Menzies/de Decker - We mentioned Mike's game above, Cameron came through a decider against Heta where he had to come from behind with Damon on the hill, who did miss a couple of match darts so a bullet dodged for Menzies. de Decker seems favoured, but it's only in the mid to high 50's in terms of percentage chances, which is pretty much in line with the current market so no value to be had.
Cross/Joyce - Mentioned Rob's game already. Ryan also did for us with a pretty solid showing against van den Bergh, also getting home in 10. This looks as close to 60/40 as you can get it, maybe Rob is trending very very fractionally better than that on form, as such it's another game where there's no value in the market at all.
Price/Nijman - Gerwyn looked extremely strong against Ryan Searle, who wasn't playing bad at all himself (a point shy of a 110 average in his losing legs!), while Wessel played right in the first game of the day and was pushed all the way by Noppert but just fell over the line. The numbers give Price a tiny edge, only like 52/48, as such with Nijman being up around 2.5 on the market we're going to have a play, although I have toned the recommended sizing down a tad based on that Wessel never seems to convert quite as often as he should do.
van Gerwen/van Veen - Michael was taken to a deciding leg by Niko Springer, which we all thought was a possibility, while Gian took one leg less to get through a decent enough affair in a game we'll probably see for decades to come against Josh Rock. The numbers only give Michael a small edge again, we're talking 53/47, and more recent numbers actually give Gian the slight edge, however with big vig on the market and only just north of 2 available on van Veen, we're not touching this one.
Chisnall/Smith - Dave came through against Ricky Evans with little trouble, while Ross was almost as trivial a winner against Wade, albeit coming up against much more pressure. Ross is favoured, and it's by a fairly decent chunk - a bit more than 60/40, boosted by a very strong outlook in form since December. Unfortunately this seems to be baked into the market already, Ross is close to a play but it's not quite there.
Schindler/Anderson - Martin looked phenomenal in dealing with Jonny Clayton, while Anderson fell behind early against Woodhouse but reeled off six legs from seven to get the dub. Gary projects very well here - better than 70%, but how strong do we bet? 1.61 is good, Martin is trending better in the form stats but even those give Ando around 2-1, and 1.61 is better than 2-1, I'll give Martin a little bit of benefit of the doubt and tone it down a touch based on form, homefield and yesterday, but won't be dissuaded from going strong on the twice world champ.
Aspinall/Wattimena - Nathan was last on yesterday and needed every leg to dispatch of Ritchie Edhouse, while Jermaine was another standout performer in taking care of Chris Dobey. Jermaine seems the better player on all stat samples, maybe getting even stronger with form, but it only averages out a touch better than 55/45 so Aspinall is there or there abouts, the markets are giving Wattimena a small edge so there's nothing doing here.
Humphries/Smith - Luke played well in a high quality game against the in form Boris Krcmar, while Michael dispatched of Ricardo Pietreczko for the loss of just a single leg. The more recent world champ is better for sure, but Michael is close enough that he's not that much of a dog and probably has approaching a 40% shot to take this one. As such, the 4 that is available for Smith looks like well worth being a decent underdog punt.
With it being international break, I should be back for the quarters and may also have the time to put up some provisional semis lines.
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