ET4 last sixteen

Well, that was a great day. Pretty much nothing went wrong. Hold up... no, my bad, I missed off the first and last bets which saw Heta and GvV cost me a packet. Oops. Still, the rest was pretty nice (shame Springer over MvG didn't project to say anything other than a minbet), so while we lost a touch for the day, the great day 1 keeps us in the black for the event. Last sixteen, here we go - and, unlike last time, there definitely will be no quarter final projections onwards, as I'm at football in person, and not just at the pub.

Noppert/Sedlacek - 62/73/66/67

Clayton/Huybrechts - 54/59/70/61

Ratajski/R Smith - 47/41/37/42

Springer/M Smith - 54/47/49/50

Rock/Zonneveld - 60/58/69/62

Doets/van Duijvenbode - 51/41/35/42

Aspinall/Schindler - 67/74/61/67

O'Connor/Gilding - 40/46/47/44

Looks like a really fun session! Shame I won't be about to watch it :(

ET4 round two

Well, Dolan more or less used the entirety of our get out of jail free cards for the year, but whatever, we had a small pickup and that is all that we need for now, let's just jump straight into round two:

Smith/Kovacs - insufficient data on Kovacs

Wattimena/Zonneveld - 50/49/52/50

Heta/Sedlacek - 78/71/68/72

Gurney/Gilding - 37/35/41/38

Searle/Ratajski - 52/59/62/58

Noppert/Edhouse - 49/64/69/61

de Decker/van Duijvenbode - 29/31/34/31

Chisnall/Smith - 46/41/46/44

Woodhouse/Huybrechts - 59/61/58/59

Rock/Joyce - 76/74/79/76

Wade/Doets - 36/41/51/43

Clayton/Hausotter - insufficient data on Hausotter

van Gerwen/Springer - 62/75/63/67

Aspinall/Pietreczko - 82/85/72/80

Schindler/Dolan - 57/48/60/55

van Veen/O'Connor - 84/79/71/78

Let's just say there's a few interesting projections out there.

ET4 round one

Ah, the time of the year where a Thursday feels like a Friday and then you go to the football, head back, and start looking at the first round Euro Tour games. Jesus. Anyway, the PDC have put the best game on first for whatever reason, here's what I'm seeing for all the games (as usual, short-medium-full-composite projection order):

O'Connor-Bialecki - 61/68/67/65

Joyce-Behrens - insufficient data on Behrens

Ratajski-Lovely - 82/76/72/77

Zonneveld-Lipscombe - 64/70/71/68

Menzies-Sedlacek - 50/65/58/58

Edhouse-Troppmann - insufficient data on Troppmann

Nijman-Gilding - 66/66/61/64

Cullen-Kovacs - insufficient data on Kovacs

Smith-Hurrell - 40/44/51/45

van Duijvenbode-Burton - 66/72/79/72

Dolan-Dekker - 74/74/66/71

Doets-Ostlund - insufficient data on Ostlund

van Barneveld-Hausotter - no data on Hausotter

Wright-Huybrechts - 20/32/44/32

Pietreczko-White - 43/49/58/50

Springer-Schmidt - no data on Schmidt

I am expecting an absolute shitshow, but maybe I get surprised a tad.

Luke wins shocker

No, not that one. New FRH rankings:

1 Luke Littler

2 Gian van Veen

3 Luke Humphries

4 Jonny Clayton (UP 1)

5 Gerwyn Price (UP 1)

6 James Wade (DOWN 2)

7 Gary Anderson

8 Josh Rock

9 Ryan Searle

10 Danny Noppert

11 Stephen Bunting

12 Michael van Gerwen

13 Chris Dobey (UP 1)

14 Nathan Aspinall (DOWN 1)

15 Wessel Nijman (UP 3)

16 Jermaine Wattimena (DOWN 1)

17 Ross Smith (DOWN 1)

18 Martin Schindler (DOWN 1)

19 Luke Woodhouse

20 Damon Heta

Not a huge amount doing. We've only had the two Euro Tours since the last update. Clayton and Price getting a final each bumps them over Wade, who missed one as well but lost first game in the one he did show in. Dobey did significantly better than Aspinall over the two and that's enough to bump him one place, while Nijman obviously won one to move him up to 15th, but there's a huge gap up from there, it's more than another ET bink to Aspinall right now. A bit lower down, Zonneveld getting to two semis sees him closing up on the top 32, bit of a way to go but there's a few players moving in the wrong direction ahead of him. Cristo Reyes is also up into the top 100 as he continues his impressive PDC return.

On the punting side, it was close to break even, down about 1%. Basically Andy Baetens covered everyone else fucking up. We've now got a bit of a break until a couple of Pro Tours this time next week and the day after, then the Easter Euro Tour. Until then, I'll have to try not to get into arguments on Reddit about people who can't even spell probability :-)

ET3 quarters

Actually had slight change of plans so I can blast out projections before the quarters. Baetens pulls through for us again to break even for the session, although it was a case of what could have been as while the two wins I had were 6-5's, the three losses were as well. Rushing onto the quarters, now with less Littler:

Zonneveld/Noppert - 53/48/48/50

Clayton/Baetens - 53/69/61 (still no short data on Baetens, nor would we get it if he gets deeper)

Humphries/Dobey - 71/61/62/65

van Gerwen/Joyce - 80/80/74/78

Mostly pretty flat. Interesting to see Humphries appears to be a bit better on form which is not necessarily what I would have expected, but it is what it is. Also cool to see Neil Duff pick up a title on home soil, very weird mix of known names (going out relatively deep) and newer names (who went deeper). Cool to see.

ET3 round three

Bit of a rough day. Heta, Aspinall and Rock letting me down for decent chunks threw a big spanner in the works, Baetens recovered a fair bit of it but regardless it shifts a solid day one pickup into a loss for the tournament. Not huge, only a couple of percent of bankroll, but annoying never the less. Let's jump into round three, and unlike last week where I said there'd probably be no quarter final suggestions, only to make them, there won't be for sure because Mickey Mouse cup final. Anyway, here we go:

Littler/Zonneveld - 79/80/78/79

Noppert/Searle - 43/44/46/44

Clayton/Smith - 39/50/51/47

Baetens/Schindler - 63/42/52 (still no short data on Baetens)

Humphries/Wattimena - 80/72/71/74

Huybrechts/Dobey - 36/30/28/31

van Gerwen/Gurney - 73/80/72/75

Reyes/Joyce - 68/59/54/60

Betfair haven't got all the markets up yet, but looking at conventional bookies there could be a bit of value here. I'll be up in the morning for the end of the basho so will check back then and hopefully print.

ET3 round two

That was alright. Lost very small pieces on Gawlas and Thorpe, which were more than offset by decent chunks on Baetens and van Duijvenbode. We'll take those wins. Let's look into round two. Most recent data sample first, last number is the composite.

Smith/Menzies - 77/58/66/67

Wattimena/Meikle - 60/59/69/63

Dobey/Chisnall - 76/77/68/74

Searle/Evans - 75/66/66/69

Schindler/O'Connor - 49/44/55/49

Heta/Gurney - 81/75/68/75

Noppert/Woodhouse - 51/58/57/55

Aspinall/Joyce - 80/78/69/76

Wade/Reyes - 56/57/60/58

Clayton/Bialecki - 69/77/78/75

Bunting/Baetens - 56/72/64 (not enough short data on Baetens)

de Decker/Zonneveld - 38/45/49/44

Littler/Krcmar - insufficient data on Krcmar

Humphries/van Duijvenbode - 74/64/60/66

van Gerwen/Mansell - 73/75/76/75

Rock/Huybrechts - 64/69/76/70

Could be some value there. We'll see.