Monday 3 January 2022


Good to get a little bit back by Wright winning yesterday, who'll now play Smith in the final. I am not 100% sure why the market is as close as it is, with Wright being a best price of 4/5 (Paddy Power, Betfair) and Smith being evens in many places with 11/10 being widely available. Looking at season long data, Wright projects to win a second world title slightly more than 60% of the time - which is not quite enough of an edge to consider betting him, but it definitely seems slightly off, I'd have expected pricing of 8/13 and 11/8 or something like that.

I guess it's down to how Smith has played in the tournament as a whole, he's scoring ever so slightly more than Wright is (it's only a quarter of a point though), which is good for second in the tournament among players who won their opening match only behind Clayton, who he obviously beat. That would give Smith the tiniest edge at around 53% if you just look at the ~150 legs they've won between them. That's a decent enough sample size to consider as an alternative, but that's only roughly the same differential in line if we were to consider taking the 11/10 as if we were to look at taking the 4/5 on Wright season long. As such, somewhere in the middle I guess is fine, no major mistakes are being made so I can't recommend any plays.

As for the quality of the event as a whole, take a guess at how many more points per turn have been scored on average in the worlds as compared to season long data. For the record, that includes all Pro Tours and Euro Tours, the back end of Challenge and Development Tours, regional tours where available (basically just seems to be Nordic/Baltic) and any WDF data where available at a high enough level.

A twentieth of a point. Not a lot, is it?

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