Saturday 1 September 2018

Hildesheim day 2 bets

I think everyone can agree that was a pretty successful day, only missed match darts from Alcinas in a what the heck long shot flyer preventing a clean sweep of results. The scores from yesterday are into the master computer, so let's see what we've got:

Chisnall/Webster - Webby wasn't actually too bad yesterday, getting half his legs in under fifteen darts but an average under 80 in those he lost let Evetts take him all the way so it turned a bit scrappy, Chizzy's a big step up and he should win this more than 70% of the time, at 2/5 there's no value on this game.

Price/Dekker - Jan managed to grind the first game out against Labanauskas, he'll need to improve against Gerwyn. No question. How Price plays after the surgery is a question. The model gives him more than a two in three shot. He's 8/13. Dekker didn't look too great yesterday. If he wasn't right it'd be real easy for him to withdraw, so what the heck, 0.25u Price 8/13.

Bunting/Meulenkamp - Ron was very good in a crushing win over Richard North, averaging over a ton and getting two twelve or better dart legs, this is what we know he can do, he just doesn't do it often enough. Similar tale for Bunting, I never really know whether his form is picking up or not, I've got this fairly tight, at 11/8 I guess there's marginal value but not really enough to recommend a bet.

Cullen/Payne - I guess we can call Josh's performance yesterday professional, if he wants to take the next step he needs to make a final session of one of these to get money in the bank for TV majors (other than the worlds where he should be absolutely fine). This one should be a lot tighter than what the line suggests, I've got Payne at over 45% to win, even if we say that Cullen will outperform because it's a stage game I don't think that we can not bet, 0.25u Payne 9/5.

Gurney/Johnson - Darren did what he needed to do in sweeping the German newcomer (would be interested to see when the last time was that a German won on debut on the European Tour - anyone?), Gurney's a step up in class and five out of six legs in over fifteen darts shouldn't cut it here, I've got Gurney at a bit over 75%, so a 3/10 line isn't of interest.

Smith/Ratajski - The Polish Eagle needed a late break in a good quality game against van der Voort, but got it after coming from behind to level, Smith has had some right mediocre games since the last Euro Tour event so who knows what might happen. I think there's a little bit of value in Krzysztof, 5/2 would indicate a winning chance of just under 30%, I've got it at 35%, so with him playing well yesterday and Smith being a bit indifferent, let's go 0.25u Ratajski 5/2.

Beaton/Schindler - Martin got past Justin Pipe in what was a game to miss, and the line against Beaton is a flip for all intents and purposes. I can't separate either of them, Schindler being at nearly 52% to win, avoid this one, both for betting and possibly for viewing.

Whitlock/Rasztovits - Michael didn't do too badly in seeing off Pallett, and comes in as a big dog against Whitlock, and I can see why looking at the model, it saying that this is around 70/30 in favour of the Aussie. 10/3 is therefore kind of tempting, but I'm not seeing Michael as the sort that can hold it together to beat a seed in practice, I can't see on dartsdatabase that he's managed to get past this stage at all, so I'm leaning to avoiding this one.

Clayton/Wilson - Lethal Biscuit was indeed lethal to edge out Wattimena in a game that had high and low points, he'll need to be a bit more consistent against the Ferret, but the model actually spits this out as a coinflip, with James actually very slightly favoured. As such, 0.25u Wilson 6/4.

Wade/Thornton - Double in nine dart frenzy please? His game against Marijanovic wasn't a classic, and he'll need to up his game against the Machine, the bookies have Thornton down as around a 30% shot and I'm inclined to agree with that line, hopefully Rob's game will click and we can have a decent match, but I'm not holding my breath.

Webster/Evans - Ricky got past Noppert with Danny not playing too great, Ricky just capitalising and taking what was given. This'll be a stiffer test, Webster rating as perhaps too much of a favourite in the market, a 44% shot getting 13/8 is fairly close to firing, I'm just not convinced that Ricky did well enough yesterday to grab the chances that he'll need to in order to get over the line.

Cross/Anderson - Kyle nearly hit a nine after getting in all sorts of trouble against Lee Bryant, his final statline was four good legs and six awful legs, which if you do that against Cross, you lose. Market has this 75/25 in favour of the world champion, the model is throwing out nearer a 2-1 split. That's interesting. Anderson's under a bit of pressure to do well and that's usually when his game loses a bit, then again maybe the nine dart effort will ignite confidence. What the heck, 0.25u Anderson 14/5.

Suljovic/Gilding - Goldfinger's game against Max Hopp was better than I expected it to be, and he's a huge underdog to Mensur despite that. We all know what Gilding can do at his peak, and that's compete at a level where he can beat Suljovic, but that was three and a half years ago now (oddly, in that UK Open run, it was Suljovic he beat in the quarter final). The model says bet Gilding, but as always it likely underestimates Mensur, and looking at Gilding's game yesterday, there were far too many 60's, 45's etc to be healthy. 9/2's a big number in a two horse race, but no.

King/Lewis - Adie only just survived yesterday against Alcinas, and now comes in as a 1/2 favourite against recent Pro Tour winner Mervyn King. This is closer than that, Lewis wasn't convincing in round one and with King having some recent form I like the look of 0.25u King 9/5.

White/Jenkins - I like the sound of this game, it's a pity it can't have been played with the Jenkins from a few years ago, with today's Jenkins being a 3/1 dog. Jenkins may have some value at that price - as regular readers know, the model absolutely loves White, and yet it's still only spitting out that he wins this game just over two times out of three. Jenkins did OK yesterday bit Smith was extremely ordinary and never really threatened the Bull, the gut says no and thinks that Jenkins might not hold it together if he can keep it close.

van Gerwen/Reyes - Cristo was not tested by Blum at all, and didn't need to do anything special to win, the last three won legs all coming in over six visits (and he had seven to take the last one that Blum did as well). At 10/1, this might be the sort of game where you can lay MvG, in that even if a combination of your player hitting a peak that gives him a chance against van Gerwen (which nobody disputes is in Reyes' locker) and van Gerwen not just crushing and giving you no chance at all is unlikely, it's not less than 10% unlikely. If Reyes had done anything in the first round to suggest he could hit the first part I'd bet him, but he hasn't so I won't.

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