Thursday, 5 September 2019

ET11 - Some thoughts and some bets

Don't really have the time to do a super in-depth preview, but will just throw out some bullet points:

- That's a super tough draw for van Gerwen to get. Either Steve Lennon or worse, Michael Smith, in the opening game, then probably Suljovic, Adie or Ratajski, then Cross/Gurney/Chisnall? That's horrible. Smith's got to be hating that as well, but hey, you dropped to the qualifiers for a reason and if you're going to be beating MvG, why not make it early?
- Ian White looks a good each way punt at 20's. Clemens (or Siepmann I guess) isn't the kindest qualifier to draw, but Clayton isn't anything to hugely worry about, then someone from Wade/Aspinall/de Zwaan isn't the worst you could get. Do that and you're in the semis, and is White really a dog to one of Wright/Price/Durrant?
- What's a Marvin Wehder and is Dennis Nilsson getting a free win? Sure, 87 in the first game isn't bad but he wasn't above 80 in any of the other games and only above 75 once.
- Hempel looked alright though. Over 80 average in the first two games and over 90 in the last two, should surely give Simon Stevenson a test, at the very least.
- Not a bad spot for Jamie Hughes. Wesley Plaisier and then Joe Cullen is surely one of the easier routes to day 3 you could draw.
- I really want to see a round two matchup between Adrian Lewis and Dirk van Duijvenbode for no real reason.
- We finally get to see Mark McGeeney on the European Tour for a second time. Bradley Brooks isn't a bad draw although I'm sure the youngster will give him a good test, then James Wade will give a good read on where he's at in relation to the upper level of player.

What do we like on the betting?

0.25u Taylor 11/10 vs Edgar - He projects to be a big winner, but that's all consistency, they average about the same overall but I've got to punt for Scott getting slightly better than evens given he's put in some good showings over the last couple of weeks.

0.25u van Duijvenbode 4/6 vs Kciuk - I'm yet to be properly convinced by Kciuk, I'm going to go with the Dutch guy who can be incredibly infuriating but who's putting up very solid numbers this season, particularly when he's been able to take the leg.

0.25u Henderson 5/6 vs Joyce - Hendo's been a little bit quiet over the last couple of months, but Joyce has been fairly quiet all year and playing at a level where this really ought to be an 8/13, 4/7 type of game. Unless John is carrying some sort of injury I don't know about then I'm really not sure why the line is so close.

0.25u Brown 7/5 vs Whitlock - Automatic lay Whitlock, Brown projects as favourite by about the margin where the odds should be the other way around.

That's about it. I might add something on Nilsson if lines get posted but I'd imagine he'd be a favourite and probably too short to consider. 4/6 or there abouts and I'd snap it up. Kuivenhoven over Koch might be tempting, price dependent, although Koch didn't look terrible in the qualifier, Smith against Harris is one I'd be interested to see and might provide value on Smith. We'll see.

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