Friday, 27 September 2019

Gib round 1 summary, round 2 bets

There's terminology in professional wrestling called X-Pac heat - whereby fans boo a character because they personally dislike them, as opposed to just not liking their character. That more or less applies to the first day of darts in Gibraltar - if that fucks off and is never seen again, I couldn't care less. That was a complete shitshow, and for once it wasn't down to the domestic qualifiers - Parody got a nice comeback victory in what was probably one of the games of the day, the kid Hewitt started off very well and just sadly fell apart a bit once 3-1 up, Francis won because Thornton completely forgot how to play darts, and we'll ignore Lopez.

Outside of those, I can't remember a worse day on the European Tour in a long time. Ryan Joyce played very well to do our bet over, Huybrechts did what he needed to do deny Justin Pipe, de Zwaan looked OK, de Sousa was dominant, and Brown/Noppert was a solid game, but there was so much bad darts all round. Here's me thinking that, because my work has an office in Gib, I should try to organise me popping over there for a couple of training days to make them understand statistics round about the time they have this event and have a bit of a jolly. Bleh.

So, day 2, what do we like?

Aspinall/Joyce - nope, Nathan being a two in three favourite seems perfectly fine. If you think Joyce playing well today is an omen that he's playing better than he has done all year, I won't stop you.

Wade/Rowley - nope, Paul at least did enough in all areas that I don't want to be lumping at 1/4 Wade.

Ratajski/Beaton - nope, The line looks alright, Krzysztof is clearly 60% to win at the very minimum, but I don't see him as significantly better at any point that makes me think 4/7 is a good idea.

Clayton/Huybrechts - 0.25u Clayton 4/5 - seems a bit of an edge here. Jonny's a clear 60% in most samples, in some it's not by much but it's enough that we can go with it.

Cross/Kciuk - 1u Cross 1/7 - that seems too short. From what we've seen of Kciuk I really can't see how he doesn't just get destroyed.

Gurney/Wilkinson - nope, I thought Gurney ought to be 1/5 minimum and we can't even see 1/6, so I'll leave it alone.

Chisnall/de Zwaan - nope, Dave's priced as a small favourite, and that how I see things throughout the season.

Smith/Noppert - 0.25u Noppert 9/4, Danny's much, much closer than that. The pressure is hugely on Smith, it's win or miss the Euros (which, to be fair, is the same for Noppert), and I really can't see how he can be that much of a favourite. They're separated by a point season long. That's not enough.

White/Rosenauer - 1u White 1/7, see also the Cross analysis. White's just far, far too solid for Rosenauer to trouble him.

Wattimena/van den Bergh - nope, the model is probably all over Dimi but the overall points per turn don't favour him by a huge deal, so DvdB being a moderate favourite isn't tempting in the slightest.

Suljovic/Nijman - nope, hard to get a true read on Wessel, he played alright against Webster but then really struggled to close the deal, I doubt Mensur allows him to get anywhere near the sort of lead he got in the slightest. 2/9 on Suljovic isn't a tempter at all.

van Gerwen/de Sousa - 0.1u de Sousa 4/1, I was expecting a bit more of a tempter, but they're reacting, so I won't go harder. Still an automatic bet, Jose played great today.

Wright/Parody - 1u Wright 2/11, Parody wasn't completely terrible against Dekker, but managed to get into a 5-2 hole before clawing his way out of it. I can't see Wright doing anything other than getting into a greater, if not better, lead, and then finishing the job.

Cullen/Edhouse - nope, Joe's priced 1/2, which is almost half worth the punt, but it'd be a really tiny edge. Happy to ignore, I think Ritchie's got his big upset for the weekend already.

Durrant/Dobey - nope, very tempting to fire on Chris, and I probably should given he's north of 2/1 and he's projecting in the 35-40% range, but he looked really ordinary today.

Price/Francis - 1u Price 2/17, one does not simply take a 72 average into the next round and beat Gerwyn Price.

That's the lot, a fair few super odds on punts but I think we'll be fine on them.

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