Saturday, 15 September 2018

Riesa round 2

Huge win yesterday for Klaasen - not only was it 6-0 (although Perales didn't offer a great deal of resistance), it's bumped him over Keegan Brown for Dublin, while a win over White today (good luck with that) would make him absolutely safe by popping him above Meulenkamp, it's still the case that Noppert, himself one with a 6-0 win, could get by him with a quarter final run. With Wattimena up, anything could happen. Of the bets, Temple was more of a "bet against Richardson at those odds regardless of opponent" and James did enough decent legs, fair enough, although Temple had darts to make it 3-3 and 4-4, so it could have been. Searle was comfortable enough, not winning a leg in fifteen darts, but the other guy did OK I guess, Jenkins and Beaton got home (Beaton a bit fortunately I guess), while Joyce/Clemens (how these are both greyfaces on dartsdata when Dennant has a face I don't know) was a high quality encounter decided only by the bull, which we lost. Overall, the Beaton win put us up fairly small, so let's move on to today:

Huybrechts/Schindler - Should be a fairly even matchup to start featuring a home nation player (Riesa isn't actually that far from Berlin compared to other venues so it's closest enough to Martin's back yard) - such is the decline in Kim's reputation (or improvement of Schindler) that the market has it 60/40 Kim. Which I think is wrong - the model's showing Schindler as a small 55% favourite, and he's even more consistent, so 0.25u Schindler 13/10 straight off the bat.

Webster/Mansell - Mickey rolled DvD 6-0, but despite having a win on tour and a great first round game, the market's still only giving him a bit more than a one in three shot to get past Darren, such is the level of Webster's play. The line looks really close to accurate - Mansell's a very live dog but not quite live enough that we can consider a bet - 37% getting 7/4 is nothing really.

King/West - Two players around the cutoff for seedings in these, the market being unable to separate the two, making King a tiny favourite against West, who only barely beat Plooy yesterday in a deciding leg. It's a line that I agree with - getting King as a 54/46 favourite, it's 10/11 King, this could easily be decided by who wins the bull, it's that tight.

Bunting/Lynn - Barry got through Murschell fairly comfortably, but Bunting's an entirely different level - if Stephen turns up, which continues to be a question unfortunately for the Bullet. The line is thinking that Stephen should be a big favourite, and the model agrees - if the line was ever so slightly closer then I'd say fire on Stephen, but I'm only getting him at 76%, whereas 4/11 is saying that he's a 73% shot. If you want to stick him in an acca, it can't be bad, but I can't recommend a bet of any substance here.

Price/Henderson - Gerwyn's hanging around in the seeds despite it seemingly being quite a while since he's won anything or made a big run, whereas Henderson's on the edge of the seeds and is right up in the conversation for the best player that's not won a PDC event yet. He's in the 8/9 seed pod, so if Searle shocks the world against Wright (or Huybrechts/Schindler), then who knows? Market thinks it's 60/40, which is what the model's thinking for this one, give or take a percentage point or two, so no bets here.

Clayton/Lennon - Steve got through Kovacs easily enough, although he'd have liked to have closed out the whitewash having got to a 5-0 lead. Clayton's struggled somewhat since winning his European Tour event, and the market has adjusted to this, making it a 10/11 Clayton line, I think it should be the other way around but it's tight enough that I can't recommend a bet, like the King/West game this could come down to the bull. That said, if you filter down after Clayton won his event, Lennon reaches up to a 56% favourite... what the heck, Steve played well yesterday so 0.25u Lennon 11/10.

Chisnall/Richardson - Chizzy's got a decent draw here, but he's low enough in the seeds now that he'd play White tomorrow, James we talked about above, four from six legs in fifteen darts or less is a decent performance, but he's going to need to do that again against Dave, where he's a huge underdog. They're equally inconsistent, but I'm thinking this should be a 1/5 game, rather than the 0.5u Chisnall 2/7 line that we're actually being offered.

Wattimena/Noppert - Last game of the afternoon session, it's a Dutch derby with huge implications for Danny, and the market can't separate the two. I can barely separate them either, I think Noppie has the tiniest of edges, the market gives Noppie the tiniest of edges, 10/11 is exactly what my projections would call the line. Let's move on...

White/Klaasen - Jelle has probably done enough this weekend that the pressure will now be off, but against Ian it's going to need a bit more than having no pressure. Maybe a Noppert win will put it back on? European Tour winner Ian White (god that feels good to write) is a big favourite, I'm getting him winning more than three out of four trials, so 0.5u White 4/9 looks automatic.

Whitlock/Wilson - Intriguing matchup, Whitlock's shown spurts of form despite tinkering with his darts almost as much as Peter Wright has, while Wilson's been knocking on the door for a few months now, the line's giving Whitlock the edge, but not a big edge, only in the mid 50's. I've actually got Wilson as having a small edge, so 0.25u Wilson 13/10, why not.

Hopp/Beaton - Normally the seeds would be the other way around in this one, but Hopp on home soil is taking advantage of that European Tour win to get a free pass to this round against Beaton, who only just got past a resurgent van der Voort. This should be close, the bookies cannot separate them (I can't remember the last time there's been so many coinflips), but the model continues to be unconvinced with Hopp, thinking he has less than a 40% chance. Could come down to how drunk the German fans are, but 0.25u Beaton 11/10.

Cullen/Smith - Joe blew the best chance he'll have for years to make a final last weekend, and faces up against Ross Smith, who's been playing good stuff for a while now and was also knocking around on the final day last weekend. Market has this at 2/1, and this continues to underrate Smith - I thought they might have noticed by now, but I'm getting him over 40% so if they keep dangling these out I'll keep stabbing at them, 0.25u Smith 2/1.

Lewis/Jenkins - Is it really four years ago that this was a major final? Where Jenkins got completely owned? I think it was. Terry had no real issues winning 6-2 over Dennant, but Adie right now is a completely different ask, the line's 3/1 and I think that's worth a small stab - 0.1u Jenkins 3/1. It's only a tenth of a unit because Terry didn't throw a single fifteen darter yesterday - I'd like to have seen that, as he'll probably need to do it today several times to get home. With the model thinking this is nearer a 2/1 line we still need to bet, but I'm pulling it in. It's not like we've won any of the last three times we've tipped Adie to lose as a solid favourite.

Suljovic/Joyce - Ryan got through a tough tie with Clemens, holding serve being just enough to edge it out 6-5, and now faces Mensur, who should be rested up having taken last weekend off. The market really, really loves Mensur - apart from Wright next he's the biggest favourite of the round, I mean they are the 1 and 2 seeds to be fair, but regular readers will know that Joyce is really, really good. The model thinks he wins this more than one time in three. We know the model doesn't really like Suljovic and he still remains with a higher losing average than winning average over what's now an eight month sample (it's only half a point now). We tried this bet in Denmark at 3/1 and it ended 6-1 Mensur, but 0.25u Joyce 4/1, Suljovic really doesn't win this 80% of the time.

Wright/Searle - Ryan wasn't great in round one, but got through, and against the number 1 seed he's a 5/1 dog. Wright's rightly the favourite here to lift the title (although Suljovic has a higher overall points per turn), but the question is whether Searle can up his game from yesterday a lot to where it was at when he reached a Pro Tour final recently. Model is thinking he's got more than a 30% shot so 0.1u Searle 5/1, this may lose easily but it looks value.

Gurney/Marijanovic - Daryl's still yet to win one of these, or an event full stop this year, and he'd better think about it soon as he's not qualified for the Slam at this stage and really wouldn't want to have to go through qualifiers. Robert's looked good on occasions and put in a respectable performance to overcome Dekker late yesterday, but probably lacks the power to get past Daryl today - I'm thinking he's got about a 25% chance and he's around 3/1, so no bets here.

Should be a tight, entertaining set of games after a mediocre day one, let's go!

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