Friday 24 February 2023

Kiel Friday bets

Let's go in running order:

Evans/Dragt - We can get slightly longer than 2/1 on Martin. That feels about right, maybe it's slightly closer than that with Ricky's mediocre form, but with the lack of data on the other side I'm generally going to avoid tips where it feels like it's in, if not the right ballpark, at least the right postcode.

Zonneveld/Vandenbogaerde - Niels is priced as a very tiny favourite in this one (shorter than Mario, but we can't get odds against on Mario either). From the data this looks to be where I'm at, so no bet here.

Williams/Nilsson - Lewy's available at 8/13 on 365, I think that's close enough to be a small play - 0.1u Williams 8/13, not convinced with Dennis's level of play and the break ought to have allowed Lewy to reset. Only small, but think there's a play here.

Sebesta/Brown - Is 9/2 enough to take the Czech upcomer here? Instinctively given the opponent I feel like it should be, but the limited data I've got on Filip is not encouraging. If he plays like he did against Bialecki in the semi of the quali then it's a really easy play, but that seems like an outlier. I'll pass it, but would not be surprised if come 2pm it was the wrong play to do so - even if Keegan wins it.

Mioch/Evetts - I think Jeroen is a live enough dog in this one given Ted's level of play to take a small shot here despite limited data - 0.1u Mioch 2/1 on 365 (literally just moved from 11/5 in the last couple of minutes). This is more an indictment of Evetts rather than an endorsement of Mioch, but coming through that level of qualifier takes some talent, enough that this is worth a small play.

Monk/Dolan - Brendan's big odds on here, showing at around a 75% favourite. If that's off, I can't be thinking it's off by a significant enough amount that there's any sort of play either way.

Wattimena/Springer - Market is favouring Jermaine a little more than I was thinking it might be here, we can get 13/8 in multiple places on Niko, which I think is worth considering. If we'd seen a bit more from Springer recently, then I think I could get behind a play a bit more. The play in the German Super League was at least good. I'll avoid it just based on Jermaine getting back towards his best, but wouldn't be surprised if this is an error.

Brooks/Payne - Bookies can barely separate them, similar spot to the second game with Payne playing the role of Zonneveld. That looks fine to me, easy enough one to avoid, maybe with more data on Josh down the road we can take a firmer point of view and maybe consider Bradley, but we don't have that right now.

Wilkinson/Edhouse - Another one which is more or less where I thought it would be, market is correctly asserting that Ritchie is a favourite, but recognising that Shaun's got some quality and generally putting him in the 6/4 to 2/1 range. Don't think there's anything here, maybe the 9/5 on Shaun on Coralbrokes is getting close, but can't truly recommend it.

Joyce/Usher - Initial thought is that Ryan's maybe priced a little bit too short. We can get north of 2/1 on Graham, that feels close. If we were seeing 5/2, I'd probably be "fuck it, bet", but 11/5 isn't quite tasty enough. Usher is on debut after all.

Meikle/Wenig - Line looks close to perfect, Meikle's 1/2, 4/9, that sort of thing, and we said he'd win two in three.

O'Connor/Bunting - Stephen's about the same price as the above. Thought that might have been priced closer and we'd have a play. Oh well, one to avoid.

Hempel/Veenstra - Market can barely split them. If a bookie is not going 10/11 pick your poison, they're giving Veenstra a wafer thin edge. That coincides with where we're at, should be a closely fought battle with maybe form deciding it.

Wade/van Barneveld - Market can't split them? Seems a little bit off that. 0.1u van Barneveld 10/11, Wade is definitely live but we're only putting him at around the 40% chance range, which I think is enough of a margin to make a small play.

Clemens/Gurney - Another one where the bookies aren't making a decision on who will win, and as we can't split them by much, there's an easy pass on this one.

Beaton/Lewis - They do make a decision on this one, and that's to price Steve as a 35-40% chance player in our final opening round game. Sadly that means that the vig is such that we can't really look at a play on Lewis, 8/15 on 365 isn't an awful play, but it's only break even as far as I can see, and we're not looking at betting for the sake of betting.

So just the three small plays in round one, maybe we could have gone a bit heavier on Raymond but let's just take small steps this early in the season. Back tomorrow morning probably for round two.

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