Sunday, 27 February 2022

ET1 round 3 tips

Down to exactly break even on the event as Vincent's levels dropped off a bit and Woodhouse, well, that didn't go well either. Eight last sixteen games, short on time so rapid firing these:

Cullen/Aspinall - Nathan was one player we wanted a data point on, didn't look in the greatest form but got it done, Joe wasn't really pushed by Madars at all and looked a fair bit better than Nathan did, and comes in at around a 65/35 favourite. Model is actually saying to bet Aspinall and that he's the stronger player - I'm not overly sure on that given Nathan looks rusty right now and Cullen is in the form of his life, but maybe Nathan has shook off that rust and can play how he was doing prior to the worlds? 0.1u Aspinall 6/4, I don't like it in context that much so will just go with the small play and see what happens.

Wade/Huybrechts - James looked his usual competent self with a couple of flashes, that was easily enough to handle a bit of a below par VVDV, Kim was well ahead of Devon, who got a couple of decent legs to make the scoreline look a lot closer than it really should have been. Markets have this fairly close with Wade the small favourite, I've got this pretty much even money, 6/5 on Kim isn't quite enough to go with it, if 6/4 was on the table I'd go for it. Maybe I could just go a small play again? Nope, checking 2022 data and Wade looks a little bit better over shorter form, so I won't despite Kim being one of the better ones this weekend to come through two rounds.

van Gerwen/Noppert - Danny was well in control against King, had a couple of real bad legs to make the scoreline look closer again, but did get over the line 6-3, van Gerwen was in a good match with Keane Barry, down a break but broke straight back and didn't let the youngster have too much of a look in after that. I think we have to take Noppert here, 0.1u Noppert 12/5, his level of play is good enough that he ought to come through easily more than one in three, just the lack of match practice lowering the bet sizing.

Price/Heta - Damon did what he needed to against Gurney, but will likely need to tighten up his game a little bit so as not to allow Price too many easy break chances which Daryl couldn't exploit. Gerwyn was down 2-0 to Edhouse, but turned it around with Ritchie spurning some great chances in the mid game to open up a big lead. Market thinks Price a little bit better than two in three, maybe Damon's got a little bit more of a shot than that, particularly when looking at 2022 stats where he's playing exceptionally well. I will pass on this, don't think Gerwyn is acca safe at all.

Raman/van den Bergh - Brian edged out Jose de Sousa who missed at least one match dart, Dimitri didn't have too much of a problem against Mensur, just dropping the one leg and not doing anything wrong at all. We've got really limited data on Brian, I'm not sure whether 11/2 is harsh or not. Possibly not, he's not done a great deal in either match so far to make me think he stands any real shot against Dimitri if he plays today like he did yesterday.

Clayton/Williams - Jonny was in real trouble against Kciuk, who was up 5-3 but didn't get a match dart, Williams also came through a decider against a Pole in Ratajski, holding his nerve in leg 11 after holding a substantial lead from the early game. Jonny is unsurprisingly a big favourite, maybe Lewy has slightly more of a chance than the 9/2 that is available on Boyles, but I'm only seeing about 22%, which isn't enough to bet it.

Wright/Springer - Peter swept Woodhouse with no real fuss, couple of slow legs but generally enough to get the job done, Niko meanwhile continued a break out weekend by falling over the line against Dolan, was up 5-2 but needed a five visit kill in the decider after Brendan left 61 after twelve. Wright's an even bigger favourite than Clayton in this next game, 7/1 kind of seems like it might be value, but this is often the stage where qualifiers come unstuck. I'll pass it.

Smith/van Duijvenbode - Dirk perhaps surprisingly swept Kurz, got two legs while Nico was remembering how to score then rolled off four straight five visit legs to close the match out. Smith took out Whitlock last on, not the greatest quality game but he did enough. Smith seems a little bit too short, probably looks about a correct price on Dirk if you look just at 2022 data, over a longer period he keeps it a lot closer, more like 55/45 in Smith's favour, if we could get the opposite of the best price of 4/9 on Smith I'd probably take DvD here, but I won't.

That's it, will blast up quick quarter final thoughts later today.

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