Sunday, 27 September 2020

ET 2 quarters

MvG gone! Wright gone! This is now completely wide open and it's pretty tough to pick a winner - got to think the favourite will be whoever comes through the Petersen/Ratajski game, heck it's even arguable that the third best player is in that half of the draw as well. Anything to punt on?

King/Wade is tracking at around 65/35 in favour of Wade, you certainly can't get better than 4/7 on the Machine right now. King's playing very well, but Wade looked composed in rattling off a 6-1 win over Suljovic, and the season long stats aren't showing King as being much value - not even 40%. Happy to pass over that one.

Clayton/Chisnall is a bit tighter, Chizzy being the favourite but only about 55/45 or there abouts. Clayton, in the master computer's eye, is showing as the favourite, and by a decent clip - over 60%, and critically here the up and down nature of Jonny's game is matched by an equally up and down set of statistics from Chisnall. So let's go 0.25u Clayton 6/5, he's beaten the world champ and has course and distance on the European Tour, so this looks alright to me.

Noppert/Gurney's a big chance for Danny, he's going to have a tough game in the semi if he gets through this one, but make no mistake - Gurney played some extremely good stuff against Durrant, especially early on to get the three leg lead which gave him enough of a cushion to serve out after Glen got one back. Danny was also fine against Hopp but needed to come from behind - we're actually getting odds against on this one, so as I see Noppert at over 55% I'll take 0.25u Noppert 6/5.

Ratajski/Petersen is must see TV. This is going to be epic. Devon was on fire late in the game against Cross and is one of the hottest players on the planet right now, and this is his best chance to win a first title since last week, but Ratajski is Ratajski and the relentless Pole is a top ten player. Bookies have this really close - it's not on oddschecker but both books I've quickly look at have it evens Petersen and 4/5 Ratajski, I'll keep riding the Devon train - 0.25u Petersen evs, on 2020 stats he's at 57% to claim this which is good enough for me, his confidence must be higher than ever.

Keane Barry's binked another Dev Tour - I'm not sure whether it's a worlds spot or a tour card he's clinched already (it's one or the other given who else is up at the top of the rankings), but he's looking really good to make the full step to the senior circuit next year. Won't be back for the semis.

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