Sunday 16 September 2018

European Tour 12 is an enormous mess

That was the state of my insides at this time last year after copious amounts of beer at the venue, but as far as the darts goes, this is it:

Yep, nobody's even got a 20% shot at winning the whole thing. That's quite bizarre, but nobody apart from Richardson is drawing close to dead at all. Whitlock's only really the favourite per the model at this stage because he has by far the easiest (on paper) draw at this point in time - hard to say what'd happen at the semi final stage, but if the favourites did win then you would expect all of them to move ahead of Whitlock (except for Webster, who's actually projecting as a tiny dog against Whitlock).

I don't actually fancy any bets. James has done well enough so far this tournament that despite Whitlock rolling off six fifteen dart or better legs against Beaton, he may be outperforming enough of late to nullify the season long edge indicated in the chart. 10/21 is thinking he wins about 68% of the time, so we don't need to knock off much edge for it to be a no bet. Webster's line is 8/11 which is more or less where we expected it to be, West's actually tempting at 21/10, but we keep backing against Adie and Adie keeps doing us over, so maybe we should hold off on this one - it's not as if West really repeated what he did yesterday and Clayton did miss multiple match darts. Finally Gezzy's coming in at 4/6 against 6/4 Searle, that's probably a bit too favoured in the way of the name player (who was another to survive match darts), but there's really not enough there.

Which leaves us down for the tournament. Although as it's one hundredth of a unit I don't think I'll be losing any sleep over it.

As I've chucked up chances to win the whole thing, you could actually look at the outright markets. Adie and Whitlock are both too short, Price at 6's might be worth a punt, Noppert's too short, Webster at 9's could be the each way bet, West at 12's is marginal, Searle at 14's I think you just bet the match markets, while Richardson I'm not touching with a barge pole.

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