Sunday 30 September 2018

Grand Prix bets

Now the moment we've all been waiting for, but first, the new FRH rankings following the Players Championship double header - standard top 20 as normal, plus the rest of the Grand Prix field. Note this includes a mincash for the Grand Prix, but it does not affect the top 20 order at all:

1 Michael van Gerwen
2 Rob Cross
3 Peter Wright
4 Gary Anderson
5 Daryl Gurney
6 Mensur Suljovic
7 Phil Taylor
8 Ian White
9 Simon Whitlock
10 Michael Smith
11 Gerwyn Price
12 Darren Webster
13 Dave Chisnall
14 Jonny Clayton (UP 1)
15 James Wade (DOWN 1)
16 Joe Cullen
17 Adrian Lewis
18 Mervyn King
19 Stephen Bunting
20 Steve West (NEW)
21 John Henderson
22 Kim Huybrechts
23 Steve Beaton
24 Raymond van Barneveld
28 James Wilson
29 Jermaine Wattimena
31 Jeffrey de Zwaan
32 Max Hopp
35 Steve Lennon
44 Danny Noppert
47 Ricky Evans
49 Ron Meulenkamp
55 Josh Payne

With yesterday's stats in the master computer, let's look at the games - the numbers in brackets indicate a player's chance to win a set using the normal formula. It is NOT adjusted to take account of the double in format, and as I can't see that anyone posted any figures (DartConnect seemingly doesn't help on this either), we'll just have to think about what we know off the top of our heads.

de Zwaan (66.73) v Huybrechts (47.34) - This honestly looks a bit more one sided than the market suggests. Kim has hit a little bit of form of recent, with two quarter finals this month, but they're seemingly the exception rather than the rule. Chucking the set winning chances against each other and assuming they win the bull equally I'm thinking Jeffrey's up near 65%, so 0.25u de Zwaan 8/11 looks decent.

Meulenkamp (50.43) v Cullen (63.14) - This is, to the best of my knowledge, the first major that Ron's qualified for that's got a 32 man field - if he made the European Championship at some point then I could be wrong, but I'm fairly sure it's at least the first that just goes off the Pro Tour, so it's a question of whether he belongs at this level that's being asked. Cullen certainly does and is looking more and more comfortable on the stage, I think the line is close to right, it's projecting Ron at around 40% so 13/8 may have a bit of value if you think he brings his A-game to the stage.

Webster (59.57) v Bunting (54.21) - Should be pretty close as I've been saying all along, the market is giving Webster a tiny edge, this looks fine, I'm seeing this as around a 55/45 Webster game if not tighter, so I'm avoiding this one as well.

Evans (54.70) v van Barneveld (59.38) - Time for Ricky to step up from his European Tour final and bring his game to a major stage, it's certainly one of the biggest names in the sport he's drawn and he has the class is permanent ability to turn it on, but Evans is playing very well and Barney was not convincing these past couple of days, I'm seeing this as a similar line to the game above, with Barney as the favourite but nowhere near as much as the line is suggesting. 0.25u Evans 23/10, we need more Baby Shark in our lives.

Chisnall (73.65) v Hopp (39.00) - Hopp's now got the floor title to go with the European Tour title, it's time to do something serious in a major event. Chisnall in a double in format is not the worst draw he could get, but, as I alluded to in a series of posts a few months ago, scoring is everything and Chisnall has that in abundance, Hopp is going to need to come flying out of the traps and hope that Chisnall has a spate of missed doubles, not having the 110+ average he did on the Euro Tour recently. This line seems way, way off based on Hopp's win, 0.5u Chisnall 8/13, even if we say that it's a tighter game than the model suggests because of the format and because the model seemingly hates Hopp, I'm getting Dave winning three times in four. That'd need one hell of an adjustment and a serious flaw in the model for it to be not a Chisnall bet.

Gurney (64.65) v Henderson (49.73) - Your defence starts here. Henderson likes this venue as well, Henderson likes playing Gurney, so while there were certainly tougher draws for Daryl this isn't a lay-up by any stretch of the imagination. The line's about 2-1 in favour of Gurney, whereas I'm seeing things a little bit tighter, giving Hendo about 5% more chances than the market suggests. Every game was fairly tight that he had this weekend so he may well be hitting key shots at key times, which is important for this format, while Gurney wasn't bad the weekend before he's lost a couple of games in Dublin these past two days he really shouldn't have. 0.25u Henderson 2/1, defending champs going out in round one is not unprecedented and strange things happen in this event all the time.

van Gerwen (76.40) v Lennon (36.40) - Speaking of strange things happening, can Lennon pull off the upset? These past twelve months have all been about him getting stage experience and asking whether he's got a top 32 game. It's getting there, and he's looked respectable against MvG in the past. The line is 6/1, and I see Lennon as having slightly over a 20% shot at this. This doesn't include any external factors (the game's in Ireland), so let's go with it - 0.1u Lennon 6/1, van Gerwen has been playing well but this weekend he's had a bad game, a good game where he lost to someone around Lennon's level, so who knows? Lennon's also had a four twelve darter game on the floor this weekend, produce something of that level and it doesn't matter what the world number one does.

Anderson (69.75) v Clayton (43.67) - Ando didn't play yesterday but it took van Gerwen to beat him on Friday, while Clayton continues to lose games he really should win. Over year long stats he may have a bit of a better chance than the line suggests (the model quickly spitting out a 30% line), but recently? I'm not having any of it and am inclined to say that the market looks to be on the money here.

Wattimena (51.38) v King (62.60) - Jermaine's looked solid this weekend, only losing out 6-5 twice after getting out of his board both times. King didn't have too great a time results wise, but wasn't playing badly, and is probably playing just about well enough that he deserves to be the favourite. The model is saying bet King, but I've just got a feeling this'll be close enough that it's one that goes the distance. Kind of half tempted to bet King as I do seem to recall he's a decent bull hitter, and it may only be decided by that one throw before the game.

Payne (45.18) v White (68.95) - Much like Hopp really - time for Payne, now that he's got a second title, to do something on the stage and take things up a gear. It's a bad draw obviously, White's made yet another final and is looking as good as ever, model is thinking around a 2-1 game, the line looks absolutely perfect so no bet here.

Noppert (46.31) v Price (67.33) - Got to be peak Danny right now, his confidence must be through the roof. He's won a title at a new level yesterday, then again, so did Gerwyn a couple of weekends previously. As mentioned in the previous post, Gerwyn was playing better than Danny over the past two days despite Noppert claiming a title, I think he's got a bit more of a chance than the market suggests but it's not quite enough to get a bet over the line, factor in that Noppert must be fearing nobody right now and a no bet seems fine with me.

Wright (67.41) v West (45.99) - Good weekend for Steve with a pair of board wins, if he'd have got past Gilding on the Friday he could easily have claimed his first title. Peter wasn't quite so hot with a couple of surprise exits, and this is almost a decent betting opportunity based on that. West's 5/2, and I have his win chance at 34%, so around 2/1 would be a fairer line. If money comes in on Snakebite and moves the line then I'd say jump all over West, 11/4 or even 3/1 would be sound bets, but not at this stage.

Cross (69.84) v Beaton (43.99) - Cross, despite a weekend that is best described as "meh", should have enough here. The line is similar to the Wright line, except Cross is favoured a bit more. As you might expect with the numbers listed, I've got Beaton as a bit further down on chances than West, at just above 30%. 14/5 might be worth a small nibble if you think Beaton can repeat his upset from last year, but you would think Cross would have made the relevant adjustments and will want to avenge that loss, so I'll avoid this one as well.

Suljovic (61.59) v Wade (53.30) - Burton was saying on the podcast this week that he thinks whoever wins this can make the final - that seems a little bit excessive, particularly for Wade, but they're both doing alright this year and I think it's nearly a Wade bet - I'm projecting safely into the 40's for win chances and the line at 8/5 is probably worth a look, but there's a few things going on here. The model always hates Suljovic, while he now finally averages more when winning than when losing, it's probably still underrating him, and his doubling rate should close this out to being a no bet. This could be close and go to a deciding set, and it's not like Suljovic is bad at winning the bull.

Whitlock (57.50) v Wilson (56.78) - Boy, aren't those numbers close to each other. This is basically even money. So therefore 0.25u Wilson 6/4. He's made yet another semi final on Friday, beating two world champions along the way and only going out to the eventual winner. He played Whitlock in Riesa and that went to a deciding leg. Whitlock really didn't convince this weekend so this looks to be a very solid opportunity for Lethal Biscuit to come through in a favourable play.

Smith (66.75) v Lewis (47.43) - Lewis has been threatening to win something for a bit now - going QF/QF/QF/last 16 in the last four tournaments he's played, but outside of the seeds he's got the worst possible draw. Michael Smith, after winning in Shanghai, really hasn't hit the heights he was doing earlier in the season, and will want to rectify that in this one. The market has this very even, and while Smith's form isn't great, I don't see why - 0.25u Smith 10/11, it really just needs tops to click and this could be over quickly.

And that's a wrap. I may post something unrelated later today given Cardiff/Burnley is as un-super a Sunday as it gets.

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