Tuesday, 27 February 2018

UK Open betting preview

Now for the bets - I'm going to analyse in the order I've written things up in the previous post. As stated I won't be about to post any live bets once round 2 matches are known, and analysis is based off the eight floor tournaments so far this year:

Chisnall v Eidams/Johnson - Eidams is shorter than 1/3 which seems a bit short given Eidams isn't tearing things up massively, but if Eidams does come through then look to get on in round two as the model reckons it'd be a coinflip.

van Barneveld v Norton - Market has Barney as huge odds on, the way he's playing possibly too huge but he should be solid enough and there's too much unknown about how Norton adapt to the stage.

Price v Wilson - Market has Price 4/7, model has Price at around 66%, seems too close to the line for me.

Norris v McGowan/van Duijvenbode - Line has DvD at 60/40 odds, model has it 62/38, no real bets here. Norris is about the other way against van Duijvenbode in the model, so if he starts as too much of a long odds on punt, go with the Dutchman.

van de Pas/Reyes v Evans - Model has Reyes as a huge favourite given how poorly Benito is playing, yet Benito starts as a tiny favourite, first bet here is 0.25u Reyes 11/10. Evans would be about a 2/1 dog against Reyes if he did come through so that's a marker for the next round, if Benito does come through then unless he slots in at least half his legs in fifteen darts I'd just keep firing against van de Pas.

Cullen v Perales - The Spaniard's darts have quietly been decent, so while he's a dog, he shouldn't be as much of a dog as the bookies' suggest with Cullen being erratic, 0.25u Perales 23/10.

Bunting v Brooks/Quantock - First round line of 4/6 Quanny seems perfect, Bunting should be heavily favoured, take anything better than 1/2 against Chris.

van den Bergh/Evans v Dobey - Dimitri is playing incredible darts and this seems automatic, 0.5u van den Bergh 2/7, this should be a 1/5 type of matchup or worse. Against Dobey, it'd be a bit closer, with Dobey having chances to get home one time in three.

Hamilton/O'Connor v Wattimena - We don't really know how the Hammer is playing, but Willie's been putting in a solid high 80's type game (i.e. higher in conventional averages and not per turn, so call it low 90's), which should be fine but at 8/13 I'm not jumping in. Wattimena should be favoured against the Irishman in round two, but only just, an 8/11 sort of game.

Richardson v Rickwood/Berndt - These two are separated by less than a tenth of a point in the adjusted overall averages, Berndt having the bigger heights which makes him the favourite, he should have more big game knowledge as well so will leave the game alone, against James he should actually be favoured according to the model, maybe about 60/40 - if Berndt isn't being wildly inconsistent then look for that as the second round play.

Brown v Jenkins/Killington - The two have similar stats, but not so similar that the model doesn't throw Jenkins out as a favourite, maybe not quite as much as the line suggests but I wouldn't want to bet on Killington in his first real big game. Brown is in the top 20 of adjusted averages so far and rates to be an enormous favourite, take anything up to 1/4 against either opponent.

North v Jenkins/Nicholson - The model can barely separate the two first round players, Jenkins not even getting to 51%, there may be tiny value on Nicholson given he's had much more match practice over the last twelve months but I'm not punting. North should be value in the second round if you can get 4/6, 8/13 maybe, as the two first rounders are so close this goes for either player.

Alcinas v Walsh/Roy - Bookies have the first game at evens, that seems like it might be worth a tiny Walsh punt given he's playing at a higher standard and hit higher heights in their peaks, but I don't think he can trouble Antonio, who's better than a 2/1 favourite, maybe even snap off 4/9 if offered.

Meulenkamp/Hibbert v Read/Davis - Meulenkamp had an incredible tournament when he had his run at the weekend, with twelve dart legs everywhere. 0.5u Meulenkamp 1/4, I can't see how any of these challenges Ron.

Evetts v Lee/Ward - Ward's a favourite as I thought, but he's quite a large favourite at 4/11 which doesn't look like value for a non-Hogan pub qualifier. If he looks decent and you're offered good odds against Evetts, who's not playing tremendously, then take 2/1 or so.

Aspinall v Pullen/Rice - Aspinall has a 90+ adjusted average, which'll be close to a lock against either player, we know nothing about Pullen, know a bit about Rice, the bookies have it close to even so let's speculate, 0.25u Rice 4/5

Gilding v Clemens - Bookies have this as a flip, probably just on name value, I have Clemens at near 60/40 without any stats from his good Bundesliga weekend, so will add more money here, 0.25u Clemens evs

Evans/Hajimena v Wilkinson - Evans is rated as more than an 80% favourite in the market which I'm really not interested in, if he gets through and faces Wilkinson then he should be about the same again - if the line is closer because Wilkinson came through the PDC route then lump on the rapid one.

Owen v Davidson/Burgoine - Was thinking that Davidson might be the better pick, but he's listed as a dog, gamble gamble, 0.25u Davidson 6/5, Owen should be able to handle anything up to a 90 average from the winner with ease.

Mansell/Meikle v Winstanley/Craddock - Not going to consider even looking at such an unknown amateur game, or think about the winner's match, it's just Mansell/Meikle here, and the stats make Meikle better than a 2/1 favourite, we're being offered evens, let's go, 0.5u Meikle evs

Johnson/Scott v Lowe - Johnson's 1/3 which is a little bit too short to really consider, against Lowe he should be a dog according to the model, not quite 2/1, so set your betting sights based on that.

Shepherd/Hunt v Kamphuis - Hunt looks to be about the right side of a 5/4-4/5 match per the model, the bookies have it evens, not quite enough value for me here, against Kamphuis they both might be in trouble with the model giving Vincent over a two in three shot against Hunt, so prepare to fire if the market makes it closer.

Jones v Humphries/Kelly - Kelly is live but it's only a 2/1 line, so I'm not too interested here, so let's look at a potential Humphries v Jones game, which should be very, very close, their legs won lines are close to identical, so if the market opens up unbalanced either way, get on.

Harris/Mitchell v Barnard/Robertson - Both pros playing good stuff recently, both big odds on, so leaving the round one match, if the two pros did face off I would expect Harris to be a big favourite and 1/2 would look like a great bet.

Noppert v Burnett/Harrington - Burnett is 4/6 whereas I have him with over 70% chances, auto bet territory, 0.5u Burnett 4/6, if he was to go through to face Noppert he'd be a 35/65 dog according to the stats.

Kellett v McClelland/Airey - 0.25u Airey 4/5 is a minor speculative play based on his record, Kellett hasn't been doing too much so if Airey can put up mid 80's and you're offered more than slightly odds against then think about a bet.

Langendorf v Rasztovits/Tate - Michael is 2/7 which is too short for me, that's nearly the sort of price he should be against Langendorf, snap off 4/9 or better.

Hogan/Brown v Goldie - Hogan is 2/9 so lol no, Goldie is actually in the 90's on adjusted average so could be worth a punt if they install Paul as a favourite on name value.

Part/Morris v Atkins/Whitworth - Not betting Part at 1/2 against anyone, Atkins is the same price but not quite worth value, we don't have much on Atkins but if Part is the favourite lay him small.

Jiwa/Mold v Rafferty - Mold seems worth a small bet, 0.25u Mold 13/10, just based on Jiwa being mediocre, Rafferty would rate as just over a 70% favourite against Prakash.

Nentjes v Pilgrim/Jopling - Jopling at 8/11 is really close to a bet but will refrain, Nentjes is very close to a 90 adjusted average, so if offered around 1/2 it should be an automatic bet.

No comments:

Post a comment