Friday, 1 January 2021

QF bets

Going to have to be quick here:

Ratajski/Bunting - Krzysztof comes in correctly as a favourite in the 65/35 kind of range. That may be a slight underestimate on the projections, I'm seeing him as slightly over the 70% bracket, but I'm reluctant to bet for a couple of reasons. Firstly, this is unknown territory in terms of length of match for Ratajski, he's won the World Masters but those sets were only best of three legs. Secondly, this is a more important game for Ratajski, he can push into the top 10 in the world and perhaps make a case for a Premier League spot. Bunting's already done more than expected, and in having won Lakeside he's had experience of long set play events (as well as being a previous quarter finalist here). No bet.

Anderson/van Duijvenbode - Gary's the tiny favourite in the market at 5/6 with Dirk just odds against. That feels about right to me - the projections say 56% Anderson, which is close enough to make it a clear no bet. Dirk's come through three incredibly tight games and I wonder how much it's taken out of him, by comparison Gary only had the game against Suljovic which was a real tussle, Devon put up no resistance and while Razma played well to open up, Madars never really got into a spot where he could win the match. Chuck in Gary's added experience in this kind of spot and I think the line seems just fine.

Price/Gurney - Market is saying 70/30 Price in this one, which seems pretty much spot on. I'm seeing just shy of 75%. There's a few competing factors here - with the bottom half of the draw being opened wide up, the pressure is on Gerwyn to reach a first world final, but at the same time, Daryl has a huge opportunity to rescue a season and push back up towards the top ten, and has never been beyond this stage of the worlds himself. No bet here.

van Gerwen/Chisnall - Most one sided game in the market - van Gerwen is shorter than 1/4, but can he win more than 80% of the time? I really don't think so. He was pushed all the way by Cullen, and in terms of their scoring powers, Chisnall and Cullen are separated by just one hundredth of a point per turn, just with Dave being a bit more inconsistent, having the slightly better winning legs and slightly worse losing legs, which in set play isn't necessarily a disadvantage. 0.1u Chisnall 4/1, he's frankly close enough in quality that he should win this more than 30% of the time, the only worry is any psychological issue that may be there given the huge number of defeats MvG has put on Chisnall. Just look at the dartsdatabase head to head, it's not been updated in a while but it's not pretty reading.

That's the lot, be back later with semis.

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