Luke wins shocker

No, not that one. New FRH rankings:

1 Luke Littler

2 Gian van Veen

3 Luke Humphries

4 Jonny Clayton (UP 1)

5 Gerwyn Price (UP 1)

6 James Wade (DOWN 2)

7 Gary Anderson

8 Josh Rock

9 Ryan Searle

10 Danny Noppert

11 Stephen Bunting

12 Michael van Gerwen

13 Chris Dobey (UP 1)

14 Nathan Aspinall (DOWN 1)

15 Wessel Nijman (UP 3)

16 Jermaine Wattimena (DOWN 1)

17 Ross Smith (DOWN 1)

18 Martin Schindler (DOWN 1)

19 Luke Woodhouse

20 Damon Heta

Not a huge amount doing. We've only had the two Euro Tours since the last update. Clayton and Price getting a final each bumps them over Wade, who missed one as well but lost first game in the one he did show in. Dobey did significantly better than Aspinall over the two and that's enough to bump him one place, while Nijman obviously won one to move him up to 15th, but there's a huge gap up from there, it's more than another ET bink to Aspinall right now. A bit lower down, Zonneveld getting to two semis sees him closing up on the top 32, bit of a way to go but there's a few players moving in the wrong direction ahead of him. Cristo Reyes is also up into the top 100 as he continues his impressive PDC return.

On the punting side, it was close to break even, down about 1%. Basically Andy Baetens covered everyone else fucking up. We've now got a bit of a break until a couple of Pro Tours this time next week and the day after, then the Easter Euro Tour. Until then, I'll have to try not to get into arguments on Reddit about people who can't even spell probability :-)

ET3 quarters

Actually had slight change of plans so I can blast out projections before the quarters. Baetens pulls through for us again to break even for the session, although it was a case of what could have been as while the two wins I had were 6-5's, the three losses were as well. Rushing onto the quarters, now with less Littler:

Zonneveld/Noppert - 53/48/48/50

Clayton/Baetens - 53/69/61 (still no short data on Baetens, nor would we get it if he gets deeper)

Humphries/Dobey - 71/61/62/65

van Gerwen/Joyce - 80/80/74/78

Mostly pretty flat. Interesting to see Humphries appears to be a bit better on form which is not necessarily what I would have expected, but it is what it is. Also cool to see Neil Duff pick up a title on home soil, very weird mix of known names (going out relatively deep) and newer names (who went deeper). Cool to see.

ET3 round three

Bit of a rough day. Heta, Aspinall and Rock letting me down for decent chunks threw a big spanner in the works, Baetens recovered a fair bit of it but regardless it shifts a solid day one pickup into a loss for the tournament. Not huge, only a couple of percent of bankroll, but annoying never the less. Let's jump into round three, and unlike last week where I said there'd probably be no quarter final suggestions, only to make them, there won't be for sure because Mickey Mouse cup final. Anyway, here we go:

Littler/Zonneveld - 79/80/78/79

Noppert/Searle - 43/44/46/44

Clayton/Smith - 39/50/51/47

Baetens/Schindler - 63/42/52 (still no short data on Baetens)

Humphries/Wattimena - 80/72/71/74

Huybrechts/Dobey - 36/30/28/31

van Gerwen/Gurney - 73/80/72/75

Reyes/Joyce - 68/59/54/60

Betfair haven't got all the markets up yet, but looking at conventional bookies there could be a bit of value here. I'll be up in the morning for the end of the basho so will check back then and hopefully print.

ET3 round two

That was alright. Lost very small pieces on Gawlas and Thorpe, which were more than offset by decent chunks on Baetens and van Duijvenbode. We'll take those wins. Let's look into round two. Most recent data sample first, last number is the composite.

Smith/Menzies - 77/58/66/67

Wattimena/Meikle - 60/59/69/63

Dobey/Chisnall - 76/77/68/74

Searle/Evans - 75/66/66/69

Schindler/O'Connor - 49/44/55/49

Heta/Gurney - 81/75/68/75

Noppert/Woodhouse - 51/58/57/55

Aspinall/Joyce - 80/78/69/76

Wade/Reyes - 56/57/60/58

Clayton/Bialecki - 69/77/78/75

Bunting/Baetens - 56/72/64 (not enough short data on Baetens)

de Decker/Zonneveld - 38/45/49/44

Littler/Krcmar - insufficient data on Krcmar

Humphries/van Duijvenbode - 74/64/60/66

van Gerwen/Mansell - 73/75/76/75

Rock/Huybrechts - 64/69/76/70

Could be some value there. We'll see. 

ET3

I'll hold off on an FRH rankings update until after this weekend, but it's quickly back into action with more Euro Tour goodness, Nijman binked and is now up above Wattimena into the top 15, let's see how things continue.

Zonneveld/Haavisto - no projection (insufficient data on Haavisto)

Woodhouse/Devroey - no projection (no data on Devroey)

Williams/Evans - 49/35/45/43

Joyce/Gawlas - 33/44/52/43

Menzies/Lap - 61 (only long data on Lap)

O'Connor/Thorpe - 65/65/65 (insufficient short data on Thorpe)

Meikle/Schweyen - no projection (insufficient data on Schweyen)

Smith/Mansell - 68/56/64/62

Chisnall/Tricole - 42/49/62/51

Ratajski/Reyes - 71/59/60/63

Cullen/Baetens - 36/49/43 (insufficient short data on Baetens)

Nijman/Bialecki - 81/81/77/80

van Barneveld/Krcmar - no projection (insufficient data on Krcmar)

Gurney/White - 70/57/59/62

Springer/Huybrechts - 51/52/58/54

van Duijvenbode/Wenig - 70/70/77/72

Of those we don't have data on, the two in the latter session are known quantities, Baetens is obviously good and didn't drop below 90 from the last 64 in the quali, and I think with how Barney's playing Krcmar will have more than enough chances, although he was a bit more up and down in his quali (although that was two months ago). In the afternoon session, Haavisto returns after fuck knows how long, hit a couple of 90's early in his quali but was mostly in the mid 80's. Devroey is a brand new name to me who barely scraped into the eighties a couple of times and seems to have got a pretty favourable draw throughout. Lap and Thorpe are new card holders that have had a bit of a slow start and didn't appear that often in 2025, while Schweyen is a WDF worlds quarter finalist who we've seen get through these a couple of times before, had a big 98 average in the semis but that was a bit of an outlier, typically again in the mid 80's. Could be a couple of interesting spots as we've got quite a few players in indifferent form. Back in the evening tomorrow to sort round two.

ET2 quarters

Small profit round three. Takes me back up to exactly where we were prior to the UK Open. Let's have a quick look at the quarters, quick change of plan from what I said but it is what it is:

Veenstra/Zonneveld - 42/39/37/39

Rock/Nijman - 43/49/58/50

Springer/Heta - 37/40/42/40

Price/van Duijvenbode - 75/66/57/66

So matches 1 and 3 look to be pretty consistent throughout all samples, Rock is doing substantially worse in more recent samples than he was doing over a longer period (which if you've watched any of the Premier League, you can have a good guess at anyway), while van Duijvenbode is showing the same thing, but even more exaggerated - part of that I think is Price sunrunning (since December he's second in the world in scoring only to Littler, Dirk's actually top ten but with a really tiny consistency number meaning that the projection is favouring Price maybe a little too much) but it does feel like Dirk was doing comparatively better in the middle of 2025 compared to now. I won't get round to a semi projection, but it feels like quarters 2 and 4 are a lot stronger than the other two.

Hook that up to my veins - ET2 round 3

Ah, I have missed that feeling. Hitting 9/9 on bets. It really doesn't happen very often at all, but my god it is nice when it does. That said, all that has done is undone 95% of the damage that was the UK Open, but let's see if we can push things any further tomorrow at all. Must remember that this, for whatever reason, starts an hour early tomorrow.

Searle/Veenstra - 62/69/70/67

Zonneveld/Wattimena - 55/52/48/52

Rock/Dobey - 50/48/56/51

van Veen/Nijman - 65/64/58/62

Springer/Smith - 28/35/35/33

Doets/Heta - 53/53/42/49

Noppert/Price - 22/31/34/29

Suljovic/van Duijvenbode - 35/32/28/32

I am guessing I am going to head out for the football tomorrow so getting anything up for the quarters seems basically impossible, but those are your round three lines. This looks like a super fun last sixteen, and final day in general. Until Price just walks home and denies us a new winner or something like that :)