Post Matchplay etc stuff

Always been more or less a couple of days behind everything, be it the back end of the Matchplay, the midweek Pro Tours, or the plethora of stuff that's happened this weekend, but we're up to date now. Big props to Littler, congrats to Wade for another fine tournament showing, then we've got new Pro Tour winners in Wattimena (we could see this coming) and Bialecki (maybe not just yet, but whatever), then this weekend a few players locked up their Ally Pally spots, which sold out pretty much instantly despite the increased pricing, increased session count and decreased overall quality of games. Fun times. That last comment I'll come onto in a separate post, but for now, we're due a new set of FRH rankings:

1 Luke Littler

2 Luke Humphries

3 Michael van Gerwen

4 James Wade (UP 3)

5 Jonny Clayton

6 Stephen Bunting (DOWN 2)

7 Josh Rock (UP 3)

8 Chris Dobey (DOWN 2)

9 Gerwyn Price (UP 2)

10 Damon Heta (DOWN 2)

11 Ross Smith (DOWN 2)

12 Gary Anderson

13 Danny Noppert (UP 1)

14 Mike de Decker (DOWN 1)

15 Martin Schindler

16 Gian van Veen (UP 2)

17 Dave Chisnall (DOWN 1)

18 Rob Cross (DOWN 1)

19 Nathan Aspinall

20 Jermaine Wattimena (NEW)

Searle's the player to drop out, although if Jermaine hadn't made the Pro Tour final he won, he would still be in the top 20. Zonneveld making a final moves him closer to the top 40, Bialecki's win puts him in the top 75, while Wenig making a final shifts him into the top 80. 

We've now got a little bit of a summer recess - I'll dive a bit more into what I said above about how the new worlds format is not good, but apart from a couple of Pro Tours, a Challenge Tour weekend and a chunk of silver rated WDF events, there's not much going on for the rest of the month, so expect sporadic updates, if any updates at all, prior to the Euro Tour at the end of the month.

As for a quick update on how the betting is going this season - it's fair to say being down a third from the starting bankroll is not where I'd want to be right now, but this is a lot more volatile than what I was doing previously. More than half the losses come from one man in one tournament and you know who he is. There's still some room before the end of the season to claw back towards parity, and I've had my first long shot each way worlds bet in BRadley Brooks, 250/1 boosted to 325/1 was too good to turn down for someone who did what he did at Q-School and has a Pro Tour win, semi and quarter in the last five events. It's going to need a bit of luck to get into a position where we can start to lay, right now he appears pretty much borderline as to whether he will be top 64, and that could come down to the PDPA qualifier and who comes out of that, but he's playing well enough and has enough of a peak game to be able to beat seeds in this in a short format, get out of round two and then we can probably look to just start betting his opponent to green out the position.

Well that was fortunate

Recalled I had bet on both van Veen and Bunting yesterday, and was fairly annoyed. Then completely overlooked I had gone moderately heavy on Rock, which got me out of the round at break even. So we are not in anywhere near as bad a position as I initially thought. Thank God.

So to the semis. Wade/Clayton. The numbers average at Jonny as having a 69% (nice) chance of winning the game. More pertinently, it is distributed in such a way that is not favourable towards Wade - the form sample is right on that line, and the 2025 sample is closer to 3-1 in favour of Jonny, with the twelve month data being the only thing that drags things back to that glorious 69%.

Now at this point I need to do some sanity checks. I've looked at the consistency stats - yes, Wade is better, but it is not obscenely better. I don't think it'll make that much of a difference. I'm not going to go with the sizing that the model is saying, sure, but I'm still going to put a confident bet on the Ferret.

Then we get onto Littler against Rock, which if things continue as they have been doing in this tournament, should close conversation for the match of the season debate. Both have been playing absurdly well, but in terms of whether there is value, this is hard. This is mainly due to Luke having more or less a three month holiday from ranked events. Full year stats say 70/30 Littler, and then 2025 stats say just a little bit below that, but still better than 2-1 Littler. Since April it says nearly 70/30 in favour of Rock. Betfair is currently trading at a tad shorter than 1.5 on Littler. I've already stated more than once that the form sample for Littler, based on sample size and that he may have been for all intents and purposes sandbagging, may not be any use at all. As such, I think this is a no go, even if we ignored the form sample it's not a Littler bet and it's not a good Rock bet, and the extent of what I am seeing is very much exaggerated in terms of Rock being able to take Luke to dicktown. I've been shoved a small free bet on the exchange, I'm putting it on Josh, but that's as far as I would go, this is just a sit back and enjoy game.

Matchplay quarters

Jesus, that was brutal. Absolutely brutal. After a very solid round 1 where we made substantial gains, everything and more was given back in round two with an 0-6 run, and even the two games I didn't bet I would likely have leant in terms of the value towards the player that ended up losing. The overall losses for the tournament are only minor, but still annoying given the position we were in, so I'm just going to put up the numbers in the same format as previous and not do too much commentary. I guess everyone's seen the games anyway and it's not like I actually watched anything live to add a great deal.

van Veen/Wade - 69/78/61 - 69

Bunting/Clayton - 56/52/64 - 57

Littler/Gilding - 89/88/64 - 80

Rock/Price - 56/55/67 - 59

Matchplay round 2

Numbers will be in full data/six months data/three months data/composite data format, the percentages being for the first listed player.

van Veen v Noppert - 54/62/50/55

Noppie won as expected again Menzies, although the margin of victory was somewhat larger than anticipated, while Gian was one where we thought he might run the favourite close and had chances, but he did convert them in what's the clear biggest story so far. He comes in as the favourite, and rightly so, but it seems as if, as has been the case for years, that Danny is undervalued and could represent small value at what we can get.

Nijman v Wade - 69/69/63/67

Nijman overcame any risk of TV hoodoo and got us our biggest bet of the first round in, while Wade played (at least on lol averages) the best he's ever done here, which given the number of matches he's played was quite something. These numbers indicate he should win around two thirds of the time, but he is nowhere near as short as the 1.5 that would indicate, so we will continue to punt on Wessel until the market adjusts and realises he is actually an elite player. Could be just them looking at Wade's first round as well, but whatever it is we'll take it while we can get it.

Bunting/Anderson - 37/43/51/44

Stephen looked pretty darned sluggish for some parts of his match with Joyce, although did recover well enough after that rough first eight or so legs, letting Joyce back into a game that looked won but eventually getting home. Ando didn't have too much trouble against Woodhouse, Luke winning the first two legs but not really doing much of anything after that. Ando projects as the better player, but is better on longer samples so probably doesn't offer any value either way if you're more of a bettor on form. I'll be trusting the composite number which makes it a Gary bet, but only a minbet.

Clayton/de Decker - 52/61/61/58

Clayton looked incredibly composed and solid against Schindler, who was not playing badly in the slightest and forced a real good game from the Ferret. de Decker wasn't great against Chizzy with one of the lower winning averages in round one, but with Dave playing how Dave has been playing in 2025 he didn't really need to do much more than what he did. The numbers indicate Mike might be slightly underrated, although that is based mainly on the long form, look at just 2025 and it's probably not value, and the first round games don't favour Mike either. I'll go with it, but again for more or less just the minimum.

Gilding/van Duijvenbode - 31/28/26/28

Andrew produced one of the better games he has done of late, averaging over a ton in a game with Heta that went to overtime, while Dirk needed a bit of a comeback and a bit of luck on finishing (from both players) to nick it against Cross by just the singular leg. Dirk's been playing well for some time, is trending completely in the right direction, and looks rather undervalued here.

Dobey/Price - 46/42/46/45

Chris pulled away from Pietreczko well in a game where the first half was very scrappy, and the second wasn't really that much better but Ricardo wasn't firing as much back as he did in the first half dozen or so legs. Gerwyn was in a, shall we say, feisty game with Gurney, where both players performed pretty solidly it has to be said but Price was able to manufacture an early lead and serve out enough legs to get over the line in a moderately close tie. Price, despite the seedings, should be favoured here, but not by much, the first round is a concern but Chris has been playing close enough for long enough to Gerwyn that I've got no problem with a moderate underdog play here.

Littler/Wattimena - 84/85/58/72

Littler was outstanding in a demolition job over Ryan Searle, we get the same sort of short sample size thing here as we did in that game, but I think any doubts as to whether Luke is in a bit of a rough spot have been set well and truly aside. Jermaine got through a scrap with Wright, neither playing awfully but seeing Wattimena start quickly enough and then survive a decent comeback effort, falling over the line from eight a piece. If we look at that bolded number in isolation then we should be betting Jermaine, but that looks clearly misleading given the first round, and something more like the longer stats look correct, which tell me to ignore the game, unlike in round one. Frankly there I believed Searle to have the possible A game to actually compete, I don't get the same vibes with Jermaine.

van Gerwen/Rock - 45/43/20/36

van Gerwen didn't do anything special against Barney, but at this stage of RvB's career, he didn't exactly have to, and just got the win. Rock on the other hand was sublime, it's either him or Littler for the pick of first round performances, Smith was down 5-0 early and although he offered more back after the first break to get some legs on the board himself, couldn't handle Josh's level of play. This is another one I think I can avoid. Like with Littler, MvG suffers from a small sample in the short data that isn't filled with great play, unlike Littler he didn't do much to correct it in round one, the raw overall number is a clear no bet, if we put him up nearer the two larger samples, then he might be small value, the true number is probably somewhere in between, which leaves Rock too short still but without the confidence of any edge to go with Michael here.

Correct score betting - a reprise

Mentioned this in the previous post, but thought I'd do it now. Let's say you're looking at tonight's games, you fancy a bit of a punt on the Littler game. You think he's going to win easily enough, but he's super odds on, so you don't see any value, so you pick a fairly one sided score out of a hat, let's say 10-4 Littler. Searle's not awful, should get some legs, but never really threaten. Can't disagree with any of that thought process, but there's a problem.

For your bet to win, precisely two things must happen. Now you may be thinking "well, yeah, Searle's got to win precisely four legs and Littler must win the match". True, but the two things I'm thinking of are the following:

a) The game must get to a score of precisely 9-4

b) Luke must win leg 14

How we get to 9-4, we really don't care - Searle can get off to a flier and Luke could then start steamrolling, we could get a bit of a reprise of Noppert/Menzies except with a few more legs for the loser, or anything in between. Doesn't matter. What does matter is the second point. Littler absolutely has to win the fourteenth leg.

The problem here is that darts works a lot like tennis. If you are on serve, you are much more likely to win the upcoming game than not. So it is the same in darts. We detailed in the previous post that even the worst player in the field should hold his throw more than half the time against the best player in the field. Now if Littler wins the bull, and opts to throw first (as he should), Searle is going to be on throw in the even numbered legs. Which includes the leg that Littler must win in order for your bet to win.

Of course, you could wait until we know who has won the bull, and if it is Littler then take a score that has Searle winning an odd number of legs. However, we don't know who does that (which, if you didn't know, you can see on sportradar) until fairly close before the off, and the bookie is going to flip to their prices of Littler having won the bull before you can place the bet. And they clearly do factor this in - looking at the live prices of Wright/Wattimena (at 5-1 Jermaine), the prices of 10-4 and 10-6 are shorter than all of 10-3, 10-5 and 10-7 - precisely because Jermaine has the darts in the even numbered legs.

So what should you do instead? Well, why not just go for the handicap bet - here, why not just take Littler -4.5 or -5.5? Or why not try to hit a middle? Take Littler -3.5 and Searle +6.5 at the same time, so 10-4, 10-5 and 10-6 will all pay off both sides. It won't pay off as much, but still gives you much the same sweat.

Tournament is going alright for me so far. Wade putting in his best ever performance, at least on averages, didn't help (and given how many games he's played here, that's some going), although I don't think he necessarily needed to with how Cullen was playing, but hitting on both Noppert and Nijman for lumps and then small pick ups on Gilding and DvD today keep things ticking over nicely. Searle pulling the upset this evening would be the icing on the cake, but that's pretty much a freeroll at this stage so long as Price and van Gerwen don't make mistakes on Monday night, when I'll probably be back to you with last sixteen thoughts.

Matchplay preview

Alright alright alright, let's get into this. I'll give you, for each player, a year long scoring number (and ranking, both overall and just within the field), 3m+, 6m+, year long and consolidated projections (largest data samples first, composite bolded), some blurb and then a projected final score (just based on 2025 data). DO NOT IN ANY WAY USE THAT FINAL SCORE PROJECTION AS A BETTING INDICATION - it is more to give you a rough idea of what the match winning percentage might look like in terms of size of win. I have gone over why I don't do correct score projections before and might reprise it in the quiet August month. But for now, the tournament.

(1) Luke Humphries - 95.61 (#3, #3) - 58, 58, 81, 66

Gian van Veen - 94.17 (#9, #9) - 42, 42, 19, 34

Humphries remains at the top of the game statistically, but has done most of his work in the big events with one major win, the Premier League, but nothing at European Tour level or below, much of which he's missed. van Veen did break through at Pro Tour level this year (beating Humphries in that final) and is starting to make moves on TV, so as such this is an inconvenient draw for both really. Humphries 12-10

(16) Danny Noppert - 93.04 (#15, #15) - 67, 69, 72, 69

Cameron Menzies - 90.99 (#28, #36) - 33, 31, 28, 31

Noppert maintains a top 15 position in pretty much everything, just about, but has had a moderately quiet 2025 so far in terms of results. Menzies has been doing work in comparison, with another Pro Tour win and a couple of other finals before getting that second bink, but is still to do a huge amount on TV and the numbers have fallen away a little bit it seems. Noppert 10-8

(8) Nathan Aspinall - 92.10 (#21, #24) - 30, 34, 28, 31

Wessel Nijman - 93.56 (#11, #11) - 70, 66, 72, 69

Aspinall has been looking real good on the European Tour with two binks, but the numbers remain unconvincing for his ranking, which in terms of the Werner is overstated given he's defending an absolute boatload here. Wessel has been consistently getting better numbers, but outside of getting fairly close on a couple of Euro Tours (including one semi where he lost 7-6 to Aspinall) he's not added to his debut win from '24 and is still to get anything of note done on TV. Nijman 10-8

(9) James Wade - 92.26 (#20, #23) - 62, 45, 59, 55

Joe Cullen - 91.24 (#23, #30) - 38, 55, 41, 45

Wade has had a bit of an up and down season, getting a Pro Tour bink and reaching the UK Open final, but his ranking probably outweighs the quality of his actual game at this point in time. Cullen on the other hand had an alright start on the floor with one final and one bink, but really needed those to get here and is probably drifting towards leaving the top 32 by the wrong end rather than back to where he thinks he belongs. Cullen 13-12

(4) Stephen Bunting - 94.36 (#6, #6) - 69, 74, 84, 76

Ryan Joyce - 91.02 (#27, #35) - 31, 26, 16, 24

Bunting got the Euro Tour break through finally this year, has been looking extremely good on the World Series, and is firmly established in that bracket of elite but just off the best couple in the world. Joyce is consolidating a top 32 position and has a Euro Tour final to his credit this year, but the numbers trail Bunting a fair bit, especially in the form based stats, so this could be a tough one. Bunting 10-7

(13) Gary Anderson - 95.71 (#2, #2) - 82, 75, 80, 79

Luke Woodhouse - 90.37 (#31, #40) - 18, 25, 20, 21

Ando in terms of just raw scoring is among the very elite in the game, has a Pro Tour and Euro Tour title this season and could have added a second last weekend, and is going to be hard to beat in this. Luke remains in and around the edges of the top 32, does have a couple of semi finals this year but is still waiting to break his PDC duck. Anderson 10-7

(5) Jonny Clayton - 92.76 (#17, #17) - 65, 64, 63, 64

Martin Schindler - 91.13 (#26, #34) - 35, 36, 37, 36

Jonny is doing a great job of remaining relevant in 2025, maybe slightly overvalued but not by that much and has good wins at Pro Tour and Euro Tour levels this season. Schindler has done the same though and outside of Rock is one of the players that seeds would want to be avoiding, even if on raw numbers this might not be as accurate a read as it appears to be. Clayton 11-9

(12) Dave Chisnall - 91.14 (#25, #33) - 42, 39, 50, 44

Mike de Decker - 92.61 (#19,. #20) - 58, 61, 50, 56

Chizzy is still in the top 16, but appears way down in 2025 with scoring dropping and just a singular final this year. de Decker's finally been given a World Series call up and is outscoring Chizzy generally speaking, but also just has the one final (although this was at Euro Tour level). de Decker 10-8

(2) Luke Littler - 96.81 (#1, #1) - 75, 74, 45, 65

Ryan Searle - 93.45 (#12, #12) - 25, 26, 55, 35

Littler's clearly the best players in the world, but looking at that form sample (where he's barely played in ranked events for full transparency) his last few months have been a bit below his best, and it is not as if he's been ripping up the unranked events then either. Searle has one Pro Tour win early in the season but it feels like it's been a quiet 2025 so far, but the numbers remain pretty darned good. Sure, Luke may just be able to turn the quality on like a tap, but if he can't then who knows. Littler 10-7

(15) Peter Wright - 91.54 (#22, #29) - 51, 46, 42, 46

Jermaine Wattimena - 92.73 (#18, #18) - 49, 54, 58, 54

Wright may well be falling out of the top 16 for the final time in the near future, the numbers just aren't there anymore and the results seem to be coming less and less frequently of late. Jermaine still needs a title, got another floor final this year and seems to be trending in the opposite direction, with likely enough to get across the line here. Wattimena 13-12

(7) Damon Heta - 93.13 (#14, #14) - 60, 53, 58, 57

Andrew Gilding -91.17 (#24, #31) - 40, 47, 42, 43

Heta has got another couple of Pro Tour wins, another Euro Tour final, but is probably at the highest ranking he's ever going to get to without a huge TV run, and the levels are probably not quite enough to seriously threaten to do that. Gilding holds on in the top 32 and is showing enough that it's a fair position, and while he did get to a Euro Tour final this season he didn't threaten to win it in the slightest. Heta 13-12

(10) Rob Cross - 92.94 (#16, #16) - 44, 45, 36, 42

Dirk van Duijvenbode - 93.94 (#10, #10) - 56, 55, 64, 58

Rob got the first Pro Tour win of the season, but after that it's been a bit quiet and he really doesn't seem like a top 10 player at present. Dirk feels like the player that would be more around that level, although he's not been able to add to his title tally so far this season. van Duijvenbode 13-11

(3) Michael van Gerwen - 94.71 (#5, #5) - 80, 82, 66, 76

Raymond van Barneveld - 90.59 (#30, #38) - 20, 18, 34, 24

van Gerwen, like Littler, hasn't played a huge amount in the last few months and that allows for Barney to keep the form based sample fairly close, did get a Euro Tour win, and still remains one of the world's best. Barney is holding on in the top 32 but I really don't think he's a top 32 level player and this is very close to the most one sided first round ties we have. van Gerwen 10-6

(14) Ross Smith - 93.45 (#13, #13) - 41, 41, 32, 38

Josh Rock - 95.11 (#4, #4) - 59, 59, 68, 62

Ross has the most convincing Pro Tour win this season by far, but outside of that, he's not doing anything to convince that he can really push on to hit the top 10, with a few players below him in the rankings outscoring him so he may go backwards before he goes forward. Rock is one of these, back to the sorts of levels he was at peak hype, he now has a TV title as well (albeit in pairs) and he could well be in contention to claim a major title in singles, he is that good. Rock 10-8

(6) Chris Dobey - 94.22 (#8, #8) - 77, 81, 76, 78

Ricardo Pietreczko - 89.44 (#32, #60) - 23, 19, 24, 22

Dobey's another one who could be getting to the stage where he is a legitimate contender, and this is a very scary quarter of the draw, adding to his title tally with another two Pro Tours this season, he's been known to be an elite talent and one that could just bypass the Euro Tour level of title without anyone batting an eyelid. Ricardo is kind of holding on at this level, has by far the worst numbers of anyone in the field with nobody else being below 90, and it's a second bad draw in a row, and this might not be pretty. Dobey 10-6

(11) Gerwyn Price - 94.27 (#7, #7) - 74, 82, 79, 78

Daryl Gurney - 90.98 (#29, #37) - 26, 18, 21, 22

Price is bang in form having won the last Euro Tour, finalled the last Pro Tour and is showing top ten level darts, above 94 being the sort of level where someone becomes a legitimate contender to win a title. Gurney got the TV win he's been after so will be confident, this however is an awkward draw and it's hard to give him a realistic chance given his numbers being well below Price's so this could be tough for Daryl. Price 10-6

Future rounds:

Humphries 11-9 Noppert

Nijman 12-10 Cullen

Bunting 12-14 Anderson

Clayton 12-10 de Decker

Littler 11-7 Wattimena

Heta 9-11 van Duijvenbode

van Gerwen 13-14 Rock

Dobey 12-14 Price

Humphries 16-13 Nijman

Anderson 16-14 Clayton

Littler 16-14 van Duijvenbode

Rock 16-14 Price

Humphries 19-17 Anderson

Littler 17-15 Rock

Humphries 15-18 Littler

Now one thing you might note is that I've not put a single wildly one sided scoreline on here. This is simply due to how good players are these days - it makes it very, very hard for anyone to break. If I look at a first round match between the best player (Littler) and the worst player (Pietreczko), you're going to have a minimum of ten legs, five on throw for each player. Now here, Littler projects to hold on throw slightly over 80% of the time - so one time in five, you'd expect Ricardo to break. Pietreczko on throw, although Luke is clearly better, still rates to hold his throw 52% of the time - more than half the time. So of those ten legs, if we say that Littler does a bit better than expectation and breaks Pietreczko three times, but Ricardo gets one break back, that is still only 7-3. That's enough to give Ricardo a guaranteed leg with the darts, if we give Luke the bull to throw first, say that Pietreczko doesn't break either the next two but does hold (not unreasonable, given he should hold more than half the time and we did give Littler the odd leg of the first five, so we'll make it 3-3 on the Pietreczko throw to that point), we get it up to 9-4 with Ricardo throwing to make it 9-5. So if I've not put any wins more one sided than 10-6, and have a lot of games being decided by just the one break or by overtime, that's just a factor of these things. Players are fucking good and it makes it hard to break. That's it. If we made something even more one sided and said someone would hold 85% of the time and break 55% of the time, that's only a 2.2% chance of a 10-0. Game is fierce these days.

Kiel aftermath

Well that early start caught me out, although even if it was the normal 12pm UK start I wasn't making it in time for any betting. Chisnall losing did the damage, often get the case where the market's saying 45% or there abouts and we've got it the other way around, that sort of thing loses often enough and that just so happened today to cause an overall loss in the event. We'll look to rebuild in Blackpool, expect a run through of the event, as for now, the latest FRH rankings:

1 Luke Littler

2 Luke Humphries

3 Michael van Gerwen

4 Stephen Bunting

5 Jonny Clayton

6 Chris Dobey

7 James Wade

8 Damon Heta (UP 1)

9 Ross Smith (DOWN 1)

10 Josh Rock

11 Gerwyn Price (UP 6)

12 Gary Anderson (DOWN 1)

13 Mike de Decker (DOWN 1)

14 Danny Noppert (DOWN 1)

15 Martin Schindler (DOWN 1)

16 Dave Chisnall (DOWN 1)

17 Rob Cross (DOWN 1)

18 Gian van Veen (NEW)

19 Nathan Aspinall (DOWN 1)

20 Ryan Searle (DOWN 1)

Wright slips out of the top 20 to let van Veen in, otherwise the only real moves are on account of Price binking yesterday, and Heta getting a Pro Tour in midweek. These include Matchplay mincashes, the first player out is not Smith or van den Bergh, but the oft forgotten Ritchie Edhouse. The top 35 is now the Matchplay field minus those three, without that mincashing Lukeman and Ratajski might be a tad higher, but they're not. Niko's now into the top 70, and the top 50 is probably a matter of when rather than if, with him now looking very good to be the only player to actually earn a European Championship spot, rather than being gifted it.

I'll run through Blackpool midweek. There's some very nice first round matchups, but we'll just go through in bracket order and see if anyone can realistically stop Littler.