Saturday 8 September 2018

I'm not dead yet

In the middle of a house move, so the master computer was out of commission before the start of the latest European Tour event. Was surprising to see that five of the six Dutch qualifiers went out given that none of them can be described as mugs, have a wild guess which one I bet against in the only casual bet I had yesterday...

A few other surprising results. Given James Wilson's form I thought he'd have been able to handle Reyes, but it looks like Cristo didn't play too badly so I'll let him off, when the Spaniard plays well everyone needs to watch out. Thornton losing to Monk was a bit of an odd one, I'd have thought Marijanovic would have taken out Rowby-John, but Rodriguez was hitting some good stuff so credit to him for that. Also maybe a bit of a surprise that Painter was able to defeat van der Voort, but it's 6-5 so we'll call it a draw.

Couple of things announced before I look at day 2 bets - they've announced the 2019 calendar, and it sucks. This is primarily related to the UK Open changes, which are terrible as far as I'm concerned - letting every single player in with a tour card seems fine, it's not that much of an expansion and replacing the UK Open qualifiers (which were a huge pain in the arse for the players given their length, and even more of a pain to collate data for because of the sheer size) with additional Players Championship events seems fine as a result, but halving the number of pub qualifiers is a huge retrograde step, and giving those spots to players from the Challenge Tour seems bad, particularly given at least the top few are probably going to get tour cards anyway, either by winning it (Barnard etc) or winning through Q-School. It now has the feel of the Players Championship Finals on steroids, which I don't like. That they're played in the same place in the middle of nowhere doesn't help, bring back Bolton (if only because it's less than an hour's drive from me).

Fortunately they've said that the Challenge Tour spots are from the 2018 order of merit. Ignoring that Barnard etc will get a card and not need one of the spots, I was worried that they'd have done it the same way they top up from the list for the Players Championship, which would have made the first Challenge Tour weekend the most important event for anyone on any PDC circuit - not only would you have got into the UK Open, you also get into a bunch of the Players Championship events if you bink one. After the first Challenge Tour weekend, there's fourteen Players Championship events before the Challenge Tour order of merit can even change. That's way too many. Surely they could have swapped Challenge Tour 5-8 with, say, Players Championship 7-8 so there can be a bit more churn. Oh well, they have their reasons I guess, and I suppose the Challenge Tour players that are up there knowing with a bit of confidence that they can book seven weekends/midweeks off has its benefits.

So, today's games, interestingly the PDC home page is calling this the German Darts Championship, that'll go down well:

West/Evans - Seems really, really close to an Evans bet, 7/5 is decent, I think it should be a bit nearer 5/4, but with West being promoted to the #16 seed, making this a virtual final, I think West will bring his A-game which Evans shouldn't be able to compete with.

King/Labanauskas - Mervyn's coming in as around a 60/40 favourite, which looks maybe a little bit short, I'm getting him winning nearly two in three, which makes 8/13 look like there may be possible value. Darius is dangerous though, putting out someone who scored the same number of legs as King against a common opponent last weekend (Alcinas v Lewis), so let's keep looking further.

Chisnall/Rodriguez - This should be pretty comfortable for Dave, he's 3/10 and I've got him winning around 73% of the time. 27% for Rowby would be tempting if there wasn't a huge amount of vig on the line given his performance yesterday, but a 13/5 best price isn't of interest.

Cullen/Bates - Barrie dealt with Klaasen, but Cullen on the European Tour is different gravy. The market is saying 80/20, the model thinks that Bates has a bit more chance than that, but the model considers all games and Cullen's certainly been playing better on the stage than the floor this year, so any edge on a Bates bet is likely nullified based on that. Bates only averaged 86 yesterday anyway which isn't really threatening.

Webster/Payne - Half chance for Payne to make a breakthrough at the European level perhaps? van Duijvenbode held his own for a few legs before Josh pulled away, Webster will keep going throughout and this may go all eleven legs. 7/5 is pretty tempting, this is looking very similar to the West/Evans game in terms of analysis, but will pass. Payne's under a bit of pressure to win this to try to get into the Dortmund picture and it may show.

Price/Johnson - Darren took out M√ľnch in a game that was maybe a bit closer than it should have been, Price has been doing alright since the Matchplay so I'm reducing the amount I consider the injury or otherwise now, Gerwyn's 2/5, if it was a bit closer I'd fire but I'm thinking a fair line is only 1/3.

Bunting/de Graaf - Jeffrey edged Nicholson to keep the Dutch flag flying here, Bunting is nearly as up and down as de Graaf is, I don't think there's a single player on tour that swings from brilliance to nails as much as Jeffrey. I think we can bet this one - I'm getting de Graaf in the low to mid 40% range here and he's 2/1, that he took out Nicholson who's been playing good stuff is enough of an indicator that we can see the good de Graaf that'll be needed - 0.25u de Graaf 2/1.

Lewis/Jones - Wayne surprisingly rolled de Zwaan, which seemed to be Jeffrey losing more than Wayne winning, Adie's in the seeds and a hot favourite, too hot for me - 0.25u Jones 7/2, if he can beat de Zwaan he has no reason to fear Lewis, I'm thinking that Lewis wins this nearly 70% of the time but that's not enough to not bet on Jones.

Hopp/Smith - Into the evening session and Max Hopp is finally a seed. Smith easily handled the talented youngster Rusty Jake Rodriguez yesterday, he's had his moments on tour and I've bet him a couple of times, and this is one of them. This line looks the wrong way around - 0.25u Smith 11/8, I know the model underrates Hopp, but Smith's equally tight in the difference between winning and losing average. As a bonus, the game's not even in Germany.

White/Monk - Arron's got another tough game after beating a resurgent Robert Thornton, White did OK midweek and perhaps should have picked up another title, but didn't, this is the most one sided projection yet with White above 80%, 3/10 isn't that tasty to suggest betting outright, but if you want to add it to an accumulator then I don't think you're going to be losing any value.

Wade/Edhouse - James could do with another run in one of these and Edhouse isn't the worst draw he could have got, Ritchie outduelled the Canadian Murschell yesterday in a bit of a scrappy game, he may need to improve, but there's actually a bit of value here - 0.1u Edhouse 3/1, I'm thinking 9/4 would be the correct line.

Gurney/Searle - The two losing finalists from midweek meet, Searle looking to get every cent he can being very close to the worlds cutoff which he realistically needs to make to save his card, this looks closer than the market suggests, 0.25u Searle 23/10.

Wright/Painter - Kevin edged through yesterday, but faces an event winner from this week and top 4 player in Peter Wright, which is a whole different level of player. Snakebite comes in as the most odds on player so far, and at 2/11 it's nearly worth a gamble.

van Gerwen/O'Connor - Interesting test for van Gerwen, O'Connor is not going to fear him in a rematch of the final O'Connor made in Europe. 11/1 is a big number in a two horse race, but MvG in the Netherlands is hellishly strong. O'Connor is not drawing dead, the model gives him a 16% shot, but I'm not going to bet against van Gerwen in his backyard without a better reason than that edge.

Clayton/Anderson - Kyle's been hitting some good legs here and there, he wasn't really tested by Bunse yesterday, while Clayton's gone a little bit cold over recent tournaments. Anderson's actually the favourite, which surprises me as he's not the seed, I was hoping that the model projecting him at 55% would allow a bet but the line actually looks perfect.

Whitlock/Reyes - Final game and it's between players that can be very infuriating to gamble on, Reyes beat a player in Wilson that's arguably playing better than Whitlock as of right now, the market reckons Whitlock at 65%, I'm thinking it's nearer 60%, if you think Reyes can play as well as he did yesterday two days running, then fire.

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