Saturday 25 February 2023

Kiel day 2

Slightly odd day one, some good performances, some not so, down on the betting with both the underdogs losing, Wade showing up isn't unexpected and Mioch generally outplaying his opponent but just missing doubles isn't also unexpected on debut. Oddschecker is asleep at the wheel again so just going to look at 365, Betfair and Coralbrokes and go from there.

Searle/Vandenbogaerde - Mario didn't do anything yesterday to make me think he's playing exceptionally well, just getting over the line in a tight, sluggish match which was all holds of throw. Not drawing completely dead at about a 30% chance, but we're only seeing 5/2 which is spot on, and we'd need more than usual given the form Searle is in.

Cross/Dragt - Martijn got through without showing anything special, more to do with the level of opponent than anything. Still too little data to get a real comfortable projection, the 5/1 that we're seeing on some bookies looks OK, maybe the 8/1 on Ladbrokes is a little much and might be worth a small stab, but I won't recommend it.

Chisnall/Williams - Lewy didn't look too bad, especially finishing the game off, but this is an entire different opponent and he doesn't even have 20% chances here. 2/7 on 365 for Chizzy isn't completely out of consideration but I'd need a little bit more. 1/3 I'd probably go small, anything longer I'd look at a standard play, but I really don't see the line going that way.

van den Bergh/Edhouse - Ritchie was comfortable in dispatching Wilkinson, nothing spectacular, just steady play was enough. Ritchie's a bit undervalued here, I'm seeing him as having enough quality to win this more than one in three, being closer to 40% than that mark ever so slightly, so 0.1u Edhouse 16/5 on Ladbrokes, he may need to improve his game a bit from yesterday to realise the equity but he has big TV wins over better players than Dimitri in recent memory.

Cullen/Monk - Arron seemed quite happy to get the win, didn't play badly, but Cullen right now is going to be too strong. Still lacking data as Monk is only just back to the tour so wouldn't want to guess at a true line, but the 7/2 we can get doesn't look like near enough for an underdog play, would need a full point before we even start thinking about that one.

Heta/Brooks - Bradley didn't play great, but Josh just couldn't score often enough, or hit doubles when he could, so the scoreline looks a touch lopsided. 1/7 for Damon actually looks about right, that's just how much better he is.

Noppert/Brown - Keegan looked alright, a couple of sloppy legs but was generally scoring alright in the legs he was losing, maybe it's a different story if Filip was a touch more clinical, who knows. Danny at 1/3 looks about right, I've got Brown at slightly more than a one in four chance, we are not getting anywhere near the price to consider it, or for that matter for a bet to be break even.

van Duijvenbode/Veenstra - Lot of breaks in this game, seems like in many cases Florian was on a double then Richard came back and punished a miss, still Flyers is through and this should be a very good game, the line looks about right with Dirk being around 1/3 or slightly shorter, that's roughly what I'm seeing on fairly limited data on Richard, it feels correct with how well DvD is playing.

Aspinall/Beaton - Steve was probably the standout player of yesterday with all legs won in fifteen darts or less and a 106 average in the two he lost, not bad at all and play like that again would easily see him through here. On long data I'm seeing this as a 2-1 game. Beaton is 11/5. If you think that wasn't a fluke and he's outperforming longer data (it was towards the back end of last year where he did go on a deep Pro Tour run after all), then don't let me stop you.

Clayton/Evetts - Ted did for our bet on Mioch yesterday, didn't look great with just the one leg won in five visits, but he was there or there abouts to punish missed chances often enough. He's not going to get that against Clayton, maybe Evetts at 4/1 is a little long but I'm not going there the way Jonny is playing.

Price/Usher - Graham got the win over Joyce yesterday, not a great performance with multiple seven visit holds, but he's not going to care. Can't see Price losing this one, but Graham's competent enough that we can't really see a play - a best of 1/6 on Gerwyn isn't a tempter in the slightest, and I can't see that Usher converts often enough to take the near 5/1 which Coralbrokes are throwing out there.

Humphries/Gurney - Daryl got a good win yesterday, probably the most entertaining game of the day, and has got to be considered somewhat live in this one with Luke maybe not quite at the peak of his game and Gurney having had a good kickoff to 2023, relatively speaking. Long data says 70/30, we can get slightly longer than 1/2 on Luke which doesn't look bad on paper, but on form maybe there's enough of a shift that it goes to being just the wrong side of a break even play. Clearly not touching the 6/4 or there abouts on Daryl.

Smith/Springer - Niko came through the match with Wattimena with a decent enough showing, fears about form being unfounded and maybe an opportunity to bet missed. Michael is surely going to be too good here, 9/2 on Springer doesn't look like an awful bet, but given the confidence Smith must have right now, I think he's outperforming his larger data sample and get home way more often than the limited data I have says he will (which is about 70% of the time).

Wright/Wade - James looked good yesterday, no doubt about it, and with a repeat performance he can easily give Peter plenty to think about, and that's something the market is perhaps overreacting to. I'm seeing Peter as having 71% chances, and we can get 1/2 - maybe he's not performing as well as his long data (the Premier League being the best evidence we have of that), who knows. I think there's enough uncertainty going in James' favour to not consider what would have been slim Snakebite value here.

van Gerwen/Bunting - Stephen had a good win against O'Connor, who did well to stay in touch after a quick 3-0 scoreline, and now Bunting faces MvG, which I think should be a great clash. As mentioned before, Stephen's a tad underrated, and I'm seeing just slightly over a one in three chance for this one at around 35%. We can get 5/2 which I think is getting close to considering, I would have hoped we could see 3/1 which I'd definitely take for a small play. Monitor the line, maybe money comes in on Michael and shifts it further in our favour. Might throw out an exchange price to see if we get there.

Schindler/Wenig - Final game and it guarantees a German into Sunday (well, there's only the one other one left), Lukas taking apart an out of sorts Ryan Meikle by a 6-1 margin. Schindler should be too good here, the lines of 3/10 that I can see pretty much exactly coincide with the 76% my projections give us.

So just the one play, but there's a few to think about if you disagree one way or the other with my analysis and want to take some which aren't bad, just not big value. Good luck everyone and back for the last sixteen.

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