Monday, 7 August 2017

Jenkins watch

With not many months at all until Alexandra Palace, it's getting increasingly down to the wire as to whether we'll see Terry Jenkins on the stage, who's currently ranked 28th in terms of money that will count towards seedings. Let's have a quick look at the ten players ranked immediately below him - the figures indicated show the amount of money they're currently behind, not counting any money that's guaranteed already:

#29 Justin Pipe (-1500) - has qualified for two European Tour events next month and, barring shenanigans, the Grand Prix, so he's clear.
#30 Brendan Dolan (-6000) - has qualified for one European Tour event for a grand, will not be making the Grand Prix, but is looking fairly safe for the Players Championship Finals for another minimum two and a half grand, so will need 2500 from either making the last European Tour (qualifier is in Dublin, which may help), winning in the one he's at already, or from the remaining Pro Tour events. This looks to be a fairly decent shout.
#31 James Wilson (-8250) - Similar to Dolan, except not as safe for the Players Championship Finals, so will have some work to do, but on the other hand he is in a much better position to qualify for the European Championship, so one win in Maastricht could easily count for six grand towards closing the gap.
#32 Vincent van der Voort (-11000) - The Euros haven't had their qualifiers yet, so with Vincent having one home qualifier and two continental ones to catch up on, he's probably getting a couple of grand minimum (should figure he qualifies at home, and he's got a 50% strike rate in qualifying on the others), which would see him make the European Championship fairly certainly. He's also right on the cutoff that Burton's projecting for the Players Championship Finals, so that eleven grand gap looks very certain to disappear.
#33 Christian Kist (-19500) - Now the gaps are getting larger, but the difference between van der Voort and Kist is that Kist's been doing work this year - he is close to a lock for the three majors still to be held, which brings things down by two thirds, and like van der Voort has a home qualifer and three other European events to take part in. I'd be more surprised if Kist didn't pass Jenkins than if van der Voort didn't.
#34 Chris Dobey (-20250) - Nothing in Europe to look forward to and looking unlikely to make any majors other than the Players Championship Finals, for which he still needs some money, I doubt that he can catch Jenkins before the cutoff.
#35 Steve West (-22250) - Has one European qualification in the bank, which puts him tentatively in the Grand Prix, but could do with a win for some added safety. He's not looking like making Hasselt, but is solidly in the Players Championship Finals, so if he has a couple of tour runs, he could come close.
#36 John Henderson (-24250) - Henderson's safe in every major and one Euro Tour, so needs another ten grand from somewhere. This isn't that bad a shout - he could make the last European event, should be at least live to win one round in the Players Championship finals, and still has four Pro Tour events to go. Could be a coinflip
#37 Jamie Caven (-25750) - LOL
#38 Rob Cross (-30250) - Thirty grand isn't that much when you consider that twelve and a half of it is in the bank from the remaining majors, he is seeded for the rest of the European Tour events, which while counting for nothing yet, will count for three grand a piece if he wins one match, and he's Rob Cross.

So how can Jenkins qualify? He's going to have to play something. Getting to Ireland seems key - play the last European qualifier and the two Pro Tour events there and get something on the board, then reassess. Annoyingly, the Grand Slam qualifier (which all of these can play as well obviously) doesn't tie in with any ranking events, but the last two Pro Tour events are midweek, which may see a weakened field from a few of the players who are still part time.

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