Tuesday 10 September 2019

PC24 - how do we pick the value

Those of you who follow me on Twitter might have noticed me posting up six names that I'd gone on each way today, which included Gerwyn Price at 25/1 and Jose de Sousa at 150/1, who happened to be the finalists. How do we pin this sort of thing? If you recall just over a couple of months ago, I was able to get both the finalists in the one Ratajski won, so there's got to be some sort of art to it, so let's try and put some sort of science to it. Let's export from my database for the last six months (we'll say after the UK Open) after sorting by points per turn, then let's do the same for the last three months (not that it's in my database, but we'll say after the World Cup). Let's say whoever's top gets 1 point, second gets two, and then we get down to Michael Barnard and Terry Temple at 128 in the lists (hey, Barnard won a game today!). Add the two together, sort by that ascending, copy the odds in (I've just pasted from 365 so better might be available elsewhere), and see what things look like. It's a bit like this for tomorrow:

You can kind of see why I went for Price, obviously his odds have shrunk after today, and then you can definitely see why I went for de Sousa, whose odds have basically halved in the space of a few hours. I'd probably ignore Price tomorrow given the odds have shrunk, and maybe look at White instead at a nice price of 28's, Ratajski's about the same, while de Sousa still has to be tempting even at the new reduced odds. Just look at who has better odds than people around them and go with it - Noppert has to be a tempter, you can see why I went for Clayton and Clemens, maybe I shouldn't have gone for Dobey today but what the heck, Chris is due.

The one other thing that we should try to look for is who's in a decent section of the draw. Looking at Burton on Twitter, MvG is obviously seeded 1, Wright is 6 and Cross is 14. There's then a bit of a drop, but with Wright and Cross in the same quarter of the draw and scheduled to meet at the quarter final stage, if you're looking at picking someone who's seeded, you want to avoid the 3/11/19/22/27/30 like the plague, as they'll have to go through both Wright and Cross, which I'd rather avoid, thank you. So no Price (that makes the quarter even harder to get three of the top four), no Durrant (jesus), Hughes, Dobey, Hopp or DvdB. Let's not go there at all. de Sousa is number 33 - so if anyone withdraws late, he'd slot into the van Gerwen section, so let's not try that.

White? Clemens isn't ideal, Smith or de Zwaan then Gurney/Lewis/Noppert/VvdV, so maybe we should look at the Chisnall section. It's looking like Chizzy/King, Wattimena/Bunting, Wade/Hendo and Clayton/Beaton. That isn't anywhere near as bad. Maybe Jermaine is worth a stab, he's been knocking on the door, 80's isn't horrible, but I think I'd stick with Clayton at a longer price as I did today.

So let's go with:

White (28/1) - I don't particularly envy his run out, but he's very, very good, and if he can punch through to the quarters he's got to be extremely live to make the final.
Ratajski (33/1) - he's got a decent run to the quarters, then he'd need to face MvG but he's definitely live for that, in some ways it's better to face sooner rather than later, MvG could easily come unstuck against Aspinall in any case.
Noppert (80/1) - I don't think he truly needs to fear Adie in a board final, Gurney isn't the worst last 16 opponent, the quarters might be hard with the White section having a few decent names, but he wouldn't need to up his game that much.
Clayton (100/1) - if he can get through Beaton, and then Wade, he'll have his game flowing by that stage, Chizzy could easily be pressured and then who knows.

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