Round three projections

We're now at the stage where everyone has very good levels of data, except for Merk, who remains extremely limited short term and limited otherwise, so take that one under advisement, otherwise, here we go:

Plaisier/Ratajski - 69/68/44/60

Gilding/Woodhouse - 48/63/57/56

Clayton/Zonneveld - 63/70/69/67

Harrysson/Pietreczko - 39/49/39/42

Bunting/Hurrell - 89/87/84/87

Littler/Suljovic - 97/96/95/96

Schindler/Searle - 19/31/33/28

Heta/Cross - 64/43/39/49

Anderson/Wattimena - 73/67/68/69

van Veen/Razma - 94/90/82/89

Humphries/Clemens - 96/95/91/94

van Gerwen/Merk - 90/99/100/96

Hood/Meikle - 80/75/72/76

Evans/Manby - 55/48/53/52

Aspinall/Doets - 79/74/72/75

Rock/Rydz - 70/82/74/75

I suppose the ones that immediately look odd are the Plaisier game, given he's currently the underdog on the market, I think that one can be tempered somewhat given consistency numbers, Wesley's pretty much at database average since June, but Ratajski is barely over one point, which is an extremely low number, as such while Plaisier is scoring more per turn, overall it's only by half a point, made up of two better on winning legs but two worse on losing legs. The other one is Schindler being that much of a dog to Searle. This one I think is harder to explain - Schindler's more consistent but there's only about a point and a quarter between the two, it's just a combination of year long Searle scoring a point and a half per turn more than Schindler does, and that goes to over two when you look at winning legs, which is how I derive these numbers. Searle's in the top ten in the world in the percentage of legs he finishes in four visits, at 16% compared to Schindler's 12%, while his five visit percent is 65% against Schindler being just under 60%, and he has a small edge in six visit percentage as well. Over what's now first to four sets, that edge in every leg being played over and over is going to be hard to overcome. I think maybe we chuck out that short term data sample - Searle's inconsistency number is very high there at over 9 (Schindler is just under 3), so maybe we just use the two longer samples and say the shortest one should really be around where the other two are. Even then, that still points to him being a fair price of around 1.5 when he's 1.8 right now. Have a good Christmas all, I'll probably just post a round 4 projections post after the first two days are in the book, and not write up until the 31st as it's going to be manic.

Worlds round two day four thoughts

Tata/Meikle - Yikes. First set was scruffy. Second set was a bit better, third set maybe regressed a tad from there, fourth set might have been worse again especially with Tata forgetting how to hit a double in the first leg, and while the fifth set at least wasn't terrible, it wasn't anything to write home about. On paper it's a great comeback but both were such much of a muchness that it seems to me to be just variance that Jonny got up two nil rather than things going another way, nobody had a grip on that match at any point.

Gurney/Rydz - Now this one was a bit better, although still back and forth. First set was kind of a mix of missed opportunities, second and third sets Callan couldn't really get close to Gurney, but he couldn't continue it into set four, Callan playing his best stuff to date there. Then of course the first leg is a dumpster fire, could have avoided a whole string of holds where nobody got really close to breaking, until Rydz found an eleven darter in overtime, Gurney then giving him all the time in the world to kill the match off, not that he needed it.

Wattimena/Williams - This one was decidedly odd. Scott missed a bunch of doubles to go two legs down, does well to level but then runs into an eleven from Jermaine. Next set is kind of the same - except here it's more the scoring that saw Williams down 2-0. Third could easily have been a repeat except this time Jermaine missed the double for 2-0, and Scott claims it 3-1 instead. Williams then made it six straight legs to take us to a decider, only for Wattimena to sweep the decider. Solid set from Jermaine, but fuck knows what the hell Williams was thinking when, on 80 to save the match, he goes straight for double double, but on the VERY NEXT VISIT needing 10, he opts to split seconds after thinking going for the adjacent double twice is the optimal play? If you genuinely think you're good at D20 but shit at D5 then head's gone.

Wright/Merk - Don't think I'll go into this one too much. Merk was fine, but more or less anyone in the field would have won this one. Just sad to see Peter playing like this. But not surprising.

Noppert/Hood - Match of the year contender. I'll say nothing more. If you have not seen it, go away and watch it right now. It's that good.

Anderson/Scutt - Good to see Gary putting in a solid TV performance, and I think Connor putting him under a bit of early pressure with a fine start to take the opening set helped to some degree. After that, Ando looked really, really good. Even the legs Connor did take, Gary was scoring real heavily and forcing Scutt to take the chances he did take. Very promising going into what will be a tough third round match.

van Gerwen/O'Connor - This one had a fair bit of build up, especially given the players' respective first round matches, but this more or less got decided quickly after Willie missed the shot to take the first set quickly himself, proceeding to lose the next six legs and be two nil down in sets. In some he was close (was on 16 after nine in one ffs), others not so much. A set was pulled back, two good holds and then a maybe slightly fortunate break to avoid needing to serve it out, but would still need to break in the fourth and he couldn't find it. Maybe if Willie had have gone 1-0 up, this plays out a fair bit differently, but we'll never know.

Rock/Comito - Not a great deal to say in this one - much like yesterday, this one was just a big mismatch, Rock posting a ton average without ever really getting out of second gear. Which is a good sign for him. Joe wasn't bad but just couldn't score heavily enough by comparison.

Might have round three projections up later. Might be tomorrow. Might be Friday. It'll be in time to punt though.

Worlds round two day three thoughts

Beveridge/Razma - Not the most interesting of games really. Madars completely in control of set one, although for his break he was gifted things a bit when Darren botched his approach play. Set two was a bit more even with Beveridge coming into it more but Razma continued to look the better player. Darren then got a set back, but couldn't make it 2-2 when he should have done, and the Latvian played well enough to finish the match off. Not a bad standard, but a fairly forgettable match.

Nijman/Clemens - Oh dear oh dear. This one set me back a bit, and it was basically Wessel, for want of a better word, choking. First set, leg three was the break. Yes, people will look at him missing three clear at double, which is bad, but he only got those because Clemens got massively ahead after Nijman couldn't score with his first six darts. The second set was better, but this one can definitely be put down to missed doubles. Neither player did a lot wrong until Nijman, wanting 16 for the set with Gabriel sat on tops, misses three at it. Great. Then all the legs in set three were complete gifts. Real shame, I thought he'd got over not playing great on TV but I guess we'll have to wait for that.

Munyua/Doets - Was a fun story while it lasted, but Kevin's just too steady a player. David didn't play bad at all here, it was just a case of being a bit inconsistent, that'll come with more play, he can certainly hit a big score but, like in the last leg of set one, a 180 doesn't help if you're that far behind that your opponent is sat on a double.

Wade/Evans - Really, really not sure how Ricky pulled that one off. First set was four decent holds, then in the decider, Wade missed and Ricky didn't. Set two was a very good recovery by James, then set three was a bit like set one. Two good holds, then they swap gifts of breaks, before Wade picked a real bad time to have his worst scoring leg of the match. Wade levelled well, got up 2-0 without allowing Evans to be able to do much of anything, third leg was a bit scrappy but Wade got it anyway, then we go to set five. Huge out from Ricky to break and then get 2-0 up, but scoring fell apart in leg 3 (similar to the last game, 180 coming way too late), then doubling fell apart to close it out in leg 4. They both kind of do that in leg 5 but Evans eventually nicks it, before missing another match dart and letting Wade back in (awful choice of bull route, but it worked). Wade held well and then generated his own match dart which he couldn't take, then missed one to hold for 5-4 and it goes 4-5 instead, Ricky finding the perfect time to throw his best leg of the match.

van Veen/Soutar - Marker thrown down here. Soots did well to get set one, a mix of good legs of his own and taking advantage of maybe the only thing Gian did wrong all match, but after that it was pretty much all one way traffic. Soutar got another couple of legs, but van Veen was more or less unplayable after that.

Aspinall/Gates, Humphries/Lim, Manby/Sevada - I'm going to group these all together as they were pretty much all the same game really. First one was the closest one, but Gates never really threatened, one leg was very good but at least one of the other two was only gifted by Aspinall missing doubles. Lim didn't play badly, but Luke was on it - at least for eight legs, the ninth was a cluster, but that got corrected easily enough. The last one was the closest with the bookies but it should have been more one sided, Charlie was not playing as well as he can do, but frankly he didn't need to, Sevada only really doing anything at all in the one leg he held well in fifteen. Kind of makes for a poor session loading things up like this, but I think that's partially just the way things happened.

Worlds round two day two thoughts

Joyce/Ratajski - This one seemed too close to call pre game, but it didn't prove overly close as it played out. Ratajski had a great first set killing it with a fabulous check out, second one seemed kind of similar - excellent on throw, was not as good against the throw, but was able to take advantage of Ryan making a right mess of doubles in leg four. Joyce pulled things together somewhat in set three, although outside of the last leg he was allowing Krzysztof darts at double, while it'd be missed doubles again for Ryan in set four. A couple in leg one and more in leg two, basically killed his chances, and it was finished off solidly straight afterwards. A good marker.

Cullen/Suljovic - Oh boy, Cullen's lost his mind here. It is almost as if it is news to him that Suljovic does not play at the same pace as Ricky Evans. Jesus. First set was kind of meh from him outside of the 170 but he took it, then he broke to start set two after Mensur just couldn't score. That ought to have been ballgame, but Mensur had some good legs and took advantage of a poor one from Joe to level. Not even dead in the third set, started off great to go up 2-0, but then make a right mess of two legs and with Suljovic playing fine in the other, it's 2-1. Mensur then did just enough to take the match, for what it's worth.

Woodhouse/Hopp - Incredibly straight forward stuff for Luke. Max had chances in leg three to keep the first set alive, couldn't take them, god knows what happened in the last leg of set two, third set saw him get on the board, and he had half a chance - missed darts in leg three, and making a right mess of 71 in leg four. Not fabulous stuff from Luke but it really didn't need to be.

Cross/White - This became a bit of a slugfest. Cross was pretty good in set one, fell apart in set two, set three was a sweep without putting together a great deal of note, then set four was basically back and forth holds until White made a mess of 91 in the deciding leg, letting Rob in for 82 and the match. Nowhere near Rob's best stuff, but Ian really couldn't stay with him on the scoring (doubling was just fine).

Schindler/Barry - Some tight sets here. The first could have been easier for Martin, getting over the line when Keane missed set darts, second set saw Keane get a fortunate break to open, go up 2-0, only to see Martin get a couple of very well timed good legs to clear the set up. Third set saw four straight solid holds, only for something to happen with Keane's second dart at 72 for the set, allowing Schindler to step in and claim the match.

Price/Plaisier - We thought we had some shocks on day one. Hold my beer was announced. I wouldn't say necessarily the result - I did have a small flier on Wesley. More the size of the victory, I don't think anybody saw 3-0 coming in. First set was two good holds by Plaisier then a  break when neither could really score, set two was kind of similar, quick break, quick hold, Price gets one back but couldn't hit the one dart he had for 2-2 and Plaisier's three holds away. He then gets those - five visit hold, five visit hold, should have been another one but match darts were missed, however Gerwyn returned the favour and let Plaisier in for the match. This completely destroys the top quarter as a contest, sure Littler was massively odds on, but losing the 8 and 9 seeds early makes for an incredibly simple quarter final.

Littler/Davies - Davies didn't play badly here. At all. He just missed key doubles at important times, particularly in the first and last sets, and against Luke you can't be doing that. Kind of feel that if David had have nicked the first then Luke would have just stepped up a gear or two and kept him at arms length, but he didn't so we'll never know. 

Heta/Bellmont - Damon dodged a bullet here. Didn't show up at all in the first set, letting Stefan take it comfortably, then woke up and looked really solid in set two. Set three was then back to set one - really couldn't score, it wasn't quite as bad but it puts Damon on the ropes. Fourth set could very easily have gone south, missing one for the set and letting Bellmont in for 2-2 and darts for the match, but thankfully he missed two, then Heta brought out his best stuff when it mattered the most.

Worlds round two day one thoughts

Searle/Dolan - Pretty much as expected. Big chasm between the quality of the players. Brendan took the one leg in the first but otherwise couldn't get close, was comfortably swept in the second (although he should clearly have taken leg three), then was a bit closer in the third, don't bust leg four and it then might become a little bit interesting, but he didn't and it wasn't.

Harrysson/Sakai - I think most thought this one might be a bit closer than it was, but Harrysson moved on. Sakai was only actually close to a break in set one in the final leg, missing two clear for the set, pin that and who knows what might happen for the rest of the game. As was, that started a spate of misses to start set 2, giving Andreas the break, and he just served it out from there. Literally - no further breaks, and he didn't allow Motumo a dart to get a break either. Very nice professional job.

van Duijvenbode/Hurrell - First big shock. Hard to see what was going on - James didn't get going at all in the first set (this is somewhat of a theme in later matches), then looked the complete opposite in set two, then set three becomes weird. Dirk on a double after twelve, misses four and then gets broken, immediately sees Hurrell forget how to score and get the break back, then even more doubles missed, this time James making no mistake with a five visit hold (although he had at least a sixth if he wanted it). Dirk's fourth set was probably the best of the match to make it 2-2, then set five was basically dumpster fire of doubling - Hurrell with a 132 out forcing Dirk into a nine to break - Dirk gives himself a chance after James misses a couple of match darts - doesn't make the same mistake again when DvD misses even more doubles. Chances missed but got to credit Hurrell, he stepped in when he could.

Chisnall/Pietreczko - Bookies had this basically even, I had Dave as a moderate favourite, but maybe there's something underlying that isn't picked up in the data. First set was solid from Pietreczko, second set should have been Dave's but there were so many visits missing two or three clear at a double. Ricardo could probably have sewn this up 3-0 but he missed some doubles to let Chizzy back in (nowhere near as many), and while the fourth was a sweep, Pietreczko had a dart in every leg there as well. Final set saw Dave miss a match dart, a good old sportradar fuck up (thankfully they put the last set up on Youtube so I could see what actually happened), and Pietreczko advancing. Can't really describe this as a shock, but I'm sure some people will have done.

Smith/Zonneveld - Michael's now got the Doets/Zonneveld pair of worlds losses. And this one was basically just lack of scoring, at least in set one, Niels had enough time to get that 3-1 without too much trouble, Smith quickly upped his game with a good set two to level, but would then have a couple of key chances to take the lead - leg two saw Smith get six darts from 47 to break but fail, then he missed one dart in the decider to take it. Zonneveld then swept the fourth to take the match - Michael could really do nothing against the throw, but could have done a lot better in leg two. Pointless attempts at the big fish in that leg maybe cost him there.

Dobey/Gilding - Blimey, seeds are tumbling now. Dobey nicks set one, good combination of big checkouts and misses from both to get us to leg five there, Gilding looked fantastic in set two, only half chance being D7 at the end of a 122 for Dobey, otherwise nothing, while set three was kind of similar, although Chris had very good chances in the first leg, then we had what might have been a turning point with that 167 out from Dobey to break, but even after Andrew missed clear shots to break straight back, he didn't panic and came from 2-0 down to punish a bit of mediocre doubling from Chris and claim the match.

Bunting/Kumar - Really very little to say about this one. Nitin got a couple of legs, could maybe have pinched that one that went on for ages, but apart from that Stephen was always multiple visits ahead.

Probably sort day two later today.

Worlds evening day 8, day 9 reaction post

Round one is in the books. Surprisingly, more than half the seeded players' matches passed the piss break test, so I guess we can condone the expansion of the tournament, or more accurately the format of it, I've said before if the expansion had been done as a flat bracket (i.e. bottom 64 qualifiers in round 1, add 32 from Pro Tour in round two, add the seeds in round three) would have been much better and I'm still convinced it would be, but anyway, let's blast through the last twelve matches of round one.

Also, Dom Taylor, for fuck's sake.

Wattimena/Gruellich - Give some props to Dominik here, he did enough to keep things close against a clearly not on top form Jermaine, didn't work out in the end, as Wattimena just powered away in sets four and five, but a good sign for potential stage games going forwards.

Chisnall/Sherrock - Lots of missed doubles here. 3/23 is not a good look, but if you will only ever play in events where you are only likely to ever have to hit a double under pressure against one possible opponent, that's kind of on you for not pushing yourself. Play the fucking Challenge Tour, it's not difficult.

van Gerwen/Tatsunami - Was surprisingly tight. Don't think the qualifier did anything special, just took advantage of MvG pretty much not being on his game, getting what he could, but still not having enough to clean the game out. I guess Michael just puts this in the "just glad to be through round one" locker.

Ratajski/Toylo - A bit of a better game, but as I thought, Krzysztof is exactly the sort of player who will not be disrupted by a slower player, and he allowed pretty much nothing.

Doets/Dennant - Fairly solid showing from Matthew. Got the first, and was not far away from the remaining sets. Kevin was playing better, but with a bit better "timing" (god I hate that term) then maybe this match plays out differently. Certainly seemed closer than the scoreline and statistics suggested.

Meikle/Salate - No trouble here for Ryan. Jesus I guess was just a bit overwhelmed, it got a bit more interesting in the last set but the game was done by then.

Mansell/Gates - Now a lot of people here are giving this the Mansell/Long award. That might be a tad harsh, the first two sets weren't too bad, but then Mickey just turned off. Somehow got an eleven visit break and got things back to 2-2 on the back of that, but then the last set just reverted to type. This one more or less kept me at break even today, and for round one, thought this sort of game at the worlds was past Mansell but I guess not.

Rock/Hayter - Seems like Josh was just going through the motions here. Not really at full blast, Gemma played pretty decently let's not confuse matters, but I think if Rock wanted to 3-0 this one he could have done, but hey, a win is a win.

O'Connor/Kciuk - One of the performances of the tournament so far. It probably doesn't look quite as good in my database as it does in other media, mainly due to the only last dart kill Willie had being the 167 out, but it's good. Kciuk didn't play badly at all - he was just hugely outclassed on the night.

Gurney/Greaves - This was a real fun one to watch. On a lot of other days, Beau takes this, just a case of the occasional missed double at key times, and Daryl hitting the key checkouts at key times. It's an L for Greaves but a clear marker, as if any were needed, that she can mix it with the upper ends of the PDC ladder.

Aspinall/Ilagan - Fuck knows what was going on with this one. Seems like a perfect storm of Lourence looking maybe the best we've ever seen him on a PDC stage, and Nathan not being quite on his game. He got it done, but having piled on Aspinall at very short odds, this was a lot closer than it really needed to be.

Barry/Pusey - Alright from both. Keane coming back as he did in the first set I think might have taken the sting out of Tim a touch, if Pusey bags the first I think this one could have played out a lot differently, but while the Aussie didn't play bad at all, I think he was just consistently that half a visit or more behind, and it showed in the result, particularly after set one.

Into the sorting wheat from the chaff stage for real now. Lot of players will have nicked their way through one, but getting through the second is going to properly sort things out. I'll try and get daily thoughts updates out, as I'm at football tomorrow I'm not sure if I do it for the Saturday matches, or at least at decent timings, but we'll see.

Worlds day 7, afternoon day 8 reaction post

I was going to hold off until the first round was done, and then just do twenty matches at once, but there's actually quite a bit to talk about in these two sessions so I'll jump the gun and throw my thoughts out.

Campbell/Sevada - Not really sure what went on in this one. I don't know whether this was the pressure from Matt knowing he needed to win to have any chance of saving his tour card, but whatever, first set was a combination of having neither scoring nor checking out, levelled at 1-1, then Adam played probably his best stuff with some decent check outs, although the key thing was probably Matt missing two set darts. After that, the scoring just went and that was that. Disappointing, and if he's not able to reclaim his card then that's a HUGE set back for the entire North American region.

van Barneveld/Bellmont - Oh dear oh dear oh dear. I wasn't watching this game, but lost a fair chunk on it (I was also on Matt in the first game for full disclosure). Got first leg, couldn't score, missed a couple of doubles, loses set, misses more doubles to gift Bellmont the second, then another mediocre scoring leg to kick off the third seals the deal. I didn't watch the game, but by all accounts he had a severe case of cantbearseditis, and if you can't get yourself up for a world championship, what can you get yourself up for?

Wade/Azemoto - Pretty much a textbook Wade performance. Had the scoring advantage, finished steadily, didn't really give Azemoto a sniff. Nothing really to talk about here.

Schindler/Burton - And this one, coupled with the Campbell match earlier, pretty much seals the tour card situation for 2026. Seven of the eight players have now dropped who were right below the cutoff line, only Beveridge getting the win but he's going to need round 4 to change anything. Decent first leg from Stephen but then Martin took control, Burton upped his game a lot in the second to take things to 1-1, but couldn't win another leg after that, just being strongly outscored for the most part and missing what few chances he was given.

Rydz/Kovacs - Another one with not much to talk about. Patrik had the odd flash, actually keeping pace with Callan in terms of scoring for a lot of it, but couldn't really do it consistently enough to give Rydz too many problems, advancing in straight sets.

Tricole/Sakai - I'm not overly surprised by this one. Many of the Asian players have enough about them to be able to hang about with someone in this if they get a good draw, and no disrespect to Thibault, this is one of the best draws he could have got. He did need to rely on a pretty darned bad display of doubling from Tricole to get the first, but the second was very steady, while the third was again a display of mutually missed doubles, and you wonder if the fight had gone out of Thibault at that stage being two down.

Joyce/Bates - Another disappointing one for me, having taken the underdog who never really got out of the blocks. Bates just could never get any scoring going whatsoever, while Ryan was impeccable on the outer ring, which denied Owen a dart at a double in the first two sets, outside of the one leg he won. Bates did perk up in the third, did zero in the first leg but was allowed three clear at 40 and the same at 36 in the next two legs, but couldn't convert either chance which you simply have to do at this level. Would have been an enormous way back from there, but at 2-1 in legs the game would actually have been back on throw at that point. Oh well. Also a memo to both players - going bull with 66 left is really, really stupid. Stop doing that.

de Decker/Munyua - Jesus christ have Belgium had a bad worlds. Huybrechts, Vandenbogaerde, van den Bergh and Baetens already went out, and now de Decker falls as well to make it a very improbable clean sweep for the non-Belgians. Oddly, he started looking fine, Munyua got a nice twelve in the first set but Mike was otherwise not in trouble, but then he started out really not scoring in set 2, going down 2-0, pulling it back despite missing eight darts in the third which gifted David a chance for the set, the last two legs being very solid again. Then he was down 0-2 again with more poor play in both aspects of the game, dodging a lot more set darts, but letting Munyua take it, missing a bunch more doubles in the fourth, including three for the match, then the fifth was more weirdness - going seven perfect to start the set and break, but then miss a dart for 2-0 seeing David check 135 on the bull, missing more for the third leg, before not scoring as he went out.

I'll update the second round predictions post after the evening session. Might be late tonight, might be tomorrow at some point.