Alrighty, going down in order of which player appears on the previous post first, will throw down some basic thoughts.
R1 - Pascal Rupprecht v Jenson Walker
R2 - Rupprecht/Walker v Cam Crabtree
R3 - Rupprecht/Walker/Crabtree v Joe Cullen
This one seems pretty straight forward, outside of the first round. Walker's been doing OK on the Development Tour to get here and has obviously looked good in the WDF, Pascal appeared a few years ago but then faded away for a bit before surprisingly getting a tour card this January, nice to see a return. Numbers are close but Jenson probably has a minor edge. Crabtree's done a lot more than either on the PDC circuit (whichever one you want) actually rating in the top 50 himself, so that looks a tad one sided, but Joe in the last twelve has been playing better than anyone without a bye to round four, so while Cam's not completely dead, Cullen should be fine, albeit would not necessarily like this draw.
R1 - Oliver King v Ryan Branley, Filip Bereza v Rhys Griffin
R2 - King/Branley v Bradley Brooks, Bereza/Griffin v Oskar Lukasiak
R3 - King/Branley/Brooks v Bereza/Griffin/Lukasiak
This one would have been pretty trivial six months ago, now I'm not so sure. First round is a bit of a mess. I know nothing about King, I assumed given where he won he might have been a relation to Mervyn but I guess that the PDC report would have said so if so, numbers in the quali were pretty steady 80's and he has apparently previously played the Dev Tour, but nothing in my database since 2023. Branley appears to have been steadily improving and looks like he has the better numbers. Bereza was a real random Q-School qualifier and hasn't looked fantastic statistically, so against Griffin, who's been around the PDC pro scene a lot longer, he might be a bit outclassed. Griffin against Lukasiak might be a bit closer, Oskar's been a bit disappointing since getting his card and isn't putting up as good numbers, so there's an opportunity for Rhys. Then we come to Brooks, who had an amazing 2025, but has seemingly fallen off a cliff formwise in the last few months. I think he'll still have more than enough to get through this section but it's not the formality it would have been six months ago.
R2 - Tytus Kanik v Jim Long
R3 - Kanik/Long v Callan Rydz
This one might be one of the easier ones to sort. Kanik has more or less been a disaster on the tour, and has one of the lowest stats of anyone, Long is not particularly great but has had a lot more moments and should be comfortable, but neither are anywhere near the calibre of Rydz, who seems like he might be getting back close to his best, which is a pretty dangerous level of player.
R1 - Kai Gotthardt v Daniel Lee, Marvin Kraft v Matthias Ehlers
R2 - Gotthardt/Lee v Kraft/Ehlers
R3 - Gotthardt/Lee/Kraft/Ehlers v Niko Springer
Daniel Lee won the Coventry Rileys qualifier (venue I know very well), was here before three years ago but didn't do much, mostly averaged low 80's in the quali but did beat a couple of recognisable names and occasionally flash a bit higher. That shouldn't be enough to beat Gotthardt, who's been really disappointing since getting his card and the form numbers aren't great either, but Kai should be fine. Then we've got Kraft and Ehlers - an all German clash of new card holders, neither's really done much so far in their career which I guess is to be expected to some degree, but while over a short sample Matthias looks to be playing the better and that's really all I have to go with. If he can extend that then with the way Kai is playing he's absolutely got to be in with a shot, but in any case, even though Niko probably isn't quite on his top game, he should have a pretty simple task of getting through to round four. Gotthardt from 18 months ago might have asked the question, but it's not 18 months ago.
R3 - Willie O'Connor v Ryan Meikle
This one is kind of interesting. Willie's had a good spell results wise and is certainly in the middle of a Matchplay run, but the numbers are sliding a bit in the wrong direction. Ryan's always been a bit hit and miss, but his peak game is arguably a bit better than O'Connor can do, and the form numbers are trending the complete other way, indeed in the shortest sample Ryan's scoring above 90 and Willie isn't. It's not enough, and I think you still have to favour the Magpie, but this might be deceptively close.
R1 - Jamai van den Herik v Graham Hall
R2 - van den Herik/Hall v Dominik Gruellich
R3 - van den Herik/Hall/Gruellich v Justin Hood
Interesting first round game. van den Herik made great progression in 2025, but was unfortunate to not win a tour card by multiple methods, whereas Hall has had a card, and was steady on the Challenge Tour etc last year, and the numbers are really close. I'm guessing that Hall might have been in some more higher profile games than Jamai has and that might give him the edge in one that should be tight. Gruellich is up next, who had a good 2025 to make the worlds, but his numbers are not too dissimilar to either opponent he might face and he's not been quite as good of late as he has been in slightly longer samples, so there's another close game and a decent opportunity for someone to make a run until round one. Until they meet Hood, who maybe could have done a bit more in terms of results in 2026 but had a fantastic 2025 and worlds and is well ahead of any of the three opponents he could face, and being fresher not having come through one or two tough games should be beneficial.
R2 - Jimmy van Schie v Tom Bissell
R3 - van Schie/Bissell v Niels Zonneveld
Fascinating section. van Schie is a big name who has done enough in the PDC already to get a first round bye, but Bissell, who was a fairly random card winner at the start of 2025, is not actually that far behind in the numbers and seems to be steadily getting better and more comfortable on the circuit, probably to the point where if he does drop at the end of the year (which he probably will), I'd probably tip him to get one straight back. I'd still favour Jimmy, but this one might be closer than a lot of pundits might think. Then we've got Zonneveld, who is very much in the middle of a Matchplay run and looking as good as he ever had as he tries to close in on the top 32. Niels is probably the best of the bunch just based on the feels, and the numbers back it up to a decent degree, but wouldn't be a guarantee to make the evening session.
R2 - Beau Greaves v Darryl Pilgrim, Robert Owen v Stefaan Henderyck
R3 - Greaves/Pilgrim v Owen/Henderyck
Decent section with four players who all get a one round bye. Pilgrim was one of the best players in the world without a tour card before he won one, but has been a tad disappointing so far, whereas Greaves has looked very good in the short time that she's had one and is producing great performances statistically and continues to dominate the Women's Series. On the other side, Owen has been on the borderline for saving a card for some time now and could do with a decent season to keep hold of it. A draw against Henderyck is not the worst thing he could get, Stefaan was one of a few fairly random players to claim his card just over twelve months ago and I can't remember much of anything he's done, he's not the worst holder but he's not even mid tier to be fair. I've got this more or less as Greaves>Owen>Pilgrim>Henderyck in terms of how it ranks, Darryl if he shows up could ask some questions for sure but that really hasn't happened that often, so I think both the first named players get through round two and Beau makes the last 64.
R3 - Kevin Doets v Ricardo Pietreczko
Pretty simple one, and it's between two players who want to get into the top 32 - Pietreczko wants to get back there after his Euro Tour dropped off and could do with a good result here if only to boost confidence, being nowhere near the Matchplay right now, whereas Doets is right on the edge in that respect and looking to get there for the first time, which would definitely assist with that push given that it'd be a debut. Kevin has enough of an advantage in terms of the numbers that he should be a fairly clear favourite here, but Ricardo has some upside in his game so can't be ruled out of contention by any means.
R1 - Owen Bates v Yorick Hofkens, Niall Culleton v Lewis Pearse
R2 - Bates/Hofkens v Wesley Plaisier, Culleton/Pearse v Viktor Tingstrom
R3 - Bates/Hofkens/Plaisier v Culleton/Pearse/Tingstrom
This section is a fair bit of a mess. Bates/Hofkens is a fairly easy one to call, Bates has a chunk more experience and is producing solidly higher numbers than Hofkens' has in the short amount of time we've seen him. Culleton/Pearse is interesting, Niall wasn't a complete unknown when he got his card but a little bit of a surprise name, whereas Lewis is a complete unknown, at least to me, winning through the Harlow quali with the odd flash but generally unconvincing averages, making me think Niall will be fine. Viktor's another Swede who's disappointed since getting his card but should have enough to beat Culleton, while Plaisier is the clear pick of the bunch, although likely getting the second best player in the section in round two in Bates - Owen is not that far off statistically, but Wesley should have the edge. Then it is simple in round three, whoever wins the Plaisier game should have a very strong chance of getting into the hat.
R1 - Jeffrey Sparidaans v Scott Waites, Nathan Potter v Chris Landman
R2 - Sparidaans/Waites v Potter/Landman
R3 - Sparidaans/Waites/Potter/Landman v Connor Scutt
Lot of well established names here. Sparidaans and Waites have arguably done more in the BDO/WDF systems than in the PDC, but aren't complete unknowns there (heck Waites has a major), although while it seems as if Scott's done less of late than Jeffrey has, he's performing a lot better and Waites is the favourite for me. Landman has been on and off the PDC circuit and hasn't done too bad, and he comes up against Potter, who's in through the Dev Tour and isn't scoring too badly in the slightest, Chris is better but he's not that much better. Should go through but a lot of these younger players really don't take account of reputation so who knows. I would think whoever wins the first game comes through the second round, although that's on the basis that I think Scott will be just fine. In round three, Scutt has been up and down over the last year or so, but looks to be getting things together in more recent times, and while Waites certainly has enough to push him, Scutt certainly has enough to shut him out. Depends who show up to some degree but it's Connor for me.
R1 - Cristo Reyes v Graham Usher, Sietse Lap v Ted Evetts, Tom Sykes v Sean Ryan, James Beeton v Arno Merk
R2 - Reyes/Usher v Lap/Evetts, Sykes/Ryan v Beeton/Merk
R3 - Reyes/Usher/Lap/Evetts v Sykes/Ryan/Beeton/Merk
Often when you've got a section where there's eight players entering at round one it can be a complete clusterfuck, but this one doesn't seem particularly bad. Reyes has looked extremely good since his PDC return in December, while Usher's a solid veteran who's come through the PDC qualifiers but we've not seen that much from him in the last year, so Cristo should be fine. Ted had a real good Challenge Tour season last time and isn't playing bad at all, while Lap gained his tour card after showing up occasionally in 2025, and what we have seen isn't too bad. With Evetts not being as good of late as he was around this time last year, maybe Sietse has a small edge. Sykes is another fairly new name who jumped on the tour this year and the start has been steady if not spectacular, while Ryan won the Aberdeen qualifier, looking decent in the final but before that it was more either a case of just doing enough or not really being on Tom's level. Finally, Merk came back and looked real nice at the worlds and has started steadily in 2026 after getting a card, while Beeton's been on the DT and other youth/WDF circuits for quite some time now, but on the stats he doesn't look too close to Arno. Reyes should be able to handle either opponent in round two, while Sykes has a small but significant enough edge to think he'd be comfortable against either opponent. Cristo is the best player out of this area, and it's hard to see how he doesn't make decent inroads into the tournament.
R1 - Charlie Manby v Stefan Bellmont, Tyler Thorpe v Pero Ljubic
R2 - Manby/Bellmont v Thorpe/Ljubic
R3 - Manby/Bellmont/Thorpe/Ljubic v James Hurrell
We start with a couple of players with decent worlds, Manby is a lot more spectacular but Stefan has come on a ton in the last six months - the stats over the last year are well in Charlie's favour but since December they're actually very close. Still got to fancy Manby, but the game is live. Thorpe was doing alright on the Dev Tour before winning his card where he's had a bit of a slow start to his senior PDC career, but he's very much better than Ljubic, who while isn't as bad as MvG's assessment of him, is certainly in the conversation for the worst card holder as of right now, so Tyler should be fine. If Bellmont does pull the win out, his game with Thorpe would be extremely tight, as the players don't seem overly different in quality takingform into account, but if Manby does get through then it should be a similar game for him in the first two rounds. Hurrell is looking more and more comfortable on the PDC circuit and is solidly in the top 64, a game with Manby should be competitive with James likely having a little bit of an edge, but an edge none the less, while against anyone else he ought to be relatively safe.
R3 - Karel Sedlacek v Raymond van Barneveld
Easy one to pick the favourite in. Karel's better over the last twelve months by near a point and a half a turn, which isn't insignificant, and as we get more and more form based Barney runs into a greater and greater disadvantage. to the point where you have to think he's just mailing it in completely at this stage. Karel's on a Matchplay run, and although this won't help the Pro Tour rankings, it will certainly help with a push up towards the top 32, although he's a bit further away from most for that. Ought to be an easy one for the Czech.
R3 - Mensur Suljovic v Lukas Wenig
Two of the top three rated players remaining that we've not mentioned yet. Mensur has had a real resurgence over the last year, maybe a touch more, and while still not anywhere near where his best was, he is clearly top 64 quality, as is Wenig, who had some decent breakthroughs in the last year and projects extremely closely. This one looks genuinely too close to call. So I won't call it.
R2 - Adam Gawlas v Tavis Dudeney
R3 - Gawlas/Dudeney v Madars Razma
Two young players who have seemed to be around for some time now. Adam looks to have solved some of the huge consistency issues that he has had previously (he's young, they're understandable), and got back on tour and is playing pretty good since getting his card back. I thought at the time it might have been a bit too soon for Tavis to get on the tour after he did, and 2025 (excluding being a surprising winner of the PDPA worlds qualifier) was more or less a total loss, and in terms of numbers is way, way behind Gawlas. Razma is doing so-so but is some way off the Matchplay places which does surprise me, he's a better player than Gawlas, but with the momentum that Adam has, coupled with him clearly liking the venue, then maybe there's enough in it to make this a sneaky close third round tie.
R3 - Ricky Evans v Brendan Dolan
Another quick straight into round three game. Dolan's been out of the top 32 for a while now and it looks like he's probably not getting back at this stage in his career, his numbers are just about top 64 level but that's about it. Evans had a good worlds but realistically is far enough off the top 32 to be able to get back there soon, with 2027 being more realistic if he can get things doing results wise on the Pro Tour, which he's not done for a bit. I'll take Evans, the numbers are better and the trend feels like it's better (if the form numbers say otherwise), but this one is closer to a coin flip than it first appeared.
R2 - Sebastian Bialecki v Christian Kist
R3 - Bialecki/Kist v Gabriel Clemens
Nice little European section here. Bialecki has started pretty well, and with him having a good start to Euro Tour qualifiers and a Pro Tour win in the bank, he's actually on a Matchplay run from kind of nowhere, which'd be amazing to see. That said, Kist looks like he's getting back to his best - we've seen it before, then injuries have taken over again and he's dropped back, but while playing alright (actually statistically better than Sebastian), he's extremely dangerous. Clemens has had a start to 2026 which is a bit better than previous years, but the advantage he has over either of these players is not huge. It's an edge for sure, and with a bit of confidence, he might have enough to get over the line, although he's still not close to the player he was where he was making majors at will and pretty much unanimous number one to be a next new Pro Tour winner. Which is still outstanding.
R3 - Kim Huybrechts v Keane Barry
One of the last couple of straight into round three vs straight into round three matches, and it's between two players who are some way off the pace. Both are in tour card race trouble and could really do with a decent run here to get the right side of the 64/65 line. Neither player is looking bad of late - Kim's up above 90 since December (despite missing the worlds), while Keane isn't too far off that marker. The Belgian has overall better statistics, but can only come in as a moderate favourite as there isn't that much between the pair of them in all honesty.
R1 - Benjamin Pratnemer v Callum Goffin, Jeffrey de Zwaan v Samuel Whittaker
R2 - Pratnemer/Goffin v de Zwaan/Whittaker
R3 - Pratnemer/Goffin/de Zwaan/Whittaker v Scott Williams
One of these sections where we've got four round one players feeding into one round three player. Pratnemer is a name that's been around for a while, getting into the PDC worlds at least once and doing solidly on the WDF circuit before finally getting on tour this January, and he's looking fairly average so far, I might have expected a touch more but will give credit as it takes time to adapt to the new system. Goffin was an odd name to win a card 3-4 years ago at this stage and basically did nothing with it, he's here through the Riley's quali just up the road from me in Chorlton. There he looked better than he's ever done - only beating the one minor name I recognise but getting three straight 90+ averages (some comfortably) from the last sixteen. Do that and he's got chances. de Zwaan we know plenty about, getting his card back again in January, still a huge way off his best but probably doing enough to beat Whittaker, who I don't recognise but who was averaging round about 85 in a qualifier in Enderby, notably beating Mark McGeeney there, so looks to have at least something about him. Who comes through is tough to say - I'd favour the card holders and then de Zwaan, but feels very much like a case of who turns up. Williams it feels like has been fairly anonymous more or less since his worlds semi, but is a known solid and consistent player and should be favoured against whoever, but someone like de Zwaan clearly has the upside to be able to handle him, so I think whoever he plays is going to give him a tough match.
R2 - Shane McGuirk v Thomas Lovely
R3 - McGuirk/Lovely v Martin Lukeman
Very good chance for Shane to follow up on a good Masters and really solidify a great start to his PDC career. The former Lakeside champion comes up against Lovely, who had an alright 2025 but never really threatened the worlds, think I've seen his name a bit more mainly through the Euro Tour where he's already played in one and made another, but the numbers this season are slightly lower than they were last, could just be sample size but just a bit of extra reason to go with the form guy in Shane. Who frankly should beat Lukeman as well - very likable player, but not only has he not pushed on from his Grand Slam final, his form has absolutely plummeted and his year long numbers are basically the same as Lovely's, and over shorter samples they're even worse, so definitely a very good shot for someone from down the rankings to make something happen.
R1 - Jack Tweddell v Jurjen van der Velde
R2 - Tweddell/van der Velde v Leon Weber
R3 - Tweddell/van der Velde/Weber v Mario Vandenbogaerde
Good first round match this. Tweddell was more or less unknown to me a year ago, but did well in the second half of the Challenge Tour last year, winning one and getting deep a few other times, and he already has a bink this year as well. Jurjen deservedly got back on the tour this year after a 2025 where he showed great resilience when his game could easily have gone to pieces, and his numbers are a touch better than Jack's, so maybe with the stage experience he has, that might be the edge, but Tweddell must have a ton of confidence right now. That said, JvdV has binked two Dev Tours this year, so who knows? Weber's a relatively young player who finished top ten in the Dev Tour last year, is in the second year of a card which is going back in January barring something special, his numbers are lower than both the first round opponents, it's not by a huge amount but it is lower, so will have his work cut out to progress. Mario is the pick of the bunch and with the background he had winning large opens in the WDF days prior to moving here (and having his card reprieved to stay here) makes me think this event should suit him well. That said, his form numbers indicate a bit of a sluggish start to this year, so he may need to up his recent game a touch to get this one done.
R1 - Sam Spivey v Kyle Gilding, Alexander Merkx v Jannis Barkhausen
R2 - Spivey/Gilding v Max Hopp, Merkx/Barkhausen v Marvin van Velzen
R3 - Spivey/Gilding/Hopp v Merkx/Barkhausen/van Velzen
Oh my god this is nearly an absolute shitshow, but I think there's just about enough here to go with. Spivey is here through the Challenge Tour (finishing a mere 25 quid over possible later opponent Merkx, but in the top ten). He binked the last one of the year (over Merkx, oddly enough again), and we've seen him on the Pro Tour a few times, still maybe a bit of a work in progress. Gilding (assume no relation to Goldfinger) is definitely a work in progress - he's literally just turned 16. He came through the Syston qualifier - I recognise basically none of the names there, and the numbers are typical low-middling 80's sorts, so I'm thinking he'll be a dog here but hey, let's enjoy the ride, they've put that one on the main stage so it'll be an experience. Merkx has been known for some time in the WDF but binked his card in January, whereas Barkhausen is here through the Dev Tour, Germany has a trillion young players but this is one that I seemingly know the least about. He did win one last year over Owen Bates, but I think Alex has the game and experience to close this one out. Max Hopp has looked pretty strong after effectively returning from the wilderness back at the start of 2025, he's a known quantity with Euro Tour winning upside, and with the way he's been playing I really can't see either Spivey or Gilding getting overly close. van Velzen won his card at the start of 2025 like Hopp, even more by the skin of his teeth (Marvin was the last man in, Max third last), and while he's got the results to at least get a bye into round two, the numbers are not pretty, scoring under 85 per turn is nowhere near good enough at this level. So I'm guessing we get a Hopp v Merkx final, and I can't look past Hopp (against Merkx, or whoever). He's just playing that much better than everyone else here.
R3 - Alan Soutar v Richard Veenstra
Two very established names who we should know all about. Soutar has been on the fringes or just inside the top 32 before but is a bit further back now, Richard had a great WDF career and a very good first year in the PDC, but year two was a bit disappointing, now both players sit in the fifties in the world rankings, Veenstra probably going to have to do some work to save his card. There isn't an enormous amount between the two players statistically, but Soutar looks just a touch better, and on the form stats it becomes a bit wider. Go look at the averages for the Players Championship so far on Dart Connect. Soutar's position might surprise you. Have to go for the Scot here.
R1 - Darius Labanauskas v Callum Francis
R2 - Labanauskas/Francis v Maximilian Czerwinski
R3 - Labanauskas/Francis/Czerwinski v Peter Wright
Yes, this is how far the article you need to read to encounter Snakebite, that's just how bad he is playing. First up, Darius is back on tour from the Challenge Tour, so a good rebuilding effort in 2025 with three binks there as well as one on the SDC tour. Still some way off where he was when he was at his world quarter final peak, but it looks like he is moving in the right direction at least. Francis won one of the PDC qualis in Hampshire, getting out of a tough final stage where the other semi finalists were Arron Monk (assuming the DC spelling is a typo and it is the same guy), Chas Barstow and Mike Gillet. He does have some Challenge Tour experience and is not an unfamiliar name, but Darius ought to be fine here. Max came through Q-School in 2025 after a good domestic 2024 season, but it's not really happened for him at this level yet, the scoring looks to be in the bottom decile of card holders and I can't recall any notable results, I don't think he has an advantage over either player he might face to be honest. Then we have Wright. Over the last twelve months, his numbers are the best, which is why this paragraph is here. However, the 6+ month stat is down 3.5 points from there, and the 3+ month stat down another two. If he had a more favourable draw then maybe he could draw on experience and grind a win out, but against (likely) Labanauskas, he's got someone with a bunch of experience as well to counter that. Hate to say he's done, but it looks like he's done. Cue keyboard warriors pin this on dressing room sort of reaction.
R1 - Ron Meulenkamp v Samuel Price
R2 - Meulenkamp/Price v Adam Warner
R3 - Meulenkamp/Price/Warner v Jeffrey de Graaf
OK, this is a bit of a weird section. Meulenkamp is the more well known name, having got high enough in the rankings to get in the Grand Prix once (albeit eight years ago now), while Price is, er, I don't know. Obviously Samuel's the tour card holder (winning it direct on the last day) and Ron is the Riley's qualifier. Don't know much about either's form - Price has started sluggishly, but we'll allow that, while Ron was mostly mid-high 80's with the odd flash in the qualifier, did beat the odd name (David Davies probably the pick), so I'm thinking there is probably enough there to get by. Warner was an unfavoured name to win his card back last year, but he did, probably going to need to do it again, numbers aren't awful and they look a tad better of late, I wonder if this is one where while I think Ron is the better player, Adam having been playing against a higher level of opponent consistently for 3+ years now makes the difference. Then we have de Graaf, someone who for whatever reason I don't really get (probably relates directly to him costing me a bunch at the worlds two years ago so likely just me), he got his Pro Tour bink last year, and looks to be playing slightly better of late than when he got that, so I think he's probably the pick of these, although it's a little bit of an oddball section.
R1 - Adam Leek v David Sharp
R2 - Leek/Sharp v Greg Ritchie
R3 - Leek/Sharp/Ritchie v Mickey Mansell
We go straight in with two new card holders from the UK school. Leek won his outright on day one, while Sharp was the last man in on the points table. That said, Leek has been a bit slower to get going, while I'm always fair to people who've just got onto the tour and need to adapt to it, doing so from Australia is doubly hard. That said, the actual last three months numbers are pretty good, albeit from a slightly limited sample, and are a touch better than Sharp's, who's already made a quarter on the Pro Tour and has overall better numbers (I assume Leek has some ADA/DPA games in my database from 2025 that are drawing him down). As such, should be a competitive one. Ritchie is into year two of his card and is another player who's likely going to need to go back in January, he did enough in his first year to get a bye here, but not a lot more than that, and the form numbers are a bit down over the twelve month numbers, which were nothing special in the first place. Therefore I think whoever comes through round one has a great chance to get to Mansell, who's had some fun social media interactions of late, but not so much in terms of decent darts - the three month form stat is more than two points down on the longer samples, and while it's in its infancy, he's only just in the right positions in the world championship race list by a few hundred quid. I think Mickey should probably be fine, he wouldn't need to pick his game up too much to get the job done, but if he keeps playing like he is then this is very much a section where we could get a surprise name in the round four hat.
R1 - Michael Unterbuchner v Rusty Jake Rodriguez, Henry Coates v Neil Wild
R2 - Unterbuchner/Rodriguez v Maik Kuivenhoven, Coates/Wild v Adam Paxton
R3 - Unterbuchner/Rodriguez/Kuivenhoven v Coates/Wild/Paxton
We're now getting to the part where things start to get quite messy. Unterbuchner is still probably best known for a good BDO worlds run in 2018, and then a good Grand Slam run the same year, but he's held and lost a tour card since then, mixes things up on both the WDF and PDC secondary tour, and heck he's not even 40 so still plenty of time to push back up to the top level, should he want to. Rusty was a huge prospect a few years back, even winning the young player of the year award on here, but really hasn't kicked on since then. I mean at least he's not Rowby who I believe was last seen on a milk carton, but the numbers just aren't there to hack it at the tour card level, and of late they've got even worse, so thinking the German should push on here. Coates just about crept in through the Development Tour, but has also been doing alright on the Challenge Tour, doing enough there (he made a final last year) to get some Pro Tour call ups, and he's already placed alright this year to do the same. Wild won the quali in Solihull, where the numbers were, to be kind, variable, but he did beat Graham Hall who is not a bad player in the slightest, but I'd have to favour Coates. Kuivenhoven has a bye to round two, and is the best player in this mini section, but has never really been able to make it stick in the top 64. Maybe if 80 players retained their card he'd never have had to go to Q-School after the first time, but whatever. Unterbuchner could give him problems, Rodriguez if he remembers how to play like he can could as well, but I'll take the Dutchman. Adam Paxton is yet another player in the "won card 14 months ago, going to be two years and done" category, not being awful but not showing anywhere near enough statistically to make us think that he has any chance of sticking on the tour at this stage (which basically means making the worlds as a minimum given the new format). Does he have enough to beat Coates, if it is Coates? That's actually an open question, and I'm not sure that I'd make the card holder the favourite in that one if it comes to that. It'd probably be tight but I'll go with the young guy. I think Maik would be a bit too much for Henry, he's been around for ages now and is probably going to be just too solid here.
R1 - Simon Stevenson v Patrik Williams, Mervyn King v Aden Kirk
R2 - Stevenson/Williams v Cor Dekker, King/Kirk v Andy Boulton
R3 - Stevenson/Williams/Dekker v King/Kirk/Boulton
Wow, this group is pretty much a blast from the past. Stevenson is a known very good player who has had a final day run in this, albeit seven years ago now, and is the highest rated player in this section, albeit on very limited data. Williams has pushed on well in the last twelve months, getting one of the Development Tour spots after making a final in 2025, we've seen him a bit but the data is still somewhat limited, I'd probably favour Simon but this is between two players very much at the opposite end of their careers. King got his card back after a year away, so gets in through that although he would have got in through the Challenge Tour if not, has been looking pretty steady and is still performing at a very decent level. Kirk returns a bit from nowhere having won one of the qualifiers in Alfreton, there he put up a solid 92 average in the final, and is notable here for having beaten Phil Taylor (back when that was still a thing), and pretty much nothing else outside of that. He is still playing Challenge Tour but think that even when off the tour that King has been playing at a higher level, both in terms of his own game and level of opponent, which'd do it for me. Dekker's an interesting one, very hit and miss but did enough to get to the worlds mainly through one big Euro Tour run, his numbers are alright but kind of comparable to whoever he'd face so it'll be a case of who shows up on the day for me. Boulton is here having first appeared in this over 20 years ago. It's the second year of his card, but looking at his numbers I don't think he's the player he used to be, but while I think he'd be a dog to King he's still got just enough that he might be able to hang in there and cause him trouble. As to who comes through? I'll say King. but there's arguments for a few of them here.
R1 - Carl Sneyd v Jack Todd
R2 - Sneyd/Todd v Adam Lipscombe
R3 - Sneyd/Todd/Lipscombe v Nick Kenny
Sneyd won his card outright after a breakout 2025 where he won a Challenge Tour and ended up in the top sixteen of those rankings, getting onto quite a few of the Pro Tours and earning decent experience. Todd won the Fleetwood quali, getting into the mid-high 80s a couple of times, but never really playing anyone notable. At least in darts terms, he did beat someone who I assume is (was) a pro pool player. Might be the same guy as there is a different name from the same background elsewhere so maybe they were both just having fun. Who knows. Carl likely has the edge and will go on to face Lipscombe, who had a very good first year and at least statistically is starting 2026 strong, so I'm thinking Adam will get through to Kenny, and they're separated by basically nothing in year long stats, but with Lipscombe having decently better 3/6 month tracking, so that's who I'm taking, especially on the back of a good visit to Minehead previously.
R1 - Danny van Trijp v Scott Campbell
R2 - van Trijp/Campbell v Dennie olde Kalter
R3 - van Trijp/Campbell/olde Kalter v Ian White
We kick off with an all Challenge Tour qualifier clash, Campbell finishing slightly higher in that ranking but being behind Danny, a previous card holder and worlds participant, likely has the greater experience and the numbers indicate better quality of play, so I'll take the younger guy to give us an all Dutch second round clash. Dennie had a horrific start to his Pro Tour career before finding a final out of nowhere, but wasn't actually playing that badly, however the form numbers show a fairly bad start to 2026 as well, so it's definitely open for the CT qualifiers to move on. Then we come on to White, whose year long stats are basically the same as Dennie's, while the six month numbers are lower by a bit, and the three month numbers go down again, although haven't regressed quite so much as olde Kalter's. As such, this looks as good a shot for someone on the Challenge Tour list to make the evening maybe?
R1 - Jake Eichen v Stephen Burton, Stephen Rosney v Clive Langford
R2 - Eichen/Burton v Rosney/Langford
R3 - Eichen/Burton/Rosney/Langford v Thibault Tricole
And we get to the final spot. Fun fact - two players in this section are scoring more in the last twelve months than Dimitri is. Eichen got through the Victoria qualifier, the DC stats for that is a bit of a mess, but looks to be pretty much just a run of the mill qualifier, although he did pick up a little bit on the Challenge Tour so at least has some game to him. Probably won't matter against Burton, was close to holding his card but didn't, and has won it straight back, probably a little bit off where he was at his best but still competent enough for this. Rosney is another who got his card through the points after a couple of notable late WDF runs in 2025, he's been OK so far on the Pro Tour, and he'll face Langford, a winner through the Newport quali who finished with a couple of mid 80's averages. I think he might have a bit more of a shot than Eichen, but I think it'll be the two card holders that'll move through, and Burton is the better Stephen right now, and has vastly more experience than Rosney, so we'll put him against Tricole, who looks to be basically the same player as Burton. Thibault has had the better results, and has a knack of finding a way to win, so I'll give him the slight edge although it feels like it'll be a 6-5 sort of game one way or the other.
And that's your lot. I will try and do the usual live post for rounds 1-3, but can't guarantee it.
