Sunday 23 June 2024

Leverkusen last 16

Well that was a day of ups and downs, Searle and Dobey coming through tight games to put us in a good spot, then Cross had probably the worst match I can remember him playing to put us back where started. Fairly chalky day with the majority of the seeds going through, I'm just going to do very quick thoughts on the last sixteen.

Bates/Bunting - no bet, Bunting being priced shorter than 1/3 is pretty much bang on, could be a tick shorter but no big deal.

Heta/Dobey - no bet, looks right again, Dobey's about a 55/45 favourite and he's 5/6.

Chisnall/Doets - 0.25u Chisnall 4/7, seems a strange one that it's this close. Kevin's OK but Chizzy projects near to 80%. Much nearer to going half a unit than not betting this one.

van Gerwen/Searle - 0.1u Searle 7/5, looks like a sliver of value, Searle's actually projecting a couple of percent higher than van Gerwen right now, although due to consistency Michael has the slightly higher average. Call it a flip and Betfred give us just about enough odds to take a small stab.

van Duijvenbode/Schindler - 0.25u Schindler 4/5, Dirk's not looked too bad this weekend but this is projecting nearer to 65% than 60% for Martin, so 4/5 looks pretty tasty.

Smith/Wright - Might be a tiny, tiny bit of value on Wright here, he's just north of 2/1 and we're getting him above 35%, if it was an equivalent player I might say a tenth of a unit for the hell of it but I just don't feel confident in Peter's ability to get wins over big players right now.

Rock/Smith - 0.1u Smith 6/5, similar to the Searle one except here we have Ross a tiny bit above 55% and the consistency is less of an issue, so the smaller price seems fine here.

van Barneveld/van Veen - 0.1u van Veen 10/11, not really sure why this one is so close, we've got Gian as enough of a favourite that he should be nearer 8/11 than 10/11. Sure Barney just beat Humphries but I don't think that should count for this much.

So we've got a couple of normal plays and some small plays around even money, let's see what we can do. Should be back for the quarters.

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