Thursday, 30 August 2018

Hildesheim bets

0.25u Payne 4/5, seems a good price for a winner on tour this year when the model's thinking this is nearer a 1/2 game.

Webster's a bit shorter with a bit less chances of winning, so given his lack of form I can pass this one.

1u Anderson 2/9, he's up near 90% to win this so even at these odds this looks quite safe.

As Hänsch is unknown I'll pass his game.

Dekker's odds against, which surprises me a touch, as he's playing Labanauskas who could be a little underrated and off a fairly limited sample I'm inclined to pass, it's close though. Dekker at least won his qualifier yesterday.

North/Meulenkamp line looks plumb so not bet there.

0.25u Gilding 7/4, this one may end up looking silly given the model seems to underrate Hopp and it is in Germany, but I'm going to trust the process if we're getting nearly 2/1 on a player the model projects to win.

0.25u Ratajski 13/10, now this line just looks plain off. Can't be all bookies palping at the same time surely? The Pole should be the favourite here barring any injury news I've not seen.

0.25u Schindler 8/13, line seems way too close for my liking, Martin's really very good and Pipe's not going to score enough I don't think.

Pallett/Rasztovits line looks good enough to not consider a bet, may be tiny value on Rasztovits but it's not enough to start punting.

0.25u Wilson 11/8, this seems like another Ratajski line, where I think it should be the other way round, at least in this one we know Wattimena's playing OK and can see where they're coming from, but I've got James as the favourite so let's go with it.

Lewis/Alcinas I've not looked at as I was expecting this to be de Zwaan, but if Alcinas can beat de Zwaan he can beat Adie - 0.1u Alcinas 7/2.

Smith's only just north of evens against Jenkins, that's not quite enough to go with it in a game that could be decided on who wins the bull.

Might be tiny value on Marijanovic against Thornton but the market looks to have a fair bit of vig right now so nothing here, if someone offers 6/4 then have a look I guess.

0.25u Evans 6/4, as stated below I think this is a much closer line with Ricky having a tiny edge over Noppert, it's really close but 6/4 seems to be just on name value.

Reyes/Blum I really don't have an opinion on, was expecting this to be Clemens and I don't think I can translate the logic used to bet on Alcinas here given we're only getting 5/2 on the German.

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