Well that was fortunate

Recalled I had bet on both van Veen and Bunting yesterday, and was fairly annoyed. Then completely overlooked I had gone moderately heavy on Rock, which got me out of the round at break even. So we are not in anywhere near as bad a position as I initially thought. Thank God.

So to the semis. Wade/Clayton. The numbers average at Jonny as having a 69% (nice) chance of winning the game. More pertinently, it is distributed in such a way that is not favourable towards Wade - the form sample is right on that line, and the 2025 sample is closer to 3-1 in favour of Jonny, with the twelve month data being the only thing that drags things back to that glorious 69%.

Now at this point I need to do some sanity checks. I've looked at the consistency stats - yes, Wade is better, but it is not obscenely better. I don't think it'll make that much of a difference. I'm not going to go with the sizing that the model is saying, sure, but I'm still going to put a confident bet on the Ferret.

Then we get onto Littler against Rock, which if things continue as they have been doing in this tournament, should close conversation for the match of the season debate. Both have been playing absurdly well, but in terms of whether there is value, this is hard. This is mainly due to Luke having more or less a three month holiday from ranked events. Full year stats say 70/30 Littler, and then 2025 stats say just a little bit below that, but still better than 2-1 Littler. Since April it says nearly 70/30 in favour of Rock. Betfair is currently trading at a tad shorter than 1.5 on Littler. I've already stated more than once that the form sample for Littler, based on sample size and that he may have been for all intents and purposes sandbagging, may not be any use at all. As such, I think this is a no go, even if we ignored the form sample it's not a Littler bet and it's not a good Rock bet, and the extent of what I am seeing is very much exaggerated in terms of Rock being able to take Luke to dicktown. I've been shoved a small free bet on the exchange, I'm putting it on Josh, but that's as far as I would go, this is just a sit back and enjoy game.