Wednesday, 27 December 2017

Round 3 Previews Part 4 - Alcinas/Webster

(23) Darren Webster v Antonio Alcinas (afternoon session, 28th)

Round 1: Webster 3-2 vs Petersen, Alcinas 3-1 vs Reyes
Round 2: Webster 4-1 vs Whitlock, Alcinas 4-1 vs Münch

2017 head to head record: 1-1 (1-0 Webster major ranked, 1-0 Alcinas minor ranked)
All time head to head record: Webster 3-1 (1-0 Webster major ranked, 2-1 Webster minor ranked)

Set winning chances on throw (all 2017): Webster 74.49%, Alcinas 37.27%
Set winning chances on throw (Matchplay onwards): Webster 65.08%, Alcinas 48.14%
Set winning chances on throw (Euro Champs onwards): Webster 62.94%, Alcinas 51.09%

Scoreline projections (all 2017): 21.84% 4-0 Webster, 50.12% 4-1/4-2 Webster, 20.05% 3-3, 7.10% 4-1/4-2 Alcinas, 0.90% 4-0 Alcinas
Scoreline projections (Matchplay onwards): 11.39% 4-0 Webster, 39.84% 4-1/4-2 Webster, 28.91% 3-3, 17.03% 4-1/4-2 Alcinas, 2.83% 4-0 Alcinas
Scoreline projections (Euro Champs onwards): 9.48% 4-0 Webster, 36.47% 4-1/4-2 Webster, 30.30% 3-3, 20.17% 4-1/4-2 Alcinas, 3.58% 4-0 Alcinas

Our seventh and penultimate preview sees a last sixteen competitor from the previous year, Darren Webster, face a much easier opponent than he did last year in Antonio Alcinas. Looking at Alcinas first, the winner of the Spanish qualifier was much improved in his second round game this afternoon against Münch, winning nine of fourteen legs against the German qualifier in fifteen darts or less including two legs in twelve visits, while Kevin wasn't as good as he was against Lewis, it was still a marked improvement from the Spaniard and somewhat akin to the form that he had in his previous world championship outings and possibly something like the form his results on the floor might have indicated. Webster was in a redo from last year, beating Whitlock 4-1 but with a much worse performance, only taking two out of twelve won legs in fifteen darts or less - he was averaging 94 in the eight legs Whitlock took though, so maybe it wasn't all bad and he was just taking what Whitlock was giving him and keeping the Aussie under pressure at other times.

These two have met before, and it was very recent too - a 6-3 win for Webster in the Players Championship Finals, where Webster finished it off with a ten dart leg. Alcinas didn't play too badly there, only losing by the one break with Webster having the darts, and getting two of his legs in the par of fifteen darts, the same ratio as Darren did. Alcinas's numbers do have a sample size problem, with no play between the Matchplay and the Euros the only difference between the two sets of figures is as a result of changes to what Webster did. The market's opened up at not quite 75/25 in Webster's favour - in the whole year stats we should pile in, but that would be silly given we know Alcinas's form is pointed more towards this end of the season, where over the Matchplay set of data, Webster clocks out before a decider in a 51/20 ratio which is as close to the market line as to be the same, and in the European set of data which favours Alcinas a bit further (it's weighting Webster's worlds a bit stronger, at more than a third of the sample), but still 46/24 in Webster's favour. That's not even 2/1 though, and we're being offered better than that on the underdog. I'm not inclined to bet it though, as I don't think Webster will play quite so poorly, and it remains to be seen whether Antonio can do this twice in a row on TV.

That makes it a seventh no bet - Münch losing costs us our big winning streak, but Webster getting home keeps things ticking upwards slightly, and makes the Jamie Lewis bet tonight a freeroll.

I will update the FRH rankings now at the end of the second round - there's still one game to go, but Peter Wright can't move, so if Lewis pulls off the upset just move him up two places to above Richard North. Bolded players are still alive as of right now:

1 Michael van Gerwen
2 Peter Wright
3 Daryl Gurney
4 Gary Anderson
5 Mensur Suljovic
6 Phil Taylor
7 Simon Whitlock
8 Rob Cross
9 Dave Chisnall
10 Michael Smith
11 Gerwyn Price
12 Raymond van Barneveld
13 Alan Norris
14 Ian White
15 James Wade
16 Benito van de Pas
17 Kim Huybrechts
18 Darren Webster
19 Jelle Klaasen
20 Joe Cullen
21 Adrian Lewis
22 Stephen Bunting
23 Mervyn King
24 Kyle Anderson
25 Steve Beaton
26 John Henderson
27 Jonny Clayton
28 Justin Pipe
29 Cristo Reyes
30 Robert Thornton
31 Steve West
32 James Wilson
33 Vincent van der Voort
34 Christian Kist
35 Chris Dobey
36 Jermaine Wattimena
37 Mark Webster
38 Dimitri van den Bergh
39 Brendan Dolan
40 James Richardson
41 Ronny Huybrechts
42 Jan Dekker
43 Richard North
44 Keegan Brown
45 Jamie Lewis
46 Robbie Green
47 Zoran Lerchbacher
48 Kevin Painter
49 Steve Lennon
50 Jamie Caven
51 Antonio Alcinas

With 13 grand to the winner of each last 16 match there's room for some movement - Cross can overtake Whitlock, Barney can overtake Price should Price lose, Webster can get into the top 16, Henderson can get above Adrian Lewis, West can get above Clayton, van der Voort can get above Wilson, van den Bergh can pass Kist, Richardson and Lewis can pass Dobey, Brown can pass Dolan, and Alcinas can pass North.

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