Thursday 24 February 2022

Euro Tour 1 tips

So we go to Riesa and we've got a pretty interesting lineup of players - sixteen matches coming in, let's go through them.

Schlichting/Raman - Quite a result for David to get here, entertaining guy to follow on Twitter, but couldn't really crack any particularly high scores in the first qualifier of today to get here, generally in the low 80's which against someone of Brian's quality might be trouble - although Raman hasn't set the world on fire so far. Generally the market's seeing about 70/30 (oddschecker does not have lines up, so just have 365/Betfair/Hills/Ladbrokes up) which if it weren't for Raman's mediocre form, I'd probably take a shot on Brian.

Wattimena/Springer - Jermaine could do with a result here, and this isn't the worst draw he could get, Niko managed a couple of averages in the 90's (only just) in the qualifier, which looking back at Q-School seems reasonable. I think we can take a micro shot here, 0.1u Springer 14/5, Jermaine hasn't looked great so far this year and Niko looks to be putting up enough that he's live at that sort of price. 

Razma/Jones - Madars has looked decent in 2022, scoring just above 90 and is floating around the 70/30 favourite mark, which I think is close to value, Wayne was only averaging 85 on the Challenge Tour first weekend which indicates the Latvian should have a bit of an edge. I don't think 4/9 is the sort of price I want to be jumping over. Don't hate it.

Schmutzler/Gurney - Fabian was able to get moderately deep in one Dev Tour, but didn't win a leg at the stage where I track for the database, if anything I think he might be a touch overrated at this stage. Gurney by contrast has looked good, but not taking 1/5 good.

Gawlas/van der Voort - First game we have between tour card holders, so we can actually look at a bit more data. Through what they've done in 2022, Adam looks to have a bit of an edge at just shy of 60%, but if I pull back to since the summer it's more 2-1 in favour of Vincent. Market is seeing Vincent as a little bit more than a 60/40 favourite, this seems just fine to me.

Woodhouse/Boulton - Real intriguing one between two players who've been around the lower reaches of the 64 for some time now, so the data we have is pretty solid, with the market somewhere between flip or small edge to Andy, if we can find anything solid we'll have a bet. Since last summer, the edge looks to go to Luke, but only just, in this year it's kind of flipped the other way. Can't see anything diving into more specifics, so will pass this one. Ought to be a good watch.

Barry/Meulenkamp - Similar here. 2022 data is extremely weird, it heavily favours Ron in the projection but the consistency is off the scale (to the point where I checked everything again to make sure I've not made a data entry error), since the summer it's more even. I'll look at since the summer - that shows Keane with just shy of a 60/40 edge, and most places are showing 4/6. I'll leave this alone as a result.

Searle/Edhouse - Yes, because this is going on ancient rankings, Searle is not seeded but Petersen is. Go figure. Edhouse ought to be a solid test, may be slightly undervalued in the market, but Searle's still good to take it a clear 70-75% of the time so only just being able to get 3/1 isn't tempting.

Williams/Nilsson - Lewis is continuing to look solid early this season and had some nice Dev Tour results. Not seen Dennis in a while, probably just going to have a look at the big series of Nordic/Baltic qualies that were held earlier in the month, where he's low to mid 80's average. Seeing 70/30 in the market, I really don't see how he closes this out more than that, but he looks to have enough of a game where Lewis isn't a bet either.

King/Vesgo - After a good 2021, Mervyn hasn't got off to a fast start statistically, but as we've got basically nothing on Janos, no Q-School so all we can do is look back at Budapest last year, which wasn't inspiring. There's enough range for potential weirdness that I don't want to touch King at 1/6.

Hempel/Huybrechts - Let's see if Florian can push on in 2022 after a great debut year, and this will be a good matchup against Kim who's returning to form and looking to get back into the top 32. Hempel's 2022 hasn't been the greatest so far, but that may just be a sample size issue with some unfortunate early losses, so I don't think we can really use that and we just need to revert back to the summer. That would give Florian a real solid chance near to 50/50, but I'll give enough benefit of the doubt to not jump on the Hempel train, despite home field advantage.

van den Bergh/Lukeman - This seems like a sneaky punt here, 0.1u Lukeman 6/1. Over a longer period of time, this doesn't seem like particularly good value, but Martin's off to a decent start to 2022 - he is scoring over 90 overall and over 93 in winning legs. Dimitri's two points better in winning legs and four better overall, but the point is that Martin's playing at a level right now where he has more than a puncher's chance. I'll take that big number.

Cross/Kciuk - Was thinking that there might be the opportunity to go for a sneaky bet on the Pole here, but there isn't. We can't get better than 3/1, which feels about where it should be. Thought that with Rob having won a major in recent memory it might be a bit more one sided than that. I guess not.

Clemens/Kurz - Awful draw for both. We know that Nico's peak game is great, but we've not seen too much of anything since forever, and his performances in the qualifier are hardly inspiring. An 82 average at Q-School doesn't do much for me either. With 4/7 on the table, and with no Kurz home field advantage, Gabriel is a tempting bet, but he's not really done much of anything in the past eight months or so, and nothing much this year especially, so I can ignore it.

Whitlock/Horvat - Market appears bang on 75/25. I have nothing on Dragutin in my database since forever, and with Simon still playing at a competent level that isn't going to give a great deal away, the line looks alright. Mid 80's average at Q-School is enough that he can be a threat, and we know he's capable of short patches where he's hitting twelves for fun, but the likelihood is a bit of a guess right now.

van Trijp/Smith - Danny averaged 83 at Q-School, 85 in the Challenge Tour, and while he did put up a couple of dangerous looking performances in the associate qualifier that got him here, that was so long ago now that I'm not confident to use it. Jeff's maybe a little bit below where he was in 2021 from what we've seen on the first few Pro Tours, but should still take it easily enough. 4/9 is actually a bit of a tempter.

Round 2 once round 1 has completed.

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