minor ranked games)
All time head to head record: 5-1 Anderson (1-0 major ranked, 3-1 minor ranked, 1-0 unranked)

Set winning chances on throw (all 2017): Anderson 71.85%, West 39.59%
Set winning chances on throw (Matchplay onwards): Anderson 70.86%, West 40.66%
Set winning chances on throw (Euro Champs onwards): Anderson 71.87%, West 40.68%

Scoreline projections (all 2017): 18.84% 4-0 Anderson, 48.22% 4-1/4-2 Anderson, 22.58% 3-3, 9.11% 4-1/4-2 West, 1.24% 4-0 West
Scoreline projections (Matchplay onwards): 17.68% 4-0 Anderson, 47.31% 4-1/4-2 Anderson, 23.58% 3-3, 10.03% 4-1/4-2 West, 1.40% 4-0 West

Scoreline projections (Euro Champs onwards): 18.18% 4-0 Anderson, 47.83% 4-1/4-2 Anderson, 23.13% 3-3, 9.56% 4-1/4-2 West, 1.31% 4-0 West

Our second game sees twice world champion Gary Anderson looking to reclaim his title, facing winner of now two games on a world stage, Steve West. Anderson's looked very smooth so far defeating a pair of dangerous preliminary qualifiers, obliterating Jeff Smith in a second set for the ages, and putting two sets on the board without reply and holding off a nine dart attempt against Paul Lim before coming through 4-1. West has had a couple of young tricky Dutchmen to come through and they've been a bit different to each other - the opening game against Benito van de Pas saw him average over 95 as he slotted in seven out of eleven won legs in fifteen darts or less, whereas in his second round game against Wattimena, he won 4-1 but averaged under 88 despite hitting 50% of doubles - only hitting five legs out of twelve in fifteen darts or less.

I'm thinking that Anderson's playing far too well for West to stand any sort of chance in a first to four sets match. We've seen glimpses of what Anderson can do, and while we've also seen what West can do, both here and in spots throughout the year, I get the feeling that West may just be content to have reached this stage, and that if West's top game shows up, Anderson can just kick into another gear if needed. The stats are fairly consistent throughout the year (the only difference for Anderson between the first two samples being one UK Open match helps for that, with West not qualifying for that at all), and they all indicate that Anderson should be a prohibitive favourite. Maybe not quite as much of a favourite as the line suggests, but we don't have a whole lot of edge to start punting West at 12/1, especially when the non-stat part of the head can't really see a realistic path to victory for him.

Coming up later are previews of the Suljovic and Cross matches - stay tuned.