More last sixteen

So one up one down yesterday, what about today? First up, it seems like the Wattimena value train has well and truly left the station, being solidly odds on against van den Bergh at 4/6. Frankly I think this could be even shorter, most places do see it that way, while I've got him right in the middle of 60% and 65%. Nothing in the group stage makes me think Dimitri is outplaying overall form, if anything the differential between the play is favouring Jermaine.

van Veen against Joyce is next, and here they favour Gian more than they favour Jermaine. I'm not sure about that. Not sure at all. Yes, van Veen's numbers have been spectacular, while Ryan's simply haven't been, and if they continue to play like this rather than historic numbers, the Dutchman should have few problems. Issue is that, while Gian is favoured, I'm only seeing it as maybe 5%, with Ryan projecting solidly over 45%. Their stats really aren't all that different at all. Regardless of how phenomenal Gian has played, we can't ignore that, but we will temper the bet sizing - 0.1u Joyce 13/8

Littler then plays in form de Decker. Here I think Mike is undervalued - but not by a great deal. The odds are showing Luke as having a three in four shot, while I've got Mike as a fraction over 30%. Here it's another one where the difference in tournament performance is notable, but at the same time, maybe de Decker is outperforming his longer term stats based on confidence. I won't go with the play, but I think this will be tighter than the market suggests and wouldn't be putting Littler in any accumulators.

Finally we have Ando and Bunting. This is putting two top six players against each other, at least in terms of how I'd rank everyone right now, but Gary looks better, probably better enough that he should only lose one time out of three. This is enough that the lines of around 8/13 are close to being worth considering, neither's really shown a great advantage over the other in the group stages, I've just got a feeling the game plays out slightly tighter than the projection, which is enough to go from ultra marginal into a no bet situation.

I'll try and blast out quarter final numbers tomorrow morning.