Semi final thoughts

Firstly, PRAISE THE SUN in that the PDC will finally be doing the thing where they top up stage 2 of Q-School on the second and subsequent days with people who just missed out from stage 1 so we get a full 128. This is long overdue and a change that makes a lot of sense. There's a few other small things which I might get into in another post, but credit where it's due. Now, into the penultimate day - I'll be updating the Second/Third Division Darts page with anything that might have happened (I know that, at a minimum, we had Schindler play Barry), there's one last potential game if we get a Searle/Ando final, but...

Littler/Searle - Luke into the semi finals as easily as expected. Krzysztof didn't play badly, he was just outclassed, as frankly all but maybe one or two players in the field would be. Searle looked confident, but he certainly wasn't harmed by Clayton starting off atrociously on the doubles, and really not getting much better later in the game. This one might not be as one sided as the other Littler games we've had, but it should still be incredibly straight forward. Projections - 88/90/85/88

van Veen/Anderson - We thought Gian would win that quarter final. We didn't think he would win it quite as comfortably as he did. Ando's was also very comfortable, Hood didn't even win a leg on the sets where Anderson had the throw, and were it not for a little bit of sloppy finishing/scoring in set four, this one could have ended just as quick. Projections - 59/49/49/52

So in terms of value, I think we need to look at Ando. I'm seeing it as a lot closer to 50/50 than the market is which has got Gary at longer than 6/4. I'm toning down the percentage play given that the short form number is clearly the one that favours Gian the most, and given yesterday's performances, but it's not going to take me off Anderson completely. After all, there is the intangible that he has been here before. Gian hasn't. It might not make a difference but it is still a thing to be considered (that, and post-Luke win hangover ideals that we often saw after someone beat Phil back in the day).

Quarter final thoughts

Searle/Clayton - Been a really comfortable couple of rounds for Ryan, taking out Schindler and then Hurrell without dropping a set, and not really being in a position where he was looking like dropping a set either. Clayton has had to work a lot more, being forced all the way by Zonneveld and nearly having Harrysson doing the same, so if Searle having more in the tank is actually a thing in darts, it might be a thing. Projection - 55/44/47/49

Anderson/Hood - Ando's been the only player forced into overtime in rounds three or four with what looked like a probable close one with Wattimena ending up being just that, while the next round against van Gerwen was a bit closer than what the scoreline showed but still a lot more comfortable than the previous round. Hood's run has been remarkable, comfortably beating Meikle as expected, then even more comfortably beating Rock, not as expected. Projection - 72/78/83/78

Littler/Ratajski - Luke had no problems with Suljovic much as we thought. Cross made him work a bit more but it never felt like Luke was in trouble, Krzsyztof needed everything to get through Plaisier, and then a fair bit to get through Woodhouse, this of course after not having everything his own way in round two either. Big step up, and likely not going to happen. Projection - 98/98/94/97

Humphries/van Veen - Luke was made to work a bit against Clemens, although only after he was already 3-0 up so had plenty in hand to work with, while Doets couldn't really do much after getting the first set. Gian meanwhile had fairly comfortable games against Razma and Manby, not really being pressured and likely being able to put in more like he did in round two if needed, which it wasn't. Projection - 44/53/56/51

So we've got two where things rate extremely tightly, one which doesn't and then one which really, really doesn't. That last game is the clear highlight.

Round four projections

Tomorrow's will come in later tonight at some point after the Rock game, but for now I'll just put out projections for the Littler and Hurrell games:

Hurrell/Searle - 18/26/23/22

Littler/Cross - 96/89/84/90

Edit to put in the 30th games:

Woodhouse/Ratajski - 60/59/45/55

Clayton/Harrysson - 94/89/90/91

Hood/Rock - 32/17/16/22

Manby/van Veen - 14/21/15/17

van Gerwen/Anderson - 51/44/47/47

Humphries/Doets - 83/79/87/83

Round three projections

We're now at the stage where everyone has very good levels of data, except for Merk, who remains extremely limited short term and limited otherwise, so take that one under advisement, otherwise, here we go:

Plaisier/Ratajski - 69/68/44/60

Gilding/Woodhouse - 48/63/57/56

Clayton/Zonneveld - 63/70/69/67

Harrysson/Pietreczko - 39/49/39/42

Bunting/Hurrell - 89/87/84/87

Littler/Suljovic - 97/96/95/96

Schindler/Searle - 19/31/33/28

Heta/Cross - 64/43/39/49

Anderson/Wattimena - 73/67/68/69

van Veen/Razma - 94/90/82/89

Humphries/Clemens - 96/95/91/94

van Gerwen/Merk - 90/99/100/96

Hood/Meikle - 80/75/72/76

Evans/Manby - 55/48/53/52

Aspinall/Doets - 79/74/72/75

Rock/Rydz - 70/82/74/75

I suppose the ones that immediately look odd are the Plaisier game, given he's currently the underdog on the market, I think that one can be tempered somewhat given consistency numbers, Wesley's pretty much at database average since June, but Ratajski is barely over one point, which is an extremely low number, as such while Plaisier is scoring more per turn, overall it's only by half a point, made up of two better on winning legs but two worse on losing legs. The other one is Schindler being that much of a dog to Searle. This one I think is harder to explain - Schindler's more consistent but there's only about a point and a quarter between the two, it's just a combination of year long Searle scoring a point and a half per turn more than Schindler does, and that goes to over two when you look at winning legs, which is how I derive these numbers. Searle's in the top ten in the world in the percentage of legs he finishes in four visits, at 16% compared to Schindler's 12%, while his five visit percent is 65% against Schindler being just under 60%, and he has a small edge in six visit percentage as well. Over what's now first to four sets, that edge in every leg being played over and over is going to be hard to overcome. I think maybe we chuck out that short term data sample - Searle's inconsistency number is very high there at over 9 (Schindler is just under 3), so maybe we just use the two longer samples and say the shortest one should really be around where the other two are. Even then, that still points to him being a fair price of around 1.5 when he's 1.8 right now. Have a good Christmas all, I'll probably just post a round 4 projections post after the first two days are in the book, and not write up until the 31st as it's going to be manic.

Worlds round two day four thoughts

Tata/Meikle - Yikes. First set was scruffy. Second set was a bit better, third set maybe regressed a tad from there, fourth set might have been worse again especially with Tata forgetting how to hit a double in the first leg, and while the fifth set at least wasn't terrible, it wasn't anything to write home about. On paper it's a great comeback but both were such much of a muchness that it seems to me to be just variance that Jonny got up two nil rather than things going another way, nobody had a grip on that match at any point.

Gurney/Rydz - Now this one was a bit better, although still back and forth. First set was kind of a mix of missed opportunities, second and third sets Callan couldn't really get close to Gurney, but he couldn't continue it into set four, Callan playing his best stuff to date there. Then of course the first leg is a dumpster fire, could have avoided a whole string of holds where nobody got really close to breaking, until Rydz found an eleven darter in overtime, Gurney then giving him all the time in the world to kill the match off, not that he needed it.

Wattimena/Williams - This one was decidedly odd. Scott missed a bunch of doubles to go two legs down, does well to level but then runs into an eleven from Jermaine. Next set is kind of the same - except here it's more the scoring that saw Williams down 2-0. Third could easily have been a repeat except this time Jermaine missed the double for 2-0, and Scott claims it 3-1 instead. Williams then made it six straight legs to take us to a decider, only for Wattimena to sweep the decider. Solid set from Jermaine, but fuck knows what the hell Williams was thinking when, on 80 to save the match, he goes straight for double double, but on the VERY NEXT VISIT needing 10, he opts to split seconds after thinking going for the adjacent double twice is the optimal play? If you genuinely think you're good at D20 but shit at D5 then head's gone.

Wright/Merk - Don't think I'll go into this one too much. Merk was fine, but more or less anyone in the field would have won this one. Just sad to see Peter playing like this. But not surprising.

Noppert/Hood - Match of the year contender. I'll say nothing more. If you have not seen it, go away and watch it right now. It's that good.

Anderson/Scutt - Good to see Gary putting in a solid TV performance, and I think Connor putting him under a bit of early pressure with a fine start to take the opening set helped to some degree. After that, Ando looked really, really good. Even the legs Connor did take, Gary was scoring real heavily and forcing Scutt to take the chances he did take. Very promising going into what will be a tough third round match.

van Gerwen/O'Connor - This one had a fair bit of build up, especially given the players' respective first round matches, but this more or less got decided quickly after Willie missed the shot to take the first set quickly himself, proceeding to lose the next six legs and be two nil down in sets. In some he was close (was on 16 after nine in one ffs), others not so much. A set was pulled back, two good holds and then a maybe slightly fortunate break to avoid needing to serve it out, but would still need to break in the fourth and he couldn't find it. Maybe if Willie had have gone 1-0 up, this plays out a fair bit differently, but we'll never know.

Rock/Comito - Not a great deal to say in this one - much like yesterday, this one was just a big mismatch, Rock posting a ton average without ever really getting out of second gear. Which is a good sign for him. Joe wasn't bad but just couldn't score heavily enough by comparison.

Might have round three projections up later. Might be tomorrow. Might be Friday. It'll be in time to punt though.

Worlds round two day three thoughts

Beveridge/Razma - Not the most interesting of games really. Madars completely in control of set one, although for his break he was gifted things a bit when Darren botched his approach play. Set two was a bit more even with Beveridge coming into it more but Razma continued to look the better player. Darren then got a set back, but couldn't make it 2-2 when he should have done, and the Latvian played well enough to finish the match off. Not a bad standard, but a fairly forgettable match.

Nijman/Clemens - Oh dear oh dear. This one set me back a bit, and it was basically Wessel, for want of a better word, choking. First set, leg three was the break. Yes, people will look at him missing three clear at double, which is bad, but he only got those because Clemens got massively ahead after Nijman couldn't score with his first six darts. The second set was better, but this one can definitely be put down to missed doubles. Neither player did a lot wrong until Nijman, wanting 16 for the set with Gabriel sat on tops, misses three at it. Great. Then all the legs in set three were complete gifts. Real shame, I thought he'd got over not playing great on TV but I guess we'll have to wait for that.

Munyua/Doets - Was a fun story while it lasted, but Kevin's just too steady a player. David didn't play bad at all here, it was just a case of being a bit inconsistent, that'll come with more play, he can certainly hit a big score but, like in the last leg of set one, a 180 doesn't help if you're that far behind that your opponent is sat on a double.

Wade/Evans - Really, really not sure how Ricky pulled that one off. First set was four decent holds, then in the decider, Wade missed and Ricky didn't. Set two was a very good recovery by James, then set three was a bit like set one. Two good holds, then they swap gifts of breaks, before Wade picked a real bad time to have his worst scoring leg of the match. Wade levelled well, got up 2-0 without allowing Evans to be able to do much of anything, third leg was a bit scrappy but Wade got it anyway, then we go to set five. Huge out from Ricky to break and then get 2-0 up, but scoring fell apart in leg 3 (similar to the last game, 180 coming way too late), then doubling fell apart to close it out in leg 4. They both kind of do that in leg 5 but Evans eventually nicks it, before missing another match dart and letting Wade back in (awful choice of bull route, but it worked). Wade held well and then generated his own match dart which he couldn't take, then missed one to hold for 5-4 and it goes 4-5 instead, Ricky finding the perfect time to throw his best leg of the match.

van Veen/Soutar - Marker thrown down here. Soots did well to get set one, a mix of good legs of his own and taking advantage of maybe the only thing Gian did wrong all match, but after that it was pretty much all one way traffic. Soutar got another couple of legs, but van Veen was more or less unplayable after that.

Aspinall/Gates, Humphries/Lim, Manby/Sevada - I'm going to group these all together as they were pretty much all the same game really. First one was the closest one, but Gates never really threatened, one leg was very good but at least one of the other two was only gifted by Aspinall missing doubles. Lim didn't play badly, but Luke was on it - at least for eight legs, the ninth was a cluster, but that got corrected easily enough. The last one was the closest with the bookies but it should have been more one sided, Charlie was not playing as well as he can do, but frankly he didn't need to, Sevada only really doing anything at all in the one leg he held well in fifteen. Kind of makes for a poor session loading things up like this, but I think that's partially just the way things happened.

Worlds round two day two thoughts

Joyce/Ratajski - This one seemed too close to call pre game, but it didn't prove overly close as it played out. Ratajski had a great first set killing it with a fabulous check out, second one seemed kind of similar - excellent on throw, was not as good against the throw, but was able to take advantage of Ryan making a right mess of doubles in leg four. Joyce pulled things together somewhat in set three, although outside of the last leg he was allowing Krzysztof darts at double, while it'd be missed doubles again for Ryan in set four. A couple in leg one and more in leg two, basically killed his chances, and it was finished off solidly straight afterwards. A good marker.

Cullen/Suljovic - Oh boy, Cullen's lost his mind here. It is almost as if it is news to him that Suljovic does not play at the same pace as Ricky Evans. Jesus. First set was kind of meh from him outside of the 170 but he took it, then he broke to start set two after Mensur just couldn't score. That ought to have been ballgame, but Mensur had some good legs and took advantage of a poor one from Joe to level. Not even dead in the third set, started off great to go up 2-0, but then make a right mess of two legs and with Suljovic playing fine in the other, it's 2-1. Mensur then did just enough to take the match, for what it's worth.

Woodhouse/Hopp - Incredibly straight forward stuff for Luke. Max had chances in leg three to keep the first set alive, couldn't take them, god knows what happened in the last leg of set two, third set saw him get on the board, and he had half a chance - missed darts in leg three, and making a right mess of 71 in leg four. Not fabulous stuff from Luke but it really didn't need to be.

Cross/White - This became a bit of a slugfest. Cross was pretty good in set one, fell apart in set two, set three was a sweep without putting together a great deal of note, then set four was basically back and forth holds until White made a mess of 91 in the deciding leg, letting Rob in for 82 and the match. Nowhere near Rob's best stuff, but Ian really couldn't stay with him on the scoring (doubling was just fine).

Schindler/Barry - Some tight sets here. The first could have been easier for Martin, getting over the line when Keane missed set darts, second set saw Keane get a fortunate break to open, go up 2-0, only to see Martin get a couple of very well timed good legs to clear the set up. Third set saw four straight solid holds, only for something to happen with Keane's second dart at 72 for the set, allowing Schindler to step in and claim the match.

Price/Plaisier - We thought we had some shocks on day one. Hold my beer was announced. I wouldn't say necessarily the result - I did have a small flier on Wesley. More the size of the victory, I don't think anybody saw 3-0 coming in. First set was two good holds by Plaisier then a  break when neither could really score, set two was kind of similar, quick break, quick hold, Price gets one back but couldn't hit the one dart he had for 2-2 and Plaisier's three holds away. He then gets those - five visit hold, five visit hold, should have been another one but match darts were missed, however Gerwyn returned the favour and let Plaisier in for the match. This completely destroys the top quarter as a contest, sure Littler was massively odds on, but losing the 8 and 9 seeds early makes for an incredibly simple quarter final.

Littler/Davies - Davies didn't play badly here. At all. He just missed key doubles at important times, particularly in the first and last sets, and against Luke you can't be doing that. Kind of feel that if David had have nicked the first then Luke would have just stepped up a gear or two and kept him at arms length, but he didn't so we'll never know. 

Heta/Bellmont - Damon dodged a bullet here. Didn't show up at all in the first set, letting Stefan take it comfortably, then woke up and looked really solid in set two. Set three was then back to set one - really couldn't score, it wasn't quite as bad but it puts Damon on the ropes. Fourth set could very easily have gone south, missing one for the set and letting Bellmont in for 2-2 and darts for the match, but thankfully he missed two, then Heta brought out his best stuff when it mattered the most.