Saturday, 31 August 2019

Austria day 2

Day 1 wasn't bad, didn't have much on but what we did was mostly fine, the World Trophy appeared to go alright, Paul Hogan aside, I've only just managed to find the results on the BDO's site and they do appear to have stats up, but it was so opaque to find them that I'm not looking at day 2 there, might re-evaluate day 3 once everything's in the master computer. So Austria it is, and we have:

Beaton/Wilson - no bet here. It's around 60/40 in Beaton's favour, Wilson does a bit better on smaller samples, but with the line around 11/8 Wilson it looks close enough to me to avoid the opener.

Whitlock/van der Voort - 0.25u van der Voort 11/8, appears to be worth the stab, Vincent projects as a favourite over the whole season, although that does trend towards where the line actually is as you decrease sample size. We'll go with the larger sample, betting against Whitlock is rarely wrong these days.

Price/Dolan - no bet, I'd have thought that with Dolan north of 2/1 that the model would spit out a bet, but Price's early form from the year is good enough to make it look the other way season long, and he's still doing well enough over smaller samples that it's only until you get incredibly small where Brendan looks like value. Could happen for the Irishman, but not enough value for me.

Chisnall/Burger - no bet, Dave's 1/6 and while it's probably printing money to stick bets on Chisnall, it just takes a missed double here and there and a good leg from Dietmar there and all of a sudden it's 3-0.

Evans/Shepherd - no bet. Might be tiny value in Ricky, he's a best price of 8/15 and is tracking at 70% vs Kirk season long, but over the last couple of months it's not quite such one way traffic relatively speaking, so I'll pass on it.

Smith/Menzies - no bet. Cameron's 4/1 and didn't really do enough to make me think he can pull it out substantially more than 20% of the time to be worth the shot. Smith might have some value, but 2/9 against someone vaguely competent in a short race needs a bit more data really.

White/Rusty - no bet again. Same prices as the game above, Rodriguez did just about enough to make me think it's not an automatic win for Ian.

Lewis/Bunse - intriguing one. Bunse is 10/3, which looking at season long stats ought to be value, over the year he's about 32% to win against Adrian, but while the perception is that Christian's grown on the circuit over the course of the year, the win chances actually go the other way, so I'll avoid this one again.

Aspinall/Brown - 0.25u Brown 21/10, that seems way off. Nathan's only at 55% season long against Keegan, he's won the eye catching titles but Keegan has quietly played very competent darts and beaten players a heck of a lot better than Nathan this season.

Gurney/Rowby - 0.1u Rodriguez 7/2, this one is just horrible to evaluate in that, as far as consistency scores go, you've got a top 5 player in each direction facing each other. The model looks at winning games, and Rowby's winning games are good enough that he projects as favourite. Just. So you're effectively betting on Rowby turning up half the time. Will he? At least he wasn't in blistering form against Payne, one leg aside, so it's not like he has form that he won't sustain day to day.

Clayton/de Decker - no bet here. Simply lack data on Mike, 9/4 isn't a big price that we can auto punt the underdog, he edged out Dobey who isn't too dissimilar to Clayton, so I don't want to lump the other way either.

Wright/van den Bergh - 0.25u Wright 1/2, this one's a bit like the Gurney game, except a bit easier to rationalise the other way. Season long, Peter's about 60% against Dimitri - in winning games. His A-game is better, but the thing is that he produces his A-game a lot more than Dimitri does, his losing average is considerably higher. I think Dimitri looked good yesterday but there's enough chance that he can't sustain it and then the bet becomes profitable automatically.

Suljovic/Gawlas - no bet. Adam was one of the stories of yesterday, coming from more or less nowhere to reel in Ross Smith with six five visit legs won, nice comeback from a 5-3 hole after Smith had back to back legs leaving a double after nine darts. 1/4 against 4/1, Suljovic at home against someone playing only his second European Tour match should be free money, but you never know. It does seem a bit of an over reaction, Smith was even shorter than that.

Cullen/Humphries - no bet. Luke edged out Hughes yesterday, the market's correctly realised that Joe hasn't been good for a while, but he's just about doing enough over the season that Luke only projects to just win, with Humphries being priced just the wrong side of events we can avoid this one.

van Gerwen/Anderson - 0.1u Anderson 9/2, that seems a bit stingier than you'd normally see at this stage, but I think it's still worth it. Kyle after all had match darts against Michael in the same length of game just last week, is about a one in three shot year long and no shorter sample period puts Michael as anywhere near the 80% plus we need to not bet.

Webster/de Zwaan - no bet. When was the last time a seed was longer than 2/1 to win a European Tour match against a qualifier? Who knows. That might be a slight overreaction, but not by much.

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