Thursday, 13 September 2018

Riesa round 1 preview - now featuring multiple unknown players

Why yes, we've had a player come through the domestic qualifiers that I've never heard of. For a tournament in Germany that's quite an effort, but that's where we are.

Lennon/Kovacs - I have no idea who Steve's opponent is, other than knowing from dartsdatabase that he played the World Cup in 2016, and he took a leg off Ronny Huybrechts. Next...

Temple/Richardson - Terry has not had the best of times on the tour this year by any metric, and it's the first time he's qualified this season. Richardson's been almost as bad, as such the model reckons we should bet Temple - I'll do it small, 0.1u Temple 11/4 if only because he's done so little of note it's a bit hard to read. Hard to think of a reason to watch this one without having at least some small funking power going on.

van Duijvenbode/Mansell - This is rated as a flip, and Mansell's won an event this year while van Duijvenbode was close to leading the PDC in first round bricks, so it seems odd until the projections say that DVD should win this nearly 60% of the time. I'm passing on that as it just seems wrong to bet here.

Meulenkamp/Schindler - Another flip! Seems a similar edge to the previous game over year long stats in favour of Martin, but Ron's been playing a bit better of late so I'm alright in avoiding this one.

Pietreczko/Searle - Random domestic qualifier time, I have no idea who he is, he's probably really, really poor and Searle's in a bit of form - 0.5u Searle 2/9, if only because Ricardo beat nobody of note and has 50 euros lifetime winnings, and that was all in Luxembourg.

Lynn/Murschell - This is shaping up to be a fairly mundane afternoon session to the point where I'm glad I'm at work for it, Lynn has stung me before this year with a win from nowhere, but the line's such here that Dawson doesn't have enough to be favoured more than it at all, so that's a nice easy avoid.

Plooy/West - We saw Plooy a few times on the European Tour last year, but he went 0-5, and Steve West isn't the sort of player you want to face when making your first appearance of the season. He wasn't close in Q-School at all, did the first Challenge Tour weekend and won nothing, and won £250 in the UK Open qualifiers, so I'm thinking this will be one sided - that said, Plooy has enough in his game that 2/9 on West doesn't seem value, more that it's a correct line.

Justicia/Klaasen - Important one for Jelle in the race for the majors, after getting his card and having a good couple of early runs Perales has missed quite a lot of events, so while the projections indicate he should win this around 40% of the time, I'm inclined not to bet on him given that Jelle should be really up for this one given the importance of the match.

Caris/Henderson - Oh Magnus, you'll never retire it seems, he's not managed to qualify for any of these so far this year (Labanauskas being an added hindrance in a one spot qualification zone does that to you), so it's hard to say how he'll do. I think that Henderson might be value at 1/3, but without any good recent read it's hard to suggest a thing.

Thornton/Noppert - Danny's actually live to make the Grand Prix - if he can get through Thornton and Wattimena, he'd be in the last spot as long as neither Klaasen or Anderson gets a win, so that has to focus the mind. Thornton's on a good run of qualifying for these, but has left it a bit too late for it to count to most things, the market slightly favours Noppert as does the model, so let's move on.

Smith/Anderson - Huge, huge game for Kyle, who is just outside the Dublin spots and must win at least this game and then hope for permutations to work for him if he does nothing else, Ross Smith isn't the ideal draw (with Cullen to follow), and the line's underrating him almost enough to bet, I'm thinking it should be around a 5/3 line rather than 11/5, but Kyle should be keyed in and didn't exactly play badly last weekend until the wheels came off in his last game.

Jenkins/Dennant - Dennant, after doing awfully at Q-School, has made less than a grand from twelve Challenge Tour events this season, but managed to get into the last Players Championship event where he took three legs off Keegan Brown - too little data to say how he'll do against Terry, it should be safe to bet the Bull, what the heck, 0.25u Jenkins 5/11, I can't see how Matthew is really going to compete here.

Joyce/Clemens - Now this is a tasty one, two players with a fantastic floor record, Gabriel's been surprisingly bad in qualifying on the Euro Tour, while Joyce took a bit of time to get it but has been exclusively win on Friday then lose to the seed. Should be a good game to watch out for - the market has Joyce as the tiny favourite, but I'm liking Gabriel here - the model thinks he's the favourite, and up in the high fifties, he's in his home country as well so let's punt on 0.25u Clemens 5/4.

Wilson/Huckvale - James should quite comfortably keep up his good recent form here, Huckvale's not bad but Wilson's a good couple of tiers ahead here - the 1/3 line looks perfectly fair so no interest from me here.

Marijanovic/Dekker - Always going to be a case of which Dekker turns up. The line's 8/13 Dekker, which looks close to right, I've got him up in the high fifties which might point to tiny value on Marijanovic, but he's bricked the last few events while Jan's had a couple of OK runs of late so I'll pass on it.

Beaton/van der Voort - Final game, it should be a fun one to watch, neither messes about, surprised to see Vincent favoured but he has had a few decent outings this season - that said, Steve is favoured by the model and he made a quarter in the last Pro Tour, so let's go 0.25u Beaton 6/5.

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