Sunday 1 September 2019

Austria ro16

Price v van der Voort - no bet here. Vincent got the win we expected yesterday, as did Price, but I think the run for VVDV ends here. The odds have him just over 2/1, that appears about right, season long I'm seeing him between 25% and 30%, might be slight Price value at 2/5, but there's smaller sets of data where Vincent creeps over 30% so I won't be doing that.

Lewis v Menzies - Great result for Cameron yesterday to take down Michael Smith, Lewis had a bit of a workout against Bunse but got through. Hard to evaluate Menzies, it's the same price as the previous game which feels about right.

Suljovic v Wilson - James edged out Steve Beaton first game up, while Suljovic had little trouble against Gawlas. About the same price as the last two games with Mensur being the favourite, and another game that appears to be correctly evaluated - might be really tiny value on Wilson, particularly if you trim down to more recent months rather than the full year, but it's nowhere near enough to consider a bet.

White v Brown - Ian steamrollered Rusty Jake Rodriguez, while Keegan got an early lead against Aspinall and kind of fell over the line, but still did. This one's priced a little closer, it's almost tempting to go on Brown here - he's rated at 40% season long, and that does rise up to the mid 40's on some more recent samples, so 17/10 looks half decent, but Brown does have a bit of a consistency disadvantage, so I think I'll pass on this and regret it

Rodriguez v Decker - Rowby showed his peak game to see off Daryl Gurney in 10 legs, while de Decker got the better of a fairly low quality matchup against Jonny Clayton, this has Rowby at nearly 2/1 on, while we lack data on de Decker I think there's enough info out there that it doesn't seem like a big misprice either way.

Wright v Cullen - Peter got through Dimitri in a match that started out one sided but eventually went to a decider, whereas Cullen got a surprisingly one sided win over Luke Humphries, not the greatest standard but a win's a win nowadays. Wright's the biggest favourite so far at 2/5, and that appears on the money (again, sadly), every sample I'm using puts Wright in the 70% to 75% win chance range.

Chisnall v Evans - Dave had little trouble with Dietmar Burger, coming through with a solid enough game, while Evans had exactly the same winning leg profile against Kirk Shepherd, only losing the one leg to Chisnall's two. Market has this as Chisnall at near 2/1 on, this again seems fine to me. There might be tiny value on Dave if you look at more recent samples, but again I can't recommend a bet.

van Gerwen v de Zwaan - Michael had zero issues against Kyle Anderson, very good display except in the couple of legs he lost, de Zwaan was equally dominant against Darren Webster but did lose some more legs, he did finish strongly though. 0.1u de Zwaan 4/1, season long it's a mid 30's win chance, it trails down a little bit as you take more recent samples, but it's always well over 25%, so for 4/1 there's no issues

Quick word on the World Trophy - I think we're down to just three real players who can bink this in Williams, Veenstra and Harms, they're the top three seeds and the only three seeds left, I think you have to favour Veenstra from a betting standpoint, as although he has probably the hardest game in the quarters, he's on the other side of the draw to Williams/Harms, and the potential semi final opponent looks easy enough.

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