Thursday 13 July 2023

Matchplay round 1 bets

OK, we've had a couple of PC events finished up and in the banks, Humphries and Heta winning over Chizzy and Joyce (yeah, really) respectively, some quick notes - Chizzy, Dirk and Clayton looked to have put up the best scoring of those that played a significant number of legs, Ross Smith was higher than anyone but had two first round exits. Barney was similar to Smith but a touch behind the other three, while Wade, Cross, Dobey and Heta did alright over smaller samples. Looking from the bottom, Ratajski had a rough couple of days, de Decker wasn't too much better, while Dimitri and Rock were also below 90 scoring for the event. Naturally a few people didn't show, so we can't get perfect current form on everyone, but these might be useful pointers anyway. Let's go through the games:

Chisnall/Anderson - Market can't separate them, over year long form I can't either. Post-worlds, Ando looks marginally better around 60/40, and it's about the same after the UK Open. 10/11 on Gary seems close to a play, but it's hard to count against Dave's play this year, picking up two Euro Tours shows he's on it.

Price/Bunting - Over the last year Price is scoring higher than anyone, but Bunting is good enough that he's still projecting at one in four over a full year's of data, making an available 3/1 look about neutral and Gerwyn not acca safe. Price is performing a bit better than that over more recent form, but not significantly better where 1/4 looks like a good play.

Cullen/de Decker - This actually projects really, really close on full year form, however after the worlds and UK Open, Joe reverts to projecting at about a 60/40 favourite. This still means that the 13/8 you can get in some places on Mike looks like the better play than anything on Joe, but with the aforementioned couple of dodgy tournaments this past week, coupled with this being a big debut event, I'm really not seeing the point in pushing what would be a year long value play with shorter term uncertaincy.

Cross/Gurney - Rob's a decent favourite here - about two in three over full data, since the worlds Gurney pulls it down closer to 60%, but since the UK Open it's nearer to 65%, so with Cross being shorter than 1/2 everywhere I don't see any value there, and the 7/4 or there abouts you can get on Gurney doesn't look like anything useful either.

Noppert/Schindler - Very close game, but one where Martin's getting better of late - full data gives Danny a 55/45 advantage, while samples just in 2023 give Schindler a smaller edge than that, so the Schindler 6/5 side looks like the superior play, it's still not a good one.

van Duijvenbode/Huybrechts - Tough ask for Kim here. Projecting less than 20% year long, it gets a bit better on 2023 form, with 30% in full calendar year data but falling back towards 25% since the UK Open. 14/5 is not a tempter in the slightest, while Dirk is actually longer than 1/3 in a couple of places, which if you trust twelve month's worth of data, isn't a bad play, but nothing I'm going to recommend.

Heta/Rock - Bit of a contrast in form this past week for these two, but then again Damon has maybe the worst TV form of the top sixteen for some time now, so call that a flip I guess, Rock is up at 60% year long for what'd be a debut win, the two calendar year samples I'm using draws it a bit closer for Heta but he doesn't break 45% himself in either spot. Rock being generally available at 8/13 is clearly not of interest, and Heta is also not long enough to remotely consider.

Wade/Dobey - Two players chucking good stuff of late so this should be a good session ender, and it looks like Wade's trending up more than Chris is - Dobey is in between 60% and 65% year long, but drops below 60% since the worlds and Wade gets up as high as 45% if we're looking just after the UK Open. Wade is actually the market favourite, so this trend might be being exaggerated a tad, but he does like this format so I'm not going to jump in on Chris, but don't hate a play that way.

Aspinall/Ratajski - A tight one to call. Year long Aspinall is only at 52% - it does go up by a couple of points for each shorter sample we use, so either he's improving a touch, or is at least not losing as much value as Ratajski is if the Pole is getting worse. Aspinall's only a smidgeon longer than 1/2 so no play there, but I'm really not feeling 13/8 as being a great play on Krzysztof either given the way the projections are going.

Humphries/de Sousa - Fairly easy one to call, Luke is winning titles again and Jose seems like a fading force, with his best work concentrated last year, with the year long stats giving him a bit more than 35%, which would bring 9/4 into the realms of possibilities, but in either 2023 data set he's down at around a one in three chance, which would instantly throw that price out of the window. We can't get better than 2/5 on Luke so while I'm bullish about his chances, it's nowhere near enough to actually put money down on him.

van Gerwen/Dolan - Hopefully Michael's at 100%, he's certainly looked decent when we have seen him at least, but it is a small question mark. Maybe his form is tailing off though - he projects to win one in four year long, but it drops to as low as 62% since the UK Open, and the post worlds mid point in sample size also gives Brendan more than a one in three shot. With that being said, it doesn't feel like Brendan is actually improving, so while there are big numbers available, I'm really, really not wanting to say take 6/1 on Dolan. MvG did look magnificent in Poland and seems very hard to bet against.

Smith/Beaton - Michael was another player who missed this past week's games, but understandable to take a break here and there. This is going to be extremely tough for Steve, but he looks to be playing a fair bit better this year than the markets suggest - over year long data he's down only just over 20%, which puts 6/1 in the "very risky" category, but in any 2023 sample he's actually a touch over a one in three shot! I do wonder if Michael just ups his game back to what it can be as it's a big match as opposed to a leisure centre in Barnsley, and that's something I could definitely see happen, he is definitely not acca safe, but I'm thinking about taking the underdog here more than I was in the match above.

van den Bergh/Smith - This appears really close on paper, and is really close in the market with Dimitri only a paper-thin favourite. I'm going to make a play here - 0.25u Smith 11/10, he rates at 60% in both the longest and shortest sample, while in 2023 as a whole Dimitri does pull it back to Ross only having 55% chances - but that's still long enough to take a price that implies he only has 48% chances.

Searle/van Barneveld - This appears pretty tight when projecting, although it does trend one way as we look at more and more recent form. Ryan's only just a point or two over 50% in the last twelve months, but tips up to 55% and then 60% as we get more and more form based. Barney is the market dog, which is right, but only just at 6/5 which is clearly not of interest, and Searle is not that far superior that we're looking at taking him either.

Wright/Gilding - How form works - Wright is rated at 72% to win in the last twelve months. 61% in the post worlds data. Then 53% in the post-UK Open data. Given it seemed pertinent, I did just quickly add the UK Open in, but that didn't help Gilding's numbers in the slightest. Hills have Andrew at 7/4, which looks like a horrible play if you're looking over twelve months, but looks like a very good play if you're looking over four months. Pick your poison.

Clayton/Clemens - Jonny seems undervalued here. He's up at just over 70% year long, which with prices just being the wrong side of 1/2, makes the market seem accurate, but if you take after the worlds, he jumps to over 80%. Clemens gains a couple of points back if you cut everything before the UK Open out, but either of them feel counter-intuitive given Gabriel was supposedly playing injured in 2022. Clayton is on fire this year and this looks like enough for a play - 0.25u Clayton 10/21

Check back in on Monday before round two kicks off for more thoughts.

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