Sunday 8 September 2019

ET11 last 16

Not an overly exciting day 2 - just the two seeds fell, is Willie O'Connor beating Peter Wright really a shock these days? Sure he'd be a dog to do so but it wouldn't be unexpected, Wayne Jones beating Nathan Aspinall, sure, I'll give you that one, but there were an awful lot of games yesterday where you thought "yep, the seed will win that", which is exactly what ensued. So today, the last 16, what do we have?

van Gerwen/Suljovic - MvG had little trouble with Smith yesterday, who missed a couple of doubles that might have held things to 4-4 rather than a 6-2 loss, oh well. Suljovic had no trouble with young Huybrechts, only losing one leg and scoring pretty damned well, Kim averaged 99 in the legs he lost so Mensur didn't have too much margin for error, despite the scoreline. 0.25u Suljovic 10/3, he's fresh off a tournament win and any sort of season long to shorter sample sees this as at 30% minimum for Suljovic, passing 1 in 3 in places. The market's slowly adjusting so we've got to keep hitting the lay MvG button until it's properly adjusted.

Lewis/Ratajski - Adrian saw off Dirk van Duijvenbode easily enough in what was a pretty ugly match lacking in real quality, while Ratajski needed every leg against Keegan Brown, much better game but maybe Krzysztof could have finished it slightly sooner, having let Keegan get four legs in six visits. Mind you, Keegan averaged 98 in the five legs he lost, so maybe he could have nicked one that Ratajski won? The Pole is the small favourite in this one, I think that's a fair enough assessment, picking a few timescales and he's generally in the high 50% range for winning chances, touching the low 60's in places. 7/10 isn't that tempting.

Gurney/Cross - Daryl got involved in an up and down game against Hendo, winning in 10 legs where many legs were won fairly comfortably by both sides, while Cross wasted no time in whitewashing a happy to be there Marvin Wehder, although the last two legs of those were horrific. Cross is just the right side of 1/2, I'm not sure that I'm tempted by that. Cross in longer samples is well over 70%, but drops just below that in more recent samples, which if you also factor in Daryl's far superior consistency gives me enough doubt not to fire on Rob in this one.

Chisnall/Evans - Dave won the first game of the day 6-2 against Ryan Meikle, instantly forgettable with Dave only winning one leg in par and Ryan barely averaging 80 in those legs. Ricky didn't have too much trouble with Karsten Koch after going 2-0 down, a couple of decent holds in the mid section but other than that it was an unremarkable game. Dave's 4/7, season long I'm seeing just short of two out of three winning chances for him, and I'm not seeing anything out of the ordinary if we filter down to more recent form, so another no bet.

White/Clayton - Ian was clinical against Clemens, just the one real good leg to break in four visits, but everything else was top notch. Clayton needed ten legs to see off Scott Taylor, not too bad in the legs he won, but those he lost could have been better, Scott was never really threatened on his throw until the decisive leg. Tough one to read given the 1/2 White - 7/4 Clayton line, season long on winning legs Clayton is right up there with White's winning legs, being in the high 40's or on parity for any decent sample, it's just Clayton is three points worse on consistency ratings, so it's a question of whether you trust Clayton not to gift Ian any cheap legs, which looking at yesterday isn't something I'm wanting to put faith in.

Wade/Jones - James was alright against Bradley Brooks, 6-2 win with no real pressure given Bradley missed doubles to allow the first break, and then a lot more for the deciding leg. Jones got the big story of yesterday, dumping out Aspinall 6-3, with much the same story for him as year long - pretty good when he's won legs, mixed in with some right filth to lose them. Wade's shorter than 1/3, seems about right - I'm seeing Wayne generally in the high 20's to low 30's to take it, which excludes any consistency problems. I don't want to gamble on Wayne to keep producing good legs often enough against someone as ruthless at punishing mistakes as Wade.

O'Connor/Cullen - Willie edged out Wright 6-5, goot back and forth game with just the one break each, while Cullen was the recipient of Jamie Hughes going 3/14 on doubles to nick in and take fairly slow legs repeatedly, it was 6-3 but could easily have been 6-3 the other way. Bookies can't split them, which I thought was a bit surprising given their relative levels of form all year, but checking the stats there's not a great deal between them, so nothing here again.

Price/Durrant - Pair of 6-3 wins here, Price over Stevenson, who put together three good legs to win but otherwise wasn't at the races, while Durrant saw off Harris, swingy one where Duzza went from 4-0 to 4-3 before taking it down. Market finds it hard to separate the two, but I think I can - 0.25u Price 10/11, he's around 60% for most samples, if not more, and he's 2-1 this season against Glen, so I'll add that one to the mix.

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