Sunday 16 September 2018

Wright out? Searley you can't be serious - Riesa round 3

Well, it's nice to see a 5/1 punt come in. It'd be nicer to see the 4/1 punt on Joyce come in given that was a larger bet, frustratingly close to miss bull for the match (and then fail to hold in fifteen in the decider which would have done fine as well, Mensur only getting one dart at double 14 for the match but that's roughly how many he needs on average).

Searle saved what was otherwise a fairly poor bag - Chizzy not doing it against Richardson was the main hurt, but we had Lennon lose a decider, Wilson lose a decider (having eighteen darts in it and not getting one for the match), fortunately Beaton (albeit in a decider - again) and Schindler did the business and White was comfortable enough to make the overall damage for the tournament a tenth of a unit. If I hadn't gone for that Jenkins punt (that went well) it'd be bang on break even.

As an aside, I want to look at 124 at some point - was going to tie that up to the Joyce game but he was actually trying to take out 130, oops. If you hit the treble first dart, and really need to go out, is it the right thing to go for treble 14? I'm not talking in terms of hitting the big number to be sure of getting a punt at the bull - I'm talking in terms of moving really far outside and aiming for a very specific line whereby you try to get the double, but stay inside at all costs, something like this:

Aiming for a line primarily is something that players should be good at - it's called going for treble 20. It looks like you've got a lot more leeway in terms of height than if you go for treble, and if you do stray into double, then double 18 works a lot better than the double 11 you'd leave if you went for treble. It's probably something that'd need a bunch of figures from pro level players to see what works and what doesn't. Anyone want to send some data?

Today, Mensur is now the favourite, but is in the White half of the draw with Whitlock, Cullen and Webster all in play, his game against Noppert where Noppert must win to make Dublin is no gimmie either. Heck, Beaton's lived a charmed life, what's to say he can't go on a run? In the other half, with Wright gone it's opened up - Gurney and Lewis are the main guns, but Clayton's won before, West has the game to do so, Gurney and Lewis' opponents are Bunting and Price which won't be easy, then we've got Searle against Schindler. So, the projections:

White/Richardson - James hasn't done too bad, but the tests keep getting stronger (White's clearly a stronger test than Chisnall at this stage regardless of what the rankings say) - White was comfortable against Klaasen, Richardson was solid enough, but this is a hard one - 0.5u White 1/3, this should be a 1/5 game. Where did I hear that before?

Whitlock/Beaton - The model continues to love Beaton, who's come through two last leg deciders to get this far - Beaton's actually averaging higher per turn this season than Whitlock is, although the model gives Whitlock the edge as his points per turn when winning is higher than Steve's (although this means that Steve's scoring more when losing, consistency counts). I like this price a lot, although like many yesterday this could come down to the bull, and Whitlock likes a bull - 0.25u Beaton 15/8.

Cullen/Webster - Cullen overcame Smith yesterday despite Smith averaging 98, pinning six doubles from ten to shut him out at key moments. Webster defeated Mansell in a sloppy game where neither averaged 90, with Webster missing an unbelievable 24 darts at double - fortunately most of those didn't cost him, coming in legs where Mickey couldn't score. The model calls this right down the wire - Cullen being a favourite 50.03% to 49.97%. 0.25u Webster 6/4 as a result.

Suljovic/Noppert - I've mentioned already what a key game this is for Danny, it's effectively a £6k match. Suljovic now has some pressure of being the favourite to win this, but he should be used to that at this stage. Mensur was very solid yesterday, while in the first two games Danny's not really got quite enough scoring to really threaten, although he has been mostly tidy barring a couple of bad legs against Thornton where it didn't really matter. Noppie looks live and should raise his game knowing what's on the line, 0.1u Noppert 10/3, reducing as while the model gives Danny more than a one in three shot, it's probably not quite that high based on consistency and there's also the possibility that Noppert realises what he might do and cracks. He doesn't seem like the guy that will, but you never know.

Clayton/West - On to the second half and West was brutal in destroying Mervyn King, probably the performance of the round - averages count for nothing but when they're three figures and the second figure isn't a zero then you have to be impressed. Clayton edged Lennon having come from a 4-2 deficit, and the game is that tight that it's evens pick your man. No bet here - model is thinking that it's a Clayton game, but it's only 53%, and if West plays half as good as he did yesterday then I don't see how Jonny can compete.

Lewis/Bunting - Two former world champions collide, Lewis bagelling a disappointing Jenkins while Bunting hit the afterburners with three tidy legs after the occasionally dangerous Barry Lynn had split the first six legs with him. It's a huge opportunity for Lewis to go deep, but Stephen is no automatic out, his overall points per turn are over 90 this season compared to Lewis who's nearly at 92, the model is thinking it's a 60/40 split which, combining Bunting's performance and the odds we're getting points to 0.25u Bunting 5/2.

Gurney/Price - I was sure that these had played recently in Europe, so I checked the head to head and they never have, oops. That said, Gurney does have a pretty miserable 1-6 record against the Iceman, along with a 6-6 Premier League draw earlier in the year, Price also winning in the Masters a couple of weeks earlier - the two haven't met in a ranked game this year. The market is putting this out at around 60/40 in favour of Daryl, which sounded about right in my head but the model is giving Price better chances than that - 48%, which makes 6/4 look tempting. Both players won their legs yesterday in exactly the same fashion, making me think their form is similar - 0.25u Price 6/4.

Searle/Schindler - Our final game features two unseeded players who knocked out Peter Wright with a very good display, and Kim Huybrechts respectively. Schindler didn't play that great against Kim, only getting two legs won in fifteen darts (needing a 158 out in one of them), but he didn't need to as Huybrechts, one twelve darter from nowhere aside, just couldn't score. Searle's looking a lot more secure of recent for worlds qualification but every bit still counts, while Schindler will surely see this as a chance to make a deepest run yet on home soil for a German outside of the Hopp win. The line can't split them and neither can I, so no bet here.

Edit - in my drunken idiocy yesterday, I forgot to load the new data from yesterday into the master computer. It doesn't affect any bets, as a six leg sample compared to 400, 500, 600+ legs already in there isn't going to make much of a difference, but it did give Cullen an extra 0.5% so it wasn't quite as close as I made out. Unlike the Searle game, which is now exactly 50/50, which is odd given they have somewhat different distribution of killing speed, Schindler being better finishing within twelve and eighteen darts by a couple of percentage points, but Searle finishes within fifteen darts 3% more often. Very odd.

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