Thursday 29 February 2024

UK Open rounds 1-3 bets and livepost

OK, here we go, first thing we're going to do is go through every already scheduled game and try to call what we think are decent value bets, then when we get to tomorrow morning we'll start updating this live in play with what we see. Let us hope to god that where we're not getting immediate DartConnect stuff (i.e. on the televised boards) that we don't get the same sort of fuckups that we got last year, but I trust sportradar about as much as I trust Sheffield United to go one half without conceding, so let's go:

Dennant/de Graaf - Market is giving Dennant a small edge at 4/5. That's commensurate with what I was thinking in the preview post, so happy enough to move on.

Taylor/Western - Dom is very, very odds on. It might be slightly silly, but his overall numbers look good enough to just about justify it against a random Rileys qualifier, but it wouldn't surprise me at all if Brandon was to nick it about as much as the market is suggesting.

Lauby/Rafferty - First one where we've got good data on both, and it seems legitimately too close to call, market has Danny as very (21/20) tiny odds against, so seems a clear ignore for me.

Bates/Boulton - Another that appeared close on paper, looking at things this seems like a clear coinflip, neither player is odds against so nothing doing here.

van Dongen/Tricole - We've got more than enough data on both to draw an inference - Jules is better. Significantly better. An implied 60% win chance doesn't truly reflect things enough, 0.25u van Dongen 4/6

Coleman/Wolters - I'm really not convinced by Wolters, and Coleman seems to be doing enough to make me think he's pretty live in this one, so I'm tempted to get on the bandwagon and go with the small flier, 0.1u Coleman 13/10, it is a flier but he's shown enough and this is probably a better environment for Ashley than it is for Tim.

Roes/Reus - Data is fairly limited on both, but I find it hard to believe from what I have seen out of Bradly that he is in a spot where he's going to be severely outclassed, so this seems like an automatic play at the price, 0.1u Roes 12/5

van der Wal/Haines - Market's finding it very hard to split the two. They've got Jitse as a favourite, but it's really not by much at all. I'd have been extremely tempted by a flier on Johnny if the market was moderately favouring the card holder, but they're not.

Brooks/Crabtree - Cameron comes into this one as a minor favourite in the market, not even 60/40 - but looking at the numbers I have, I've got to say I'm tempted by Bradley in this one - only for a small play, but I can't see that Crabtree makes a case to be the better player, so with a bit of an odds against edge, we'll go with the line, 0.1u Brooks 6/5

Toonders/Landman - Landman comes into this one as a significant favourite, and it's understandable given the figures we're seeing from the German prospect. Can't see Landman slipping up here, if I was going to go for a bet it probably would be on Toonders as 7/2 seems like a fair enough price for most players who'd face Landman in this competition, I just don't know enough about him really.

Rodriguez/Meulenkamp - I've got enough data on these to think it's too close to call. Neither player is odds against. Ron looks to be shading it and I think if there is an edge, it's minor in his favour, but 10/11 is not in the slightest bit tempting.

Croft/Borland - I might have been tempted by a flier on Joe here - with Borland being somewhat of a name player, and with Joe being basically unknown, I'd have thought we might have got a tempting price for a shot here, but we can't get better than 2/1, which is nowhere near enough to risk it on someone who, while showing things, is coming up against a decent enough opponent on the biggest stage he's going to have played on.

Lane/Gruellich - Market seems about right in this one. Domink looks a bit better from what I can see, but it's not that big a deal and 8/11 on the German looks to be a sensible enough line so not interested in this one.

Turetta/Grundy - An interesting one. Grundy looks better, but we've not seen enough from Michele to get a real read on just how much better. The Italian looks to have enough about him that we're not going to get involved at 8/15, while Robert is not showing enough that we want to start thinking he's going to win enough where we can make any sort of play that way either.

Kist/Geeraets - Just going to take this one off the board. We have no real way of knowing where Kist is at, while Patrick is still very much in the realms of the unknown as to his talents, Christian being a small favourite seems appropriate enough in the context.

Whitehead/Gates - This one seems a bit too close to me? Conan's looked good on occasions, but what's he done recently? Not a great deal I'd argue, so with the line being fairly tight I'm going to take the American for a small play, 0.1u Gates 4/5

Wenig/Lonsdale - This seems like a clear no play, Lukas looks better as far as I can tell, but Tom looks to have enough about him that I don't think Wenig is 4/7 better, at least not that significantly better where I'd want to start throwing bets around.

Bennett/Mitchell - Am I nuts for thinking that Scott is close enough to Leighton that this is flippy? I'm not sure that I am, I love Bennett but I think Mitchell is close enough that we can go with a small nibble at the price we're offered, 0.1u Mitchell 11/8

Burness/Henderson - We have good data on both, we know Hendo's better, the market also knows Hendo's better, maybe he's that much better than Kevin that 1/2 is underestimating the Scot somewhat here, but Burness has the ability to be a tad annoying and be a spoiler, so while I don't hate a Hendo bet, I'm not going to officially recommend one.

Scutt/Plaisier - Scutt looks a touch better in this game where we know a lot about both, and the market's finding it really hard to split the two with neither at odds against. As I'm seeing it around 60/40, I think there's enough edge to go with the sponsors' line, 0.1u Scutt 19/20

Male/Dragt - Martijn enters this one as quite the significant favourite, approaching a 75/25 advantage. I think he's got enough about him that he could cause the upset a decent amount of the time - probably only talking about a touch more than one in three on a gut feeling, but with the price, we'll got for it, 0.1u Male 5/2

Claydon/Lovely - Market is finding it hard to split these and they actually install Thomas as the tiniest of favourites. I don't have a problem with that, it looks hard to pick a winner based on the numbers I can see, gun to head maybe Brett is the play but we don't need to bet, so we won't.

Puha/Klaasen - I would ideally like more data on Haupai, but he's not doing anywhere near enough to make me think he is as close to Jelle as the market suggests - and the market does not have him odds against. 0.1u Klaasen 5/6 and the temptation to go a quarter unit is definitely there. Give me twice the amount of data to confirm more what I'm seeing and I go with it.

Bialecki/Walker - Think this is a fairly easy avoid. Don't think anyone is going to say Jenson is the better player. Don't think anyone is going to say Jenson doesn't have a puncher's chance in this one. Bialecki being a touch shorter than 1/2 appears completely reasonable.

Krohne/Taylor - The market seems to have caught onto Paul's competence and Michael's lack of any real pedigree, at least in what is publicly available, shoving the German at shorter than 1/3. We're not going to touch things at that sort of price.

Killington/Szaganski - This one feels intuitively tight. The market is shading things in favour of Radek - that's not unreasonable in the slightest, but I'm thinking George is extremely live in this one - but 11/10 is not the sort of price where I'd want to speculate in the context of everything we know about these two.

Gregory/Griffin - I'm almost half tempted by a play on Rhys here. There's nothing spectacular about Harry's game, but I think there's just about enough that he might keep Griffin honest, and with Rhys only breaking 4/7 in a couple of random spots, there's not the appeal or the thoughts that there's enough separation between the players to go with it.

Hogg/Beveridge - We really don't know where Jason is at. It's a tough one to speculate on accordingly, but we can look at Darren being around 1/2 or even shorter and come to the conclusion that it's not that unreasonable a line to price up.

Pilgrim/Richardson - There's not too many places that have seemingly priced this up, but I think that's an oddschecker naming issue, but what I could see gives Darryl a really strong implied chance which looks to be around the right area, so we move on.

Sumner/Nijman - Wessel's just so much better here. Coralbrokes are giving a bit of a silly line, 0.5u Nijman 1/5, we'll just take that and insure against one of the fliers, Nijman's scarily good and a relatively unknown Rileys qualifier isn't going to be able to live with that standard.

It's already gone 1am without me noticing, so I'm going to cap things for now at round one, and whack through the ten second round games and five third round games before the off tomorrow as we've got a bit of time to work with before those go live.

Friday morning edit - Pre known round 2/3 matches:

Labre/Lennon - Lennon is a strong favourite, but not quite the overwhelming favourite on the numbers that I thought he'd be, so with a best price of 1/4, I'm not actually entertaining the bet, seems as if Jacques is just doing enough, which does surprise me significantly but I'll trust the numbers rather than have a long odds on catastrophe.

Sparidaans/Perez - Appears tight. Christian might just have the smallest of edges, and he's correctly priced as just odds on versus Jeffrey's just odds against, so this is another easy avoid.

Klose/Warner - Klose should win this one quite comfortably, I like Warner but he's a clear second best here, I've got Daniel up at around the mid 70's range so 4/11 best price isn't really moving the needle.

Monk/Slevin - Numbers are throwing Monk back at us around 60/40, which doesn't seem unreasonable, he's actually odds against in several places so I'll take that, 0.1u Monk 11/10

Nentjes/Rupprecht - Pascal looks a tiny favourite from what I can see such is the state of Geert's form, it's only 55/45, but it looks like the market is already on this and if anything overreacting a tad.

van Peer/Kuivenhoven - Berry's the better player but Maik's still pretty competent so I'm only seeing 60/40 or there abouts, typical price is 8/11 which is about right but the exchanges are offering a bit more of a price closer to evens which may be worth a look.

van der Velde/de Zwaan - Jeffrey's better, it's a bit more than 60/40 but not quite 2/1, we can see a price of 4/7 which looks just about perfect to me.

Sedlacek/Owen - Karel is still being returned as a favourite, although it's only a tad more than 55/45, Owen's 11/8 so it's another one where we're seeing what we'd be expecting to see.

Goffin/Kenny - Nick's basically winning this two times out of three, the market's seeing three times out of four which looks to me to be a bit overstating the difference in quality, but I don't have the confidence in Callum's game to have a nibble at what's approaching 11/4, if I'm taking big underdogs I've got to have some faith in their ability to get matches won when they get into a position to do it and that just isn't here.

Roelofs/Burton - Pure flip to me. Absolutely pure flip. Burton's got the market edge, but the vig levels aren't giving me enough of an edge on Owen to go with it, needing probably 11/8 or longer. We're close, but no, again the exchanges might be where you need to go.

Krcmar/Edhouse - Into round three, everything about this one says it's close but that Boris has a small, 55/45 advantage, which looking at the market is baked into his 4/5 price already.

Lukeman/Wattimena - Another one that's close on paper, it's throwing up Lukeman as a similar edged favourite to Krcmar, and the lines are about the same again, if anything the market likes Martin a tad more, but certainly not enough where we can go with Jermaine.

O'Connor/Suljovic - Mensur's numbers are actually keeping this a touch closer than I thought, and it's giving us a third 55/45 in a row, albeit in favour of the Magpie, Mensur's 5/4 so it's another boring market looks right game.

Mansell/White - White's got the better game, it's a little bit more favoured than the last three but we're not even up to 60%, that's just how well Mickey is playing, but there's a few places that are giving White at evens, and the exchanges are showing 2.1 or better, 0.1u White evs is absolutely worth the punt here.

Rodriguez/Razma - Absolute handicapper's nightmare this one. Anything can happen. Madars is better, and with numbers up near 65% he's worth the stab, 0.1u Razma 4/5 on Hills, Rowby could turn it round and Madars could stink, but getting home three in five doesn't seem outrageous so we bet this.

Just getting under way now.

1114 - Looking like we're live in one of our first bets, Male's outdoing Dragt on the averages after a dodgy start, has got the break back, still needs another but he's live at least. Scutt/Plaisier's on throw and appears tight so Connor's going to need a good leg to break somewhere.

1119 - Male gets the break so just needs to hold from here, Geeraets and Haines are legs away from what I think would be upsets.

1121 - Haines gets the win, that looks like a really good performance. Harry Lane's also one away, but Dragt's broken straight back so we're in News of the World territory.

1126 - Harry Lane gets through with a competent enough display, being particularly strong where Gruellich was actually winning legs. Should be live against Huybrechts you would think. Geeraets nicks it but ought to be a dog to Smith-Neale.

1131 - Killington wins a stinker against Szaganski, going to need to up it next round but against Knops he's still going to be live. Plaisier/Scutt went all holds, good contest, loss for the bets but we'll take it, Taylor nicks a scrappy one against Western in the decider and didn't look great, while Male gets our first win on the board with what looked like a comedy doubling break in a decider against Dragt!

1135 - Seeing early prices of 2/1 Haines. Would probably need a bit more but if he plays like he did in round one, that wouldn't be awful. Brooks up 3-1 on Crabtree is a good start.

1139 - 4/6 on Adam Smith-Neale appears kind of tempting with Patrick not doing anything spectacular. Will see if it's priced any closer once more books go live, but will probably add this in the next few minutes.

1142 - Mitchell's got a break on Bennett, so all going OK there. Lane's not even priced at 7/4, I'd have thought we could have got a bit more but the numbers from round one don't lie.

1143 - Brooks safely home for the win, and it looks like Coleman's just got the critical break. Unless nobody could hold for the first four legs.

1145 - 0.1u Smith-Neale 4/6, not seeing anything better coming so will take it, seems easily better than a 60/40 game for him.

1149 - Lane's as short as 11/10 in some books lol. Also not seeing timely updating of stage boards on Dart Connect, stage 2's just finished game 2 and Scutt/Plaisier isn't up yet. Coleman's also in a world of trouble down 5-3.

1152 - Coleman does indeed go down to drop us back to 2-2 for the day. Tim played well in fairness. May need to go manual on the stage games once this batch of back room games goes final with multiple in leg 9 onwards.

1157 - Dart Connect appears dead, but X indicates we at least got the win in the Mitchell game.

1200 - Dart Connect back working. Really surprised to see Pilgrim lose but looks like Richardson had a blinder.

1203 - So on catchups, Richardson did indeed have the performance of the round so far with three twelve darters or better. Meulenkamp also looked really good on board two after checking, Mitchell was solid, Griffin also fought well to advance. Time to recheck bookies.

1207 - Seeing a wide variety of prices on Killington's next game.

1210 - Knops on Hills is stupidly long compared to other bookies. Got to feel it'll be palped so I won't recommend it, but 2/1 with the way Killington played in round one? Take the shot if you want but don't expect to be paid on it.

1216 - Bad few minutes for our bets - van Dongen misses match darts against Tricole and loses, while Klaasen missed a bunch of doubles and has gifted Puha a break. Looks as if Dart Connect is slowly catching up on stage matches with the Scutt game just being entered now.

1217 - Someone look at the Paul Krohne match and tell me where the hell that eleven darter came from in the decider?

1222 - Dennant looked very good in his win over de Graaf. I'm going to ride the Richardson train now, 0.1u Richardson 6/4 given how well he played and that Brown remains unconvincing, if he can beat Pilgrim he can make the evening session.

1225 - Puha goes through after Klaasen rectified things sadly. Hendo moves safely on, and Joe Croft held his nerve really well - got to be very tough to go from 4-0 up to 4-5 in that situation and still come through.

1230 - Probably going to add Graham Hall shortly. Taylor was very fortunate and I'm seeing 4/9 - will just give it a minute to see if anyone prices things a bit better. Whitehead has started disgustingly well, which is a worry.

1235 - 0.25u Hall 4/9, not seeing anything better straight away. Roes looks like he's throwing the game away dropping to 4-2 behind.

1241 - Solid turn around from Gates, now leading 5-4, just got to close it out now. May be tempted by a play on Lee Evans against Landman if and when I see prices.

1242 - Lendog gets the job done, but what on earth is happening to Bialecki, 4-1 down?

1245 - 0.25u Evans 7/4 on 365, others have this closer to a flip, will lock this in on sight.

1249 - Round one close to being finished up, Roes didn't have enough, doesn't look like either played great so a missed opportunity I feel. Beveridge through but not looking fantastic so may consider Mitchell in round two.

1252 - First line I see on Mitchell looks like evens, I am not sure that's enough. Will wait and see. The Master wins a decider, nice.

1255 - Nijman still winning, but going worryingly off the boil with the average plummeting, maybe they both missed a bunch of doubles in one leg but this isn't quite as trivial as it should be.

1259 - Nijman's safely home. Evans against Landman is a touch longer on Betfair so have cashed out the 7/4 and taken 9/5, suggest you do the same if you're on it.

1302 - Looks like DC's having another pause, so will update FRH ranking sheet with round one results while we wait.

1312 - Looks as if DC's caught up. Smith-Neale lost to the one break, looked a bit below par, Monk's also off to a bit of a rough start as well but plenty of time to turn it around.

1315 - 0.25u Nijman 11/10 on 365, they've really priced it odds against? Ladbrokes has it 4/9. Will scratch this from the record if it gets palped obviously.

1320 - Bit surprised to see Rupprecht go out, but that looks to have been the best we've seen from Nentjes for some time. Not seeing much else of interest in round two in terms of further punts, most lines are now up so it's waiting time for round three I guess. Extremely steady performance from Kuivenhoven as well to eliminate van Peer.

1323 - On Nentjes, I'm kind of tempted to fire at small odds against versus Meikle. Ordinarily I wouldn't touch it given the form of both, but if Geert's shown something, maybe it's worth the play? Good leads for both Croft and Knops right now, also 365 has moved the Nijman price to evens, so maybe this actually gets through, moving it by just one tick ought to be a good sign?

1326 - Monk loses, not a great look, just had too many legs where he did nothing on the scoring. We're down a touch but the remaining bets I feel decent about so time to recover.

1328 - Now Betfair have priced Nijman up at 10/11, which is nice.

1333 - Big comeback from George Killington, showing a bit more so maybe we consider him against King? I'd probably have a think about Kuivenhoven given his performance, but a best of 6/5 against Whitlock isn't really interesting.

1339 - Big win for Joe Croft, his next round game against Keane Barry should be a good one. Also checking the scores, Owen performed very well against Sedlacek, Doets is going to be tough but maybe there's enough there to have a nibble, we'll see.

1340 - Got three bets live now - Hall looks to be on throw with Taylor but will need a break, while the plays on Richardson and Evans are just going live. Joshua's just lost the first, looks like a missed double special or something.

1344 - Quick look at some round three lines, Owen and Perez both seem a bit too short, not liking their chances at the lines offered but not really wanting to go the other way on either of them.

1348 - Hall kind of not performing, Taylor looks a touch better and has just got a break, Graham was alright through four but is tailing off badly. Evans has a 3-0 lead though.

1353 - Hall gives us an L, was perfectly fine for three legs then turned into a pub player, but Richardson has a break at 4-2 with the throw and Evans is 5-0 up.

1358 - Big few minutes - Evans completed the whitewash of Landman, Richardson completed a 6-2 win over Keegan Brown, and Nijman's 3-1 up with the throw after losing the first leg so looking good in that one. Can start to look at round three new games soon, interesting that Labre is holding his own somewhat so maybe our assessment that Lennon was overvalued was correct?

1400 - Seems as if Brett Claydon has pulled the upset over Andy Baetens, but the game is nowhere to be seen on sportradar. Hopefully that causes no issues with Dart Connect.

1402 - Never mind, it's on DC already, all is fine.

1404 - Labre now 5-4 up, I hope this isn't a missed opportunity. Nijman and Zonneveld are exchanging breaks, Wessel is still on throw but getting to 5-3 instead of 4-4 with yet another break would be real nice if possible.

1407 - Lee Evans is longer than 2/1 on 365, and 5/4 on Ladbrokes. Do I take it? I'm not sure he's quite that close to Ricky though. Labre also gets the job done, that for me is probably the biggest shock of the day.

1414 - Still not seeing anything that looks overly exciting in round three. That Lee Evans line is probably the closest thing there is. Will give it time, there's still a lot of round two games to finish.

1418 - That is one heck of a turnaround by Graham Usher!

1420 - I see just sneaking through on what I assume to be board two that Gates got past Griffin. Jim Williams is probably going to be a bet as I imagine he'll be undervalued as usual.

1423 - Brett Claydon seems rather tempting. Soutar's better, and he's playing better this year, but I'm not sure he's that much better given Laddies are offering north of 5/2. Ladbrokes quick pricing of Gates indicates that the value on Jim probably isn't going to be there though.

1425 - Yeah, small flier, 0.1u Claydon 27/10 with Ladbrokes.

1434 - Looking like it's another brief pause for DC. 365 are offering a price on Williams that is a bit closer, but still nothing doing.

1442 - Still nothing doing on the DC end. Half tempted by Mario against Hempel, but that second round game isn't confidence building.

1446 - So it seems as if DC is recognising that the games are finished, but not actually reporting any of the scoring, given it's dropped all the live games in some sort of order that's consistent with that theory. It's a waiting game right now.

1451 - Looks like we've just had a big data dump. Nobody in the games that I've caught up on really inspired, so will just wait for the couple of stage games to finish, and then probably have one last look at round three.

1502 - Pretty slow start for White, coupled with a rapid one from Mansell, Ian's on the board now but may already have too much to do. Wasn't expecting Suljovic to be 4-0 up. Dart Connect blaming the wifi - surely after last year this should have been sorted, and why the hell are they using wifi in the first place?

1504 - Daniel Klose is 6/4 on Ladbrokes against Plaisier. Are we even sure he should be an underdog in that one? Suljovic completes the whitewash, and in another good sign for the card holding veterans, van der Voort also moves through.

1515 - Better on 365, 0.1u Klose 13/8. White is making a fight of it!

1518 - And then White has a terrible scoring leg as Mansell leaves a two darter after twelve, and duly cleans up. Oh well.

1534 - Just working through the round three games now. Menzies seems like he should be close to a play, but with Thibault's game only just closing up round two, it'll take a bit for more than one line to filter through. Claydon's holding his own at 3-3 with Soutar.

1539 - Claydon gets the key break and is now one away, as Joshua Richardson nicks a nailbiting decider against Jamie Hughes, nice work.

1544 - Claydon finishes the job, and it looks as if Razma is in a strong position against Rowby, which unless we see a slightly better line on Menzies will probably do for us in terms of bets.

1550 - Seems as if Tricole had a very quick turnaround and is already in play, so with it looking like Razma's about to blow a big lead, we're just down to the Klose/Plaisier game then we're done, guaranteed to be up for the session.

1613 - Klose's got himself into a decent position, up 4-2 with the darts. Probably should have just fired on Menzies as he won as well, but didn't have a great deal of time to react.

1619 - Pretty cool spot where we've got three German players on three adjacent boards all 5-3 up. Can they all convert?

1626 - And they do! Klose finishes up our book nicely in the green, but Tim Wolters dumping out Joyce is the big one.

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