Friday, 11 July 2025

Hood Is Good - Kiel day 2

Small profits made today. Did get a nice little bit on Justin Hood, but that was pretty much for the minimum, consideration for going beyond that was conditional on the Thursday evening line going in our favour which it clearly didn't. Had a moderate thing on Dirk and also a minbet on O'Connor but at huge odds on for both of them that's not really worth mentioning any further. Onto round two, the wheat has been separated from the chaff so we should have good projections for everything. Let's go. Again, we'll go short - mid - long - composite numbers, the last figure is the key percentage you want, you can use the others to get your trends if you value form over consistency or the other way around.

Searle - 64-68-63-65
Heta - 52-47-47-49
Anderson - 73-63-69-68
Noppert - 53-51-51-52
Chisnall - 63-55-56-58
Smith - 74-79-73-75
Clayton - 52-46-46-48
Wade - 52-47-56-52
Price - 65-66-65-65
Cross - 77-80-75-77
Bunting - 67-57-58-61
Humphries - 94-83-79-85
Rock - 79-76-76-77
Schindler - 48-44-42-45
Aspinall - 48-57-56-54
Dobey - 42-44-48-45

As I say, nothing up yet. I'll wait until the morning, then likely bet on Dirk as usual.

Thursday, 10 July 2025

Kiel day 1

Long time no speak, with the advertise break in big things going on, we've got some props to give to Bradley Brooks, was playing some great stuff and has now converted to a Pro Tour title, and we've also hit the Matchplay cutoff, with Smith, van den Bergh and Edhouse being the biggest names in the FRH rankings to miss out. There's some real spicy first round ties (Smith v Rock seems the pick) but we can come to that in a post next week. For now, we've got the Euro Tour back tomorrow, and that pulls our attention. Just refreshing my data, and here's what I'm seeing for the first round matches. I should note that, for the first time I can remember in a while, the last twelve month stats sees someone (Littler) a clear point a turn ahead of anyone else in the game, but that's just an interesting point of note. He's not in Kiel, so we'll ignore him for now. Here's day one, and I'll post the first name winning percentages in short (3+ months data, i.e. to start of April), mid (6m) and full (365 days) projections, along with the overall average. As always if someone's not won fifty legs in a given period, the number will be disregarded as unreliable.

Mansell: N/A - N/A - N/A - N/A
Woodhouse: N/A - N/A - N/A - N/A
Menzies: N/A - N/A - N/A - N/A (note to self to check the spelling of this guy's surname in the data)
van Veen: N/A - 79 - 84 - 82
Wattimena: 54 - 52 - 55 - 54
Veenstra: 25 - 30 - 37 - 31
Nijman: N/A - N/A - N/A - N/A
Huybrechts: 50 - 45 - 50 - 48
van Duijvenbode: 86 - 84 - 74 - 81
Springer: N/A - N/A - N/A - N/A
O'Connor: 88 - 83 - 81 - 84
van Barneveld: 68 - 61 - 60 - 63
Gurney: 58 - 59 - 56 - 58
de Decker: 61 - 63 - 67 - 64
Pietreczko: 69 - 64 - 68 - 67
Cullen: 50 - 58 - 54 - 54

The markets are up on Betfair, but nobody's laying much, I've only had a tiny play on Hood in the last game and none of the markets that have had anything matched on them as of right now offer anything close to value, so it's a case of check back in the morning.