Sunday 2 September 2018

Regression to the mean - Hildesheim day 3 bets

Bit annoying how these past two days have gone, day one hitting everything and day two nearly getting shut out but for James Wilson nicking the decider to leave us down nearly a unit on the day. It's silly thinking really, given it's all one long game and over the tournament as a whole we're still up a unit, but then again, if Kyle Anderson hits either of the match darts he had to beat Rob Cross, we're even for the day. We're also nearly even if Mervyn King could have held from a 4-2 lead with the darts, heck, it only needed an 18 darter to win the decider and he didn't even get a shot at a double, such was the comedy scoring in that last leg. Still, let's look at today's lineups and briefly review what players did yesterday to get there:

Cross v Rasztovits - As mentioned above, Cross was perhaps a bit fortunate, but was still outstanding, every leg won in fifteen or less with two in twelve or less, and over 100 when losing legs, it looks like Rob is peaking nicely at the right time (coupled with the World Series win). Michael took out Simon Whitlock 6-3 with a fairly professional performance, a couple of legs he could have tightened up but Whitlock gave him enough to go at in the end. Cross is understandably a large favourite, I'm thinking around 85% - that's close enough to where the line is that there's no value on either side, but if you want to banker Cross then it can't be too bad.

Jenkins v Chisnall - Dave was amazing yesterday, social media was drooling about averages as they do, but a 6-0 rolling with four of the legs in twelve darts or better is very, very good no matter how you look at it. Terry edged out Ian White in a decider, one of those games where we should have trusted the model and gone for it, that Jenkins came from an early 2-0 and 4-2 hole is a good sign. Market thinks this is 75/25, the model gives a little bit more chance to Terry than that, but it's only saying that 5/2 would be a fair price rather than 3/1 and with Dave playing as he did yesterday I'm fine with leaving this one alone.

Suljovic v Webster - Mensur had little trouble with Andrew Gilding, cruising into a 4-0 lead and then having one bad leg to let Gilding get a break back, but comfortably getting home 6-2 with a solid overall display. Webster won by the same score against Ricky Evans, perhaps not playing quite as well as Suljovic did though. The market has this in the region of 70/30 which is a bit too one sided really, Webster is at 45% in the model, and even if you take into account the model working off won legs and Mensur still (even after the Matchplay) performing better in terms of points per turn on losing legs than winning legs, I'm not sure you can take 15% off as a result of that. Anyone watching darts recently will tell you Webster can easily nick this more than one time in three, so 0.25u Webster 9/4.

Wilson v Thornton - Two qualifiers face off, Wilson edging Clayton as mentioned in the opening piece, while Robert took out James Wade, mainly due to Wade not capitalising on golden chances to break each of Thornton's first two legs on throw, which would have made it 4-1 Wade. Oh well. Wilson at this stage seems the much better player, the model giving him two wins out of every three and being a full three points higher than Thornton on overall points per turn, that the market has this close to evens seems plain wrong, 0.25u Wilson 10/11.

Smith v Meulenkamp - Ron hit some very high numbers against Bunting to win by the odd leg in eleven, opening with a four visit kill and then winning the last two legs after Bunting was able to get a 5-4 lead. Smith eased past Ratajski, who didn't really show, not that he could do anything with Smith hitting four very good legs in a row after a dodgy opener to take a 5-0 lead. Ron has these weekends in Europe where it just clicks and he looks close to unbeatable, but Smith is a tough out, the market has him at 5/2 and if anything it seems like a Smith bet, with the model giving him north of 75% win chances, but there's no real significant edge given Ron's looking alright this weekend.

Gurney v Lewis - This is a statement game for Adie, the sorts of games that he's needing to win to show that he belongs back amongst the world's elite - Gurney looked in good nick against Darren Johnson, getting a break to start and end a 6-3 win with all but one leg in fifteen darts or less, while Lewis needed every leg to beat Mervyn King, coming from 4-2 down and breaking in the decider to get home. Lewis appeared unconvincing on the numbers and it's hard to see why he is installed as the favourite here. The model gives it very close though, and if we take a more recent sample than normal, it does project Lewis in the high fifties to take it. I'm just going to avoid this one.

Cullen v Dekker - Joe overcame Josh Payne with an alright display, getting there 6-4 by breaking in the tenth leg to counter Payne breaking in the ninth to get it back on throw. Dekker won by the same score against Gerwyn Price, running the last two legs from 4-4 with neither player really being able to hold their throw with any consistency. The market understandably favours Cullen, and I agree with that analysis - perhaps it could be trimmed to 4/7 Cullen rather than 1/2 with the win chance being slightly below 65%, but there's nothing really here to go at.

van Gerwen v Schindler - Michael whitewashed Reyes who offered very little really, the only two legs not within fifteen darts being Michael's first two holds of throw, but when he breaks Reyes twice in twelve or less it's hard to exploit it really. Schindler took out Steve Beaton 6-2, apart from the last leg where he won in twelve darts with a completely unnecessary 164 out, it was fairly poor stuff again, Beaton averaging south of 80 putting Martin under zero pressure. The overall stats give Schindler around a 1 in 5 out, but that seems way too generous given how the two players have gone this weekend.

So just the two bets today. Should be back before the quarters.

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