Round three projections

We're now at the stage where everyone has very good levels of data, except for Merk, who remains extremely limited short term and limited otherwise, so take that one under advisement, otherwise, here we go:

Plaisier/Ratajski - 69/68/44/60

Gilding/Woodhouse - 48/63/57/56

Clayton/Zonneveld - 63/70/69/67

Harrysson/Pietreczko - 39/49/39/42

Bunting/Hurrell - 89/87/84/87

Littler/Suljovic - 97/96/95/96

Schindler/Searle - 19/31/33/28

Heta/Cross - 64/43/39/49

Anderson/Wattimena - 73/67/68/69

van Veen/Razma - 94/90/82/89

Humphries/Clemens - 96/95/91/94

van Gerwen/Merk - 90/99/100/96

Hood/Meikle - 80/75/72/76

Evans/Manby - 55/48/53/52

Aspinall/Doets - 79/74/72/75

Rock/Rydz - 70/82/74/75

I suppose the ones that immediately look odd are the Plaisier game, given he's currently the underdog on the market, I think that one can be tempered somewhat given consistency numbers, Wesley's pretty much at database average since June, but Ratajski is barely over one point, which is an extremely low number, as such while Plaisier is scoring more per turn, overall it's only by half a point, made up of two better on winning legs but two worse on losing legs. The other one is Schindler being that much of a dog to Searle. This one I think is harder to explain - Schindler's more consistent but there's only about a point and a quarter between the two, it's just a combination of year long Searle scoring a point and a half per turn more than Schindler does, and that goes to over two when you look at winning legs, which is how I derive these numbers. Searle's in the top ten in the world in the percentage of legs he finishes in four visits, at 16% compared to Schindler's 12%, while his five visit percent is 65% against Schindler being just under 60%, and he has a small edge in six visit percentage as well. Over what's now first to four sets, that edge in every leg being played over and over is going to be hard to overcome. I think maybe we chuck out that short term data sample - Searle's inconsistency number is very high there at over 9 (Schindler is just under 3), so maybe we just use the two longer samples and say the shortest one should really be around where the other two are. Even then, that still points to him being a fair price of around 1.5 when he's 1.8 right now. Have a good Christmas all, I'll probably just post a round 4 projections post after the first two days are in the book, and not write up until the 31st as it's going to be manic.