Göttingen quarters

Not really sure what to make of that (I'm meaning the whole session, not the comedic leg 11 of Menzies against de Decker, which is must see viewing). Ando got bailed out massively, make no mistake, at the same time Nijman ran into someone averaging 110 which you really can't do anything about. Smith however, 4-1 up and on throw really, really should be seen out, but wasn't, and annoyingly the one killer leg was to hold to make it 5-5 when a five or possibly six visit hold would have done with what Luke threw there (I'd guess 240 in six is at best a 50-50 proposition?), move that anywhere else in the last half of the game and Michael just gets home. Oh well, at least Gary saved us to some extent, and any time you have a 3/1 shot get to a deciding leg, you're probably happy you were at least on the right side of the line, so let's look at the quarters.

Menzies/Joyce - Very close. Joyce probably coming into form a bit more, but all samples are real close and Ryan only projects at 53% overall, which with the market favouring Joyce a tad, I'm not seeing the opportunity for value.

Price/van Gerwen - This one should be really good with how the players are playing, and all three samples I use have it no more than 51/49 in either player's direction, this is the closest thing to a flip I think I can see. There's not much of anything being matched here, but it's looking like it'll price up as a sort of 4/5 Price evens MvG game, which isn't offering much.

Smith/Anderson - A third close one. Ando's better on the longer samples for sure, but December on, it does look like Ross is playing the better stuff, and the averaging of them makes it Ando being favoured, but not quite 55/45. There's not actually anything being offered to back Ross here, but Ando is available at 1.87, which looks as close to correct as you're going to get.

Aspinall/Humphries - And one that isn't so close. All three samples have Nathan in the 30% to 40% range, and generally in the lower range - averaging out to having a tiny fraction more than a one in three shot. There isn't actually a market on Betfair yet, but 365 have Aspinall at 11/5, so I've got to think that if we're offered anything, it's because of an underestimation of Nathan, but it's not going to be anywhere near enough to play.

So unfortunately I don't think we have anything at all to do. I was going to do all the semis as well, but given three of the games look extremely close, I think we can summarise easily. Joyce against Price looks like an obvious 2-1 sort of game. Ando against Humphries looks like basically a coin flip, while Ando against Aspinall, as you'd expect, looks around the 65/35 mark. Then, as a possible final, Price against Humphries seems flippy, and you should be able to use the other numbers listed here as a proxy to work out other permutations. As I write this, the last game is now there on the exchange, but there's nothing much being offered yet.