ET12 quarters

Time to quickly throw this up before the Arsenal game, got away with a big one in the Noppert game for sure:

Price/Smith - 57/60/65/61

O'Connor/Humphries - 28/26/24/26

Clayton/van Gerwen - 57/46/45/49

Noppert/Littler - 16/17/19/17

Couple of games that might be good there. Then a couple of games that don't rate as interesting at all. If Humphries goes through, then it'd be too close to call against Price (and hence around about the same if it was against Smith), while Littler/Clayton would be around the 80/20 mark (assuming the same if it was MvG given how close that quarter is overall, but periodic data might swing it one way or the other ever so slightly).

And if we do get the "dream final" (which we've seen a dozen times this season already), it's probably about 70/30 in favour of Littler. Humphries would be more of a 2-1 shot in longer data, but the most recent form (which is basically Littler crushing the Matchplay and not that much else) is that favourable to the younger Luke that it moves the needle enough that it's smack bang in between 2-1 and 3-1 over the weighted averages.

ET12 round 3

This is another short notice one I know, but long day at the football yesterday. Hopefully next week will be less flustered as I'm at a local home game, but let's just jump straight into the last sixteen. Saturday started out well with decent pick ups on Noppert and Menzies, but then pretty much entirely went to shit. Rock won so we did at least broke even with the many losing bets primarily being minimum plays, but none of the others outside of maybe Bunting were really close.

Price/Menzies - 62/66/71/66

van Veen/Smith - 38/44/58/47

Rock/O'Connor - 55/57/63/58

Humphries/Gilding - 66/76/77/73

Clayton/Barry - 69/62/69/67

van Gerwen/Nijman - 42/44/48/45

Woodhouse/Noppert - 47/57/50/51

Littler/Ratajski - 91/83/85/86

Really not seeing much of value there, except Littler might be oddly undervalued.

ET12 round two

Yikes, that was not nice. Huybrechts missing a match dart, Scutt blowing a 4-2 lead, and then Dirk doing Dirk things, not pretty. Could have been worse for sure, but not really what I was hoping to see. Anyway, let's jump into round two and I don't have a lot of time to do it:

Jermaine Wattimena v Krzysztof Ratajski - 41/50/51/47

Ryan Searle v William O'Connor - 65/60/63/63

Danny Noppert v Kevin Doets - 54/43/48/48

Gary Anderson v Cameron Menzies - 51/68/68/62

Chris Dobey v Keane Barry - 70/70/74/71

Ross Smith v Stephen Burton - 79/71/73/74

Nathan Aspinall v Andrew Gilding - 76/75/70/74

Wessel Nijman v Martin Schindler - 63/66/68/66

Gian van Veen v Jeffrey de Graaf - 45/49/68/54

Jonny Clayton v Damon Heta - 56/51/53/53

Gerwyn Price v Callan Rydz - 51/68/70/63

Luke Littler v Niko Springer - 88/84/85/86

Luke Humphries v Beau Greaves - 56/71/74/67

Michael van Gerwen v Mario Vandenbogaerde - 70/75/76/74

Josh Rock v Ryan Joyce - 62/68/72/67

Stephen Bunting v Luke Woodhouse - 61/45/55/54

Let's rebuild!

ET12 round one

I'll hold on a FRH update until after ET13 I think, as that is the Grand Prix cutoff. Not that those two things are in any way related, it just seems like a more natural place to do it. Anyway, the draw dropped fairly recently, we do have the draw for the quali out and it looks like Sedlacek would be HNQ1 and Gawlas HNQ3 if they do get through things, so I'll do provisional projections for them. Nobody else from Czechia has anywhere near the legs needed, neither does Homola who won the Eastern Europe qualifier (he is in the database, but only for a single Dev Tour quarter run earlier this season). Engstrom has the legs but maybe not for full data sets. Anyway, here we go:

Rydz/Reyes - 72/53/56/60

Menzies/Engstrom - 72 (only full data on Engstrom)

Zonneveld/de Graaf - 35/45/52/44

Cullen/Burton - 66/64/62/64

Joyce/Huybrechts - 28/28/33/30

Gurney/Greaves - 47/44/38/43

Heta/Sedlacek (provisional) - 67/61/65/64

Cross/Barry - 63/64/64/64

van Duijvenbode/Vandenbogaerde - 73/75/74/74

Schindler/Owen - 49/54/51/51

Woodhouse/Scutt - 49/59/56/55

Doets/Evans - 58/65/62/62

Ratajski/Gawlas (provisional) - 60/61/60/60

Note when I say provisional, the numbers aren't going to change (I don't include ET qualifiers in the database, although as the final round is effectively for ranking money, maybe I should include that?), it's only just to saw we are assuming the card holders will come through. If they don't, we have no prediction.

ET11 quarters

Ah, that felt good. Hitting on all of Smudger, Asp and the Aubergenius gives us a very solid 3/3 in the last sixteen, and finally reverse the bankroll top up I did prior to the worlds. Keep running closer than this, and we'll be able to pull back all of the initial investment and be playing completely with house money, but let's not get ahead of ourselves, things can change pretty rapidly but nice to hit an arbitrary milestone at least. Four quarters to come, here's what I'm thinking:

van Duijvenbode/Noppert - 59/60/56/58

Smith/Chisnall - 65/68/68/67

van Veen/Anderson - 39/36/45/40

Aspinall/Dobey - 55/52/52/53

Minorly significant implications for Chisnall, if he can extend what's already been a bit of a surprising run he can solidify a Grand Prix spot, he can't overtake anyone with a win but it would put him more than two second round ET appearances ahead of the last man out with just two Euro Tours left, which may be important given he doesn't appear to be in either of them (although, with Bialecki and Huybrechts only seemingly in one of them each, he may be in an unassailable spot as it is). More critical, it seems as if Anderson prior to this weekend didn't have any European ranking money *at all*, which seems incredible but believable, and yeah, on a quick check this is only his third one and he bricked the first two. He'd need a win to get into the spots, but hey, if he can reach the final that'd put a big chunk into the race as it is.

ET11 day 3

That wasn't great, but it wasn't awful. Woodhouse missing match darts was the kicker, the only loser outside of that who was close was Edhouse, who wasn't really close. Still, at least Aspinall didn't shit the bed and Dirk got the job done, so what was lost today ended up less than what was made yesterday. Let's jump straight into the last sixteen before I pass out:

Dirk van Duijvenbode v Rob Cross - 50/56/58/55

Danny Noppert v Ryan Searle - 47/43/45/45

Jonny Clayton v Ross Smith - 45/42/46/44

Keane Barry v Dave Chisnall - 48/51/48/49

Gian van Veen v Jermaine Wattimena - 54/57/66/59

Stephen Bunting v Gary Anderson - 48/32/38/39

Michael van Gerwen v Nathan Aspinall - 37/43/45/42

Josh Rock v Chris Dobey - 33/43/47/41

ET11 day 2

This needs to be very brief as I have a VERY early start for football tomorrow:

Humphries - van Duijvenbode: 61/64/63/63

Woodhouse - Cross: 43/52/51/49

Noppert - Edhouse: 45/46/56/49

Searle - Springer: 54/59/63/59

Clayton - Kadar: Insufficient data on Kadar

Smith - O'Connor: 64/66/64/65

Razma - Barry: 52/46/50/49

Nijman - Chisnall: 67/70/72/70

van Veen - Major: Insufficient data on Major

Wattimena - Gilding: 54/54/55/54

Bunting - Masalin: Insufficient data on Masalin

Anderson - Ratajski: 61/68/71/67

van Gerwen - Hurrell: 81/67/68/72

Aspinall - Joyce: 83/77/78/79

Rock - Cullen: 48/54/62/55

Dobey - Sykes: 63/62/63/63

Wow at some of today's results.