Sunday 29 September 2019

Gibraltar last 16, Challenge Tour

Hmm, fifteen of sixteen seeds won yesterday. Have a wild guess which seed lost (clue: look at yesterday's bets).

Fortunately, all the big priced favourites won yesterday (and, as I'd also put them all into the handicaps, they nicely covered any losses), so we're only down about a third of a unit. Today we have:

van Gerwen/Aspinall - Ah. The market is finally adjusting. Nathan's only 3/1. I still think that's worth a small stab, 0.1u Aspinall 3/1, he played really well against a resurgent Ryan Joyce, and season long this rates to be more a 2/1 game than 3/1, but I'll temper the bet sizing given van Gerwen was also very good against de Sousa yesterday, who really should have taken a 4-1 lead and probably held on from there.

Wright/Suljovic - Bookies have Wright as only a small favourite, you say? It's tempting to go with Wright really, while you can read little into either from yesterday given the quality of opponent they faced, Wright was clinical whereas Mensur was a bit sluggish. I think this ought to be around 4/6 rather than 4/5, it's extremely close to being a bet and I wouldn't blame you if you went with Snakebite on this one.

Wade/Huybrechts - Wade cruised against Paul Rowley, Huybrechts just got the one break he needed against Clayton and held from there, it's a huge game for Kim as a win gets him in the Euros if various people's Twitter maths is right, the PDC is at least saying the same. That's the only thing still on the line with all the seeds who are already in winning, it's either Huybrechts or Ross Smith in the last spot and it's all on this game. Wade's just the right side of 1/2, that I think is fair - season long Wade is slightly better than that, more recently Huybrechts is, will Kim handle the pressure of what is effectively an £8k shootout?

Chisnall/Wattimena - Dave was in a dogfight with Jeffrey de Zwaan, every leg going with throw, Chisnall not really giving JdZ a chance to break, whereas Jeffrey gave some chances back - which Dave finally took in the decider. Wattimena beat Dimitri van den Bergh comfortably enough, a combination of taking advantage of a couple of slightly sloppy legs and putting his foot down in other spots to deny chances. The market has this 2:1 in favour of Chizzy, I think this is worth a small stab - 0.25u Wattimena 2/1, season long I've got him very high in the 30% bracket, and since the Matchplay he's well into the 40's.

White/Smith - Apparently Smith is in already after beating Noppert. I must have had one £2k exit not counting when it should have, silly silly PDC rules confusing everything. Still, it is what it is, he handled Noppert very easily (stop missing doubles Danny), while White beat Rosenauer by the same 6-1 scoreline. Market can barely separate them, I think we can go with 0.25u White 19/20, while season long that line looks fine, as we get to smaller and smaller form based samples, things swing way into White's favour. Since the end of June he's at 60%. Since mid-August there's a crazy 75% chance of White to win!

Ratajski/Cullen - Krzysztof beat Beaton in not a brilliant game, Cullen beat Edhouse in one that looked a little bit better. Market again has this really close. I don't think I can bet this one. Season long Ratajski has a small edge. More recently, Joe has a small edge. Not much to choose between these really.

Gurney/Durrant - Daryl was given a decent test by Carl Wilkinson, but got home 6-4, whereas Glen beat Chris Dobey by the same scoreline having been 4-1 down, playing an exceptional second half of the match. Bookies again can't separate them (there's five games where the favourite is 5/6 or longer, jesus), this seems fair enough to me.

Price/Cross - Final match now, Gerwyn whitewashed David Francis as expected, Cross meanwhile allowed Kcuik to get three legs and really didn't play well in the slightest. Another game where the market can't split them, I do agree it's tight, and it looks tight throughout all samples - there might be slight value on Price at 11/10 as there's occasional spots where he creeps into the mid to high 50% range, but I'm not going to push it as I can't see Rob playing that badly twice in a row.

But let's ignore Gibraltar - it's all about the Challenge Tour, and the race for the worlds, tour cards, UK Open entries etc, here's how things stand after yesterday:

This is everyone within two wins of the second spot (i.e. a tour card spot). They've just got under way, Edhouse hasn't made it back from Gibraltar so he's done, I really hope that Rydz can close this out after getting the win in the second event yesterday (over Cody Harris, move a grand from Rydz to Harris and that race is so much tighter). There'd be a good story for just about anyone who's really in the running (from Lynskey upwards really) to get a card, so good luck to everyone today.

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