van Veen v Noppert - 54/62/50/55
Noppie won as expected again Menzies, although the margin of victory was somewhat larger than anticipated, while Gian was one where we thought he might run the favourite close and had chances, but he did convert them in what's the clear biggest story so far. He comes in as the favourite, and rightly so, but it seems as if, as has been the case for years, that Danny is undervalued and could represent small value at what we can get.
Nijman v Wade - 69/69/63/67
Nijman overcame any risk of TV hoodoo and got us our biggest bet of the first round in, while Wade played (at least on lol averages) the best he's ever done here, which given the number of matches he's played was quite something. These numbers indicate he should win around two thirds of the time, but he is nowhere near as short as the 1.5 that would indicate, so we will continue to punt on Wessel until the market adjusts and realises he is actually an elite player. Could be just them looking at Wade's first round as well, but whatever it is we'll take it while we can get it.
Bunting/Anderson - 37/43/51/44
Stephen looked pretty darned sluggish for some parts of his match with Joyce, although did recover well enough after that rough first eight or so legs, letting Joyce back into a game that looked won but eventually getting home. Ando didn't have too much trouble against Woodhouse, Luke winning the first two legs but not really doing much of anything after that. Ando projects as the better player, but is better on longer samples so probably doesn't offer any value either way if you're more of a bettor on form. I'll be trusting the composite number which makes it a Gary bet, but only a minbet.
Clayton/de Decker - 52/61/61/58
Clayton looked incredibly composed and solid against Schindler, who was not playing badly in the slightest and forced a real good game from the Ferret. de Decker wasn't great against Chizzy with one of the lower winning averages in round one, but with Dave playing how Dave has been playing in 2025 he didn't really need to do much more than what he did. The numbers indicate Mike might be slightly underrated, although that is based mainly on the long form, look at just 2025 and it's probably not value, and the first round games don't favour Mike either. I'll go with it, but again for more or less just the minimum.
Gilding/van Duijvenbode - 31/28/26/28
Andrew produced one of the better games he has done of late, averaging over a ton in a game with Heta that went to overtime, while Dirk needed a bit of a comeback and a bit of luck on finishing (from both players) to nick it against Cross by just the singular leg. Dirk's been playing well for some time, is trending completely in the right direction, and looks rather undervalued here.
Dobey/Price - 46/42/46/45
Chris pulled away from Pietreczko well in a game where the first half was very scrappy, and the second wasn't really that much better but Ricardo wasn't firing as much back as he did in the first half dozen or so legs. Gerwyn was in a, shall we say, feisty game with Gurney, where both players performed pretty solidly it has to be said but Price was able to manufacture an early lead and serve out enough legs to get over the line in a moderately close tie. Price, despite the seedings, should be favoured here, but not by much, the first round is a concern but Chris has been playing close enough for long enough to Gerwyn that I've got no problem with a moderate underdog play here.
Littler/Wattimena - 84/85/58/72
Littler was outstanding in a demolition job over Ryan Searle, we get the same sort of short sample size thing here as we did in that game, but I think any doubts as to whether Luke is in a bit of a rough spot have been set well and truly aside. Jermaine got through a scrap with Wright, neither playing awfully but seeing Wattimena start quickly enough and then survive a decent comeback effort, falling over the line from eight a piece. If we look at that bolded number in isolation then we should be betting Jermaine, but that looks clearly misleading given the first round, and something more like the longer stats look correct, which tell me to ignore the game, unlike in round one. Frankly there I believed Searle to have the possible A game to actually compete, I don't get the same vibes with Jermaine.
van Gerwen/Rock - 45/43/20/36
van Gerwen didn't do anything special against Barney, but at this stage of RvB's career, he didn't exactly have to, and just got the win. Rock on the other hand was sublime, it's either him or Littler for the pick of first round performances, Smith was down 5-0 early and although he offered more back after the first break to get some legs on the board himself, couldn't handle Josh's level of play. This is another one I think I can avoid. Like with Littler, MvG suffers from a small sample in the short data that isn't filled with great play, unlike Littler he didn't do much to correct it in round one, the raw overall number is a clear no bet, if we put him up nearer the two larger samples, then he might be small value, the true number is probably somewhere in between, which leaves Rock too short still but without the confidence of any edge to go with Michael here.
No comments:
Post a Comment