Sunday, 2 September 2018

Hildesheim quarter final - just one bet

0.25u Wilson 11/10 vs Meulenkamp - despite Ron playing well so far, Wilson's been pretty decent this weekend as well, and over our sample size he's projecting at around 60/40 - which with the market being unable to split the two, looks like a decent edge.

Chisnall's close but I'd like a bit more than 5/1, it should be a bet but van Gerwen's not lost a leg yet, and despite Dave's round two performance being stellar, he didn't have it his own way at all against a rejuvenated Terry Jenkins, which is not a good sign, and while van Gerwen has a pretty good head to head against more or less anyone, Chisnall's on an 18 game losing streak against van Gerwen (plus one Premier League draw), so there's always a risk that Dave's mentally beaten at the outset. Lewis/Cullen is close in the market and I have it just as close in the model, right down to Adie being the marginal 10/11 favourite, and Cross/Suljovic also looks to be a decently priced line, so nothing there - Cross is better but he's not 65%+ to win the game better that we need before we think about betting.

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