Sunday, 8 September 2019

ET11 quarters - last 16 could have been better

Not that I have any complaints. Can't do anything about that scoring from Duzza, jesus christ. Maybe Suljovic could have hit either of the darts he had at his favourite double to make it 4-4 vs van Gerwen? Who knows.

So we're down to 8, and it's MvG/Ratajski, Cross/Chisnall, Clayton/Wade and Cullen/Durrant. Let's look at these one by one:

- Ratajski's 4/1. That's really a bit silly I think, Krzysztof is, looking at my database, in the top 8 for points per turn this season. Consistency between the two is comparable, so I think looking purely at winning legs is a perfectly reasonable thing to do, and in those Ratajski is always above a one in three shot, floating around the mid to high 30% range, so 0.25u Ratajski 4/1 looks fine to me, it could be one of those tournaments where we pin everything on day one and then give it all back on anti-MvG value bets, but if it is, so be it. Krzysztof's looked pretty damn consistent all weekend, he might need to find a twelve from nowhere at some point, but it's not as if he lacks power season long.

- Cross/Chizzy's an interesting one, in that they've met three times this season and Dave's won the lot of them. Those were all on the floor though, the Euro Tour might be different. Cross looked alright against Gurney, don't think he ever found top gear at any point, Chizzy was a bit more polarised in a routine win over Ricky Evans but was getting quite a few bounce outs, the bottom line is that Dave's floating a little bit higher in win chances against Cross than Ratajski is against van Gerwen - always high 30's, on some time frames, just into the 40's. Again, their consistency is real comparable, so I think this is fair - 15/8 is out there which I don't think is quite enough.

- Wade against Clayton could be decent - or maybe not, Clayton more or less scratched out the win, only finishing one leg in under 15 darts, all the quality was from White but he just had one sluggish leg for a cheap break and then a couple where he missed a double. Wade's game against Jones was odd, he was two down but then put the afterburners on to lead 5-2, couldn't quite get over the line and then needed to fade tops for a 160 from Jones for the match. This is only just on oddschecker but I'm seeing Wade installed as just short of a 2/1 favourite, which I think is a bit short - Clayton's 6/4 and I'd want a bit more than that to think about punting on him, season long he's around 40%, but from around late-April, once you get past that Barnsley double header for Wade, it looks a lot more flippy. If someone chucks out 7/4 or longer, I think it's worth a nibble.

- Finally it's Cullen against Durrant, Joe looking much, much better in a 2-0 down to 6-3 win over O'Connor, with a two leg 21 dart barrage (which, obviously, 365 was down for), while Duzza beat Price by the same scoreline averaging 110, which is quite large. Glen's about a 2-1 favourite season long, but trim out the first couple of months and he floats around 55-60%, which makes 0.25u Cullen 5/2 worth a bit of a play (might be slightly longer but I've only seen 365 put the prices up in the immediate aftermath). If I'd not seen Joe play as he did earlier today I might fade it given Glen's form, but he's a confidence player and that level of play from earlier makes me think he'll get home enough to make this a decent play.

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