Thursday 23 February 2023

Kiel round one draw thoughts

The draw's already out, which makes a refreshing change from it being at the last minute, so let's have a scan through what we've got.

Humphries v Clemens/Gurney - Decent first round game between two players who are fairly evenly matched up in terms of rankings and statistics, Clemens is a real slight favourite (smack in the middle of 50% and 55%) but given the injury issues that Gabriel wasn't mentioning and the possibility that he's underperformed a bit, maybe it's a touch of an underestimate. That said, Daryl's had a decent start to the year. Luke ought to be around a 2-1 favourite against either.

van den Bergh v Wilkinson/Edhouse - Not seen a huge amount of Shaun, but he's played decently enough, and has got some OK results on occasions. Ritchie's had a bit more notable success but isn't an overwhelming favourite, call it between 55% and 60%. Dimitri's not an overwhelming favourite if Ritchie gets through, call it between 60% and 65%.

Smith v Wattimena/Springer - Jermaine was picking up his form towards the end of the year, while Niko was doing his better stuff in the start of the year, so while Niko is a similar level of favourite to Ritchie based on the raw data, form based stats might make this more of a flip than first appears. Smith's around a 3-1 favourite against Jermaine.

van Duijvenbode v Hempel/Veenstra - Interesting first round game, Florian's had a quiet 2022, while Richard has had a great start to 2023, and probably has a small edge, around 55%, maybe a little bit more. Dirk's a huge step up in class though, especially coming off a Pro Tour win, and should be a 3-1 favourite again.

Cross v Evans/Dragt - Limited data on Dragt, with only just over 50 legs in the last year that make the database, while the Challenge Tour results weren't great despite making a final, averaging under 85. That ought to give Ricky a solid edge, but it's hard to truly quantify. Rob ought to be too classy for either, over a 70% shot against Ricky.

Searle v Zonneveld/Vandenbogaerde - Nice low countries derby here, which appears to be an extremely close one to call with Niels only having the tiniest of edges, and ought to be moderately live against Searle, having a bit more than a one in three shot, but given that Ryan's just recently got a win, maybe there is more chance for Searle than that.

Wright v Wade/van Barneveld - What a great set of games this is. Wade's continued to be just alright, and should be only a little bit more than a 40% dog against a resurgent Barney. Peter's naturally going to be favoured, but the quality in the opening game is such that it's only between a 60% and a two in three favourites tag against RvB, so this section could legitimately go any of three ways.

Noppert v Sebesta/Brown - Don't know too much about the Czech qualifier, averages in the Challenge Tour was down in the low 80's and the only legs we got in the database were a 6-0 reverse averaging down in the mid 70's. Keegan should be comfortable here, but easily outclassed by Danny, who's probably slightly closer to a three in four favourite than two in three.

van Gerwen v O'Connor/Bunting - Great first round game here, Willie's going to be consistent while Bunting's quietly getting good stats and is probably one of the more underrated players on the circuit at this time, and actually projects at 65%, which is a bit more than I thought it would be. That's actually what MvG would be against Bunting as well, oddly enough.

Clayton v Mioch/Evetts - I only have one match worth of data on Mioch, which looked alright in defeat, and his Challenge Tour weekend saw an 85 average, which against Evetts, ought to see him live although a dog. Hard to gauge how much though. Clayton ought to be extremely comfortable here, one of the biggest favourites we've seen so far at a bit over 75% if he was to play Ted in the second round.

Aspinall v Beaton/Lewis - This is an interesting opener, Beaton's still not going away and Adie's still looking to reassert a position in the top 32, Adie's probably winning this about two in three so Steve's still playing well enough to be live against a quality operator. Lewis is not too big of an underdog against Nathan, I'm actually seeing projections as a basic flip to the closest five percent, so could be a bit of value in this one.

Cullen v Monk/Dolan - Arron's back on tour, not done a great deal yet so tough to really extrapolate what he might do against Brendan, would think he's a solid dog but he's shown a few occasional good legs, just a case of putting it together more frequently. Cullen's started 2023 like a train (PL exclusion told you so factor?), but Dolan has enough quality that he ought to only be about a 60/40 underdog, so Joe won't have it all his own way.

Heta v Brooks/Payne - Limited data on Josh at this stage, didn't do a great deal in 2022 and been a quiet start on the Pro Tour so far. Probably been playing slightly better than Brooks has over that period, although whether Bradley's play against a consistently higher level of opposition will be beneficial will be seen. I'd call it a flip, then Damon should be an enormous favourite - 85% I'm seeing.

Schindler v Meikle/Wenig - Ryan's going to have to come through two home favourites to make the money, we've got a lot of data on Lukas for a non card holder, but it only shows that the ever improving Meikle is about a 2-1 favourite. He's good enough now that despite playing against one of the stories of the last couple of years, he's still got about a 40% chance, so he could get on a bit of a run here.

Chisnall v Williams/Nilsson - Lewy had a down 2022, Nilsson has a decent chunk of data mostly from the Nordic tour and is scoring about four points worse, so let's call Williams a solid enough favourite - 2/1 looks about right. Dave's got to be happy with this draw, a fair line against Lewy would be about 1/5 shall we say?

Price v Joyce/Usher - Ryan's still playing well, although had a '22 with not the greatest of results, while Graham's newly on tour but scoring a few points below, so let's install Joyce as a fair favourite, and call him as having a 30% shot against Gerwyn? He's done this before if I remember rightly, so live.

Checking for lines later.

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