Sunday 27 September 2020

ET2 day 3 afternoon session

Decent enough day yesterday. Obviously it needed Devon Petersen to get out of a big hole and finally get the win over Price, but they all count, so we move further up, also thanks to Clayton getting the win over Dobey. White, not so much, fairly significant underperformance in that one, but we'll move on to today. Eight games first up (I will try to rush out quarter final reads), let's go:

van Gerwen/King - King's played really well in two games so far, striking a 103 average against Wattimena, while van Gerwen was alright against Lennon, kind of fell over the line after a good run in the middle of the match. Think this is another MvG game where, like yesterday, a perceived lack of form has unintentionally corrected for the actual lack in difference in quality, we can get 7/2 on Mervyn, which with me seeing a 26% shot of him taking it isn't appealing. Up to you though, if you think King can keep his level of play from Friday/Saturday going then I don't hate it.

Suljovic/Wade - OK, this was a pretty odd one, Suljovic was pretty good I think after a slightly slow start to overcome Jeff Smith (and a nine darter attempt, think North also missed the ninth dart yesterday?), whereas Wade missed his flight, somehow didn't get timed out, and instead played last on against Kurz and looked at best OK, nothing real spectacular after leg 1 as Kurz was a little bit disappointing. Too close to call really, Wade I think is a tiny favourite, and as he's 5/6 against Mensur's 11/10, we can pass on it. Maybe take whoever wins the bull to win 6-5?

Wright/Clayton - Peter continued to look very strong with a dominating display against Michael Smith, while Clayton did what he needed to do this weekend in nicking a decent tight match against Chris Dobey, hitting quite a lot of two treble visits throughout the match. This may be down to psychology - Clayton is now in the Grand Prix, is the pressure off and will it allow him to go and play his natural best game? He certainly wasn't playing bad yesterday. 5/2 is kind of tempting, but I think I'll ignore it with just how well Peter played yesterday.

Chisnall/Aspinall - Chizzy won easily as we thought he might do but didn't pull the trigger on, while Nathan didn't have a great deal of trouble against Horvat, going up 4-0 before Dragutin got a couple of decent holds to make the scoreline a bit more respectable. Market has this about 60/40 in favour of Nathan, that feels pretty much on the money. As an aside, in Nathan and Glen Durrant, is this the first time where a major nation's World Cup team (probably Smith/Cross) will be missing both the best two players as of right now?

Hopp/Noppert - Max took out Ian White as mentioned earlier, not the greatest of games but the job got done, Danny easily got past Adrian Lewis 6-2 with a ton plus average. First bet of the day here, 0.25u Noppert 8/13, Max simply isn't in the same league right now and I see Danny winning this one more than three times out of four. The German crowd might be a bit of a factor, but that's such a huge difference between projection and odds that it can't be ignored.

Gurney/Durrant - Daryl got past Gabriel Clemens in a game where the scoreline flattered him, he took just the one leg in five visits which says more about Gabriel's quality of play, if he showed up this'd have been level through six, while Glen was solid throughout against a currently dangerous opponent in Scott Waites, first leg aside. I was thinking that, with Gurney listed at 6/4, this would be a good spot to go on Glen, but no - the projections are spitting out 60/40 in favour of Duzza, so the line looks pretty much spot on.

Petersen/Cross - Devon's game we've mentioned - Rob was better than competent against O'Connor, apart from the first leg he didn't really give Willie much of a chance at anything. The bookies have this even - Devon actually being a tiny 10/11 favourite. How times change. I think this is close to a bet, I've got Devon up at just around 58%, it's really, really close. Probably would take evens, keep an eye on it.

Ratajski/Cullen - Krzysztof was very comfortable in only allowing two legs against Richard North, the highlight of which was North hitting eight perfect, then hitting double twelve at the seventh attempt. Still, at least he won the leg, unlike Smith. Cullen got through a close one against Hunt, not playing badly at all, the averages dragged down by a bad leg 9 which probably cost Hunt the match. This is rated at around 65% in favour of the Polish number one - I'm fine with that, I see it at 64%, so that leaves just the one bet for today in Noppert.

As stated, I wouldn't hate going Petersen or Clayton if you want a bit more action, but Noppert is the only thing that really looks good.

As hinted at yesterday, Keane Barry was able to claim the second of yesterday's Dev Tour events, some good wins over Brooks, Evetts, Zonneveld, van Peer and Meikle in the final, running over multiple tour card holders is always impressive. Evetts did claim the first one, with van Peer going deep in this one as well, Damian Mol also being there or there abouts. It'll be a close race for worlds and tour card spots but I really want Barry to claim both. He's just too good and has too much potential not to get himself on to the main tour, which is the next logical progression.

May see you soon after the Ratajski match for some more picks.

1 comment:

  1. Yeah, both Smith and North missed a 9-dart attempt, North the more typical route with 141 left a D12 miss