Saturday, 2 January 2021

5-0. OK then...

Alright, I thought Chizzy might win, but like that? What the fuck?

Semis are now Bunting/Price and Chisnall/Anderson, I don't think too many people would have called those results at the outset, I think the only player that can really be disappointed is van Duijvenbode who really didn't show up and had a real dartitis feel about his game, was also incredibly concerning to see him twice deliberately hit a clear fat 20 with the second dart having hit treble the first starting on 180. Sure, van Gerwen will be disappointed, but he wasn't that bad, just a little bit off on scoring and missed a couple of key doubles. How good was that final leg of the fourth set though...

So, about today, we've got Price as a near 75/25 favourite against Bunting, and we've got Chisnall as a tiny 55/45 or there abouts favourite against Anderson. That seems I think fair enough - looking at the second game first (if only because I still had Dave selected in the master computer from yesterday), maybe Dave's a bit of a bigger favourite than that. I'm seeing about 65%. 8/11 is generally available, which equates to 58%. That's not quite enough for me, it'll probably be one I regret, but there's a few intangibles such as Ando having been here before, Chisnall not, Chisnall being in clearly the biggest match of his life, and maybe Chisnall doesn't react well to finally getting past van Gerwen for the first time in god knows how many trials. The other game is maybe underrating the favourite slightly, by about the same margin - I'm seeing a straight 80/20, and we can get 4/11, which is again about 7% lower than what I'm seeing. Again I can avoid, we're going to need to put on a decent amount to get a return, Price has already been in a few spots where he's nearly fucked it up, while Bunting is on a complete freeroll and, while it wasn't in the PDC, actually has the experience of winning this sort of long distance game. Price has never made a final here, and has the added pressure of now being the tournament favourite, and also getting to world number one in the process.

The one thing that may also come into play is stamina - at least in terms of the final. For every year since the Anderson > Lewis final in 2016, there's been a day's break in the proceedings, usually before the final but between the quarters and semis on one occasion. We've got nothing like that here - it's quarters, semis and final back to back to back. Will that favour someone like Price? Then again, the players in the top half weren't exactly in long games in the quarters, so if Chisnall/Anderson ends up being one sided one way or another, they're going to have somewhat of an edge in terms of amount of energy expended to get this far. Especially if it's Ando, he had that duel against Suljovic but has only dropped two sets apart from that. Maybe something to think about.

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