Sunday, 3 January 2021

Final bet

0.25u Price 4/5

This comes down to much of what I was thinking about in the previous post. Price is simply in better condition than Anderson, and will be able to go in three straight days in long matches. Look at the end of the Bunting game - last three sets were 3-1, 3-0, 3-1, he simply finished better. Couple in that the projections show Price winning 75%+ of the time on all data since the restart, and if you look at just this current event, nearly 65% of the time, taking 4/5 looks like the side to take. The only real danger is that Gerwyn recognises the enormity of the situation and chokes, but he doesn't really seem like he has that sort of mentality. If anything, Anderson might recognise that he may never get another chance as good as this to claim a third world title, and the pressure might get to him instead.

Couple of notes, some of these are a bit old - Q-School's been pushed back to early February, which seems fine to me, while the governments of the world are having an uptick in stupidity it's not the worst idea to wait a little bit. Premier League will be a straight ten players with no contenders - this also seems fine, it was an interesting gimmick for a couple of years, but keeping the numbers small in case they need to play some of it with restrictions seems a sensible option.

Who's going to be the ten though? Price, Wright and van Gerwen are in, Anderson will be in by right if he wins and will be hard to leave out regardless, you would think that Durrant, van den Bergh and de Sousa will be in having won major titles, that leaves three spots. If we go down by order of merit, we're looking at:

Cross - would be in if Anderson loses, assuming they keep the top 4 in by right, otherwise I think he's out
Chisnall - possibly? Worlds semi, Grand Prix semi, hasn't been in for a few years but the ranking is up there, would certainly shake things up a little bit and the scoring checks a few boxes
Aspinall - has he done enough on TV this season? He made the final this year but has otherwise been disappointing
Wade - got to be in with a shout. Two major finals, seemingly playing back to his best
Smith - another worlds choke probably cost him, Matchplay semi I doubt is enough?
Gurney - only really had a run at the worlds, seems tricky to make a case

We're then looking at those who've had a good season or good runs outside of the top 10 - next down on the list was White but he's not getting in. Ratajski is clearly good enough but he's not getting in either. Cullen and Bunting are the next two but I don't think they've done enough. You're then looking at the likes of a Petersen, van Duijvenbode, Heta, that sort of thing - but I think those'd work great as challengers, but not on the main tour.

Really hard to call. At least they've indicated they'll tell us tonight, so we can pick the second/third division soon after.

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