Friday 21 June 2024

Leverkusen bets, now featuring actual bets

Yeah, that title yesterday was a tad misleading, but let's actually go this time:

Szaganski/Taylor - Actually closer than I thought it would be, was thinking 8/13 on Dom would be value but it's projecting with him just over a 60/40 shot, so no bet it is.

Sedlacek/Dennant - Similarly on the money. Karel's better, but he's not that much better, it's projecting basically bang on 60/40, it's a 4/6 line, so we move on.

Hughes/Slevin - Now here we've got a bit of a play, the market can barely separate them with neither odds against, but I'm seeing Jamie as a couple of points better in every department, which is translating to nearer 65% than 60% chances. Easy play as such, 0.25u Hughes 10/11

Blum/Doets - Not got any recent data on Nico at all, and looking at the qualifier he didn't hit the 80's in averages once. Kevin should have zero problems here and a best price of 1/8 reflects that. Might even be value, scary to say.

Edhouse/Dueckers - Another in form player against someone we don't have much on. I do at least have seven legs on Jan, and it wasn't pretty. Dueckers' quali was at least a bit better than Nico's was, but still nothing that should trouble Ritchie, but here at least you can see some sort of out.

de Graaf/Gilding - Market can't really separate these. I've got Gilding as slightly better, but it's not even 55/45, so with the bookies having him as the 10/11 side in another one where neither is odds against, we're not touching the game.

Baetens/Rafferty - Ought to be competitive. Another one where we've got a favourite, but it's not an enormous deal, Andy floating around that 60% to 65% midpoint. That'd translate to around 8/13, he's a fraction shorter than that, but nowhere near enough where we can start looking at Nathan as any sort of value play.

Kantele/Gurney - Hard to really gauge where Marko is at, we have some data but it's not a huge amount of data, and the majority of it is at SDC level. 1/6 on Gurney feels like it might be slightly unkind, but this doesn't feel like 2023 Marko where he was winning everything at his respective game. If only the World Cup could have given us some sort of stage tell (not that doubles tells you anything of use at all really).

Pratnemer/Troppmann - Now this is one just on pure gut reads. Benjamin looked really good in his quali, 90 average every single round bar the final where it just looked like he forgot how to hit doubles in the latter stages. Kevin was steady but less spectacular in the qualifier (should note that Pratnemer's was all the way back in early April), but in terms of legs in the database he's much better than Pratnemer, although neither have more than ten, that being from that impressive 6-4 reverse against van Veen in Kiel. The market can't split the two, if Ben was just average in the qual then I'd have no hesitation in going with Troppmann at 10/11, but it's a sign that he's playing alright and he is known to be a good player at best.

Bates/Cullen - Line looks about right to me. Joe's clearly a better player, projecting a tad above 70/30, 4/9 is near enough to ignore the game.

Kurz/Rydz - Don't actually have any data in the database (at least not recently enough) on Niko, quali was OK, flashing in places, although mostly when he needed it against the likes of LML and Horvat. Callan could be similarly up and down. Anything could happen here, but I'll go with the home nation stab, 0.1u Kurz 5/2 as the combination of Rydz not showing up or Niko playing a blinder feels like it's not an unrealistic thing to happen a third of the time.

van Barneveld/Ratajski - Good solid data on both, and it's actually projecting Ratajski to be closer to 65% than 60%, which surprised me given Barney's seemingly had a good start to the year. The market's got this as another one where neither's odds against, so 0.25u Ratajski 10/11

Smith/Wade - Super lol first round game this. Wade's pushing up towards 2/1 but isn't quite there, that feels just about spot on to me, I'm seeing him with more than a one in three shot, but not much more. Is actually a big added pressure game for James which doesn't help and moving things towards Michael a tick as a result isn't unfair.

de Decker/Woodhouse - Another tight game with implications, I'm seeing Mike having a very small advantage, the market agrees, we move on.

Clemens/van Duijvenbode - Yet more games that the odds setters are saying are too close to call. Sadly I tend to agree with that assessment, maybe Clemens is slightly better but it's no more than calling him 10/11 as a fair line - which is more or less where he is.

Meikle/van den Bergh - Ryan's improving from a bad spot, but this isn't a kind draw. The market may be slightly slow to catch up on Meikle getting better though - I've got him as a bit more than a one in three shot, while he's just the right side of 2/1 if you want to punt. I wouldn't hate it, but I'd probably need getting up to 5/2 before I really went with it, and he's only better than 2/1 in a couple of places with most bookies having things around the 7/4, 15/8 sort of mark. Easy enough no play for now but maybe name money comes in on Dimi late and we can take a flier.

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