Wednesday 11 October 2017

Players Championship - done!

If you had a Clayton/Wilson/Caven/de Zwaan last four, then can I have a few ounces of whatever you're smoking please?

Big congrats to Clayton for getting his first victory, Caven managing a semi final from nowhere to grab a Minehead spot, Alcinas made a quarter to do the same, while the likes of Dekker, de Graaf and Dobey did what they need to in order to make it there. Also congrats to Rob Cross for winning the whole thing and getting the number 1 seed

I've thrown together a few spreadsheets, finding out the following:

- There's a huge face off in Göttingen between Alan Norris and Kim Huybrechts to see who can lose the most ranking money on the European Tour through the seeds losing in round 2 get nothing rule, both of them on a tie for £12,000 lost. If they both miraculously win, Ian White or Benito van de Pas could join them in a tie for first.

- Terry Jenkins is, barring playing the Grand Slam qualifier, winning it and then getting out of his group as a minimum, out of the World Championship following James Wilson's final today. It puts him £4,250 ahead of Jenkins for the final seed with all certain qualification for majors counted, with Wilson getting another grand guaranteed from Europe this weekend.

- As such, it makes calculations for Ally Pally a lot easier. The seeds are presently van Gerwen, Wright, Gary Anderson, Gurney, Adrian Lewis, Suljovic, Taylor, Chisnall, van Barneveld, Whitlock, Wade, Klaasen, Michael Smith, van de Pas, Norris, Price, White, Kim Huybrechts, Cullen, King, Bunting, Beaton, Kyle Anderson, Darren Webster, Reyes, Thornton, Cross, Mark Webster, Henderson, Pipe, van der Voort and Wilson. Of those just outside, Kist has the best realistic chance, sitting £7,250 behind Wilson and also in ET12, but unlike anyone else just outside, he has the European Championship in the bag for more potential money. Wilson however looks pretty decent to make it himself, but not a certainty. Regardless, everyone that might be in danger at the lower ends of things is safe to make it from the Pro Tour regardless, barring VERY weird Grand Slam results.

- That leaves the Pro Tour as the alternative, with Clayton now topping the standings above North, Kist and Ronny Huybrechts, who are well ahead of everyone else. Wattimena, van den Bergh, West, Lerchbacher and Jacques all look very safe with just the European Tour to go, all being more than three grand ahead of last man out Martin Schindler, and with more to add in Göttingen (except for Jacques). Richardson, Dekker, Keegan Brown and Lennon should be OK, with all but Lennon also in Göttingen, all are safely ahead of last man in Darren Johnson and last man out Martin Schindler (who can qualify for ET12 through the home nation qualifier, so the biggest weekend of his career so far potentially - Johnson didn't qualify). Dobey and Painter are both just ahead of Johnson as a result of this weekend's minimum grand, but can easily be overhauled by Schindler if he wins the qualifier, while Quantock and Ratajski are both outside but within striking distance of Johnson with a win, and reaching Sunday would put both over Dobey and Painter should they go out on Friday. Nobody else in ET12 is close, the next nearest being Aspinall but he'd need to reach at least a semi final. Just outside are Brendan Dolan, whose Ally Pally hopes may rely on a Minehead run through at least Mervyn King and probably Darren Webster, Robbie Green and Ryan Searle also fell just short, but can't realistically get a seed.

Everything's going to be a lot clearer after this weekend, which could easily have some huge pressure games dependent on the draw, both in terms of the worlds and also in terms of locking in the last few Hasselt spots. I'll hopefully be back late tomorrow with some quick odds, failing that Saturday morning. Regardless, that PDPA qualifier is going to be stacked.

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