Sunday 27 February 2022

ET1 quarters tips

Nice couple of little earners in round three, the additional ones I was going to bet all lost, so good job not recommending them as actual plays - data now fed into the model, let's have a quick look:

Aspinall/Wade - Thinking we should go with Nathan again in this one at slightly odds against. Wade looked very good against Huybrechts, albeit with figures skewed by hitting two huge outs, Aspinall looked almost as good, we're seeing a big 64% chance on data since July, so with fears that Aspinall might be a bit rusty seemingly gone, I think we can go with this one, 0.25u Aspinall 11/10

Noppert/Price - Danny looked reasonably competent, van Gerwen wasn't quite on his top level but Danny missed a couple of chances as well, Price didn't really give Heta much of a chance at all outside of the first leg to get anything going, market favours Price around 70/30, I think it should be nearer 60/40, I'm just going to go small as Price hasn't looked like he's going to show a B-game this weekend, which I think we kind of need in order for Noppert to convert. 0.1u Noppert 5/2

van den Bergh/Clayton - Dimitri continues to look very good, while Clayton kind of got away with one again, blowing a 3-1 lead and then needing to come from 4-3 down. Market has this moderately close with Clayton around the 55-60% range, the model is actually giving Dimitri the edge, it seems counter intuitive but it is what it is, 0.25u van den Bergh 13/10, we've got about the same edge as the previous game, but going larger given that Dimitri has looked good and Clayton a bit shaky.

Wright/Smith - Peter got ahead heavily early, Niko showed some flashes but was always a visit behind, Michael got the job done against Dirk really easily, only the one bad leg which he took anyway, Dirk only getting the leg he won with a four visit kill. Peter's 8/13 and Michael the converse, that I think is favouring Wright a little bit too much, but it's not enough to consider betting Smith, I'm only seeing him at 43% and I'd need 3-4% more before I could think about going with it at this price. If we could get 15/8 I'd go with it for sure.

Highly unlikely I post anything for the semis, but back later with new rankings.

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